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《经济学人》:中国的房地产泡沫,迟早爆破

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The first signs of a sharp reversal may not show up in prices anyway. The volume of sales tends to drop first, because optimistic developers will try to wait out a bad patch, hoping that better times will return. Despite the 18% rebound in May, most analysts believe sales are dropping sharply.

不管怎样,一旦会有强烈反弹,房产价格也许反映不出第一手信号。刚开始销售额往往会下降,因为乐观的开发商会试图死撑到控市政策不了了之,一心希望好景再返。尽管在5月出现了18%的反弹,许多分析家仍相信房产销售量正在急剧下跌。

Developers can stay out of the market only for as long as they can stay out of the red. As their cash pile dwindles and liabilities fall due, they will be forced to sell, whatever the market conditions. To give themselves more leeway, bigger developers have turned away from fickle onshore financing to international bond markets. The 30 developers rated by Standard & Poor’s, a rating agency, raised about $8 billion of mostly five-year money in the first five months of this year, compared with $8.8 billion in the whole of 2010, itself a record year. Developers can bring this money back into the country, despite China’s capital controls, provided they show a bit of patience and a commitment to build things in unfancied cities.

只有能摆脱亏损,开发商才会愿意撤出市场。随着现金减少,贷款到期,无论市场条件如何,他们也得被迫出售手中的房。为了给自己留有更大的余地,更有实力的开发商已从变数多端的境内融资转向国际债券市场。30家开发商由评级机构标准普尔给予评级,在今年的前5个月里便募集到了约80亿美元的5年期资金,而在2010年里则募集到了88亿美元(次数目被认为是创了纪录)。尽管中国对资本有控制,开发商也可以将这些资金带回国,只要他们对在一些不起眼的城市里建房表现出一点耐心和诚意。

Even so, the debts of many smaller developers will fall due next year. Standard & Poor’s expects property prices to fall by about 10% over the next 12 months, but it does not rule out a “price war” if distressed selling by overstretched developers begins to feed on itself. If China’s property market is a bubble, it may end with a squeal as well as a pop.

尽管如此,许多更小型开发商的债务将会在明年到期。标准普尔预计在未来12月内房产价格将会下跌10%,但如果资金已透支的开发商通过廉价出售房产可以填补得了这些债务,也不排除将会有一场“价格战”。如果中国的房地产市场是个泡沫,最后很可能会噼里啪啦般爆破掉。



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