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《经济学人》:中国经济,正分裂

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China's economy
中国经济

Even splits
正分裂

China does its bit to calm worries about the world economy
中国尽能及之力,平抑对世界经济的担忧

Jul 14th 2011 | HONG KONG | from the print edition

A RUNNER cannot sprint all the time, noted Sheng Laiyun of China’s National Bureau of Statistics, after the release of China’s new growth figures on July 13th; he must pace himself so that he can run better later. Over the past four quarters China’s economy has recorded what runners call “even splits”, keeping a steady pace, lap after lap. It grew by 9.5% in the second quarter (year on year), having grown at a similar rate in the previous three.

中国新的经济增长数值公布之后,国家统计局新闻发言人盛来运表示,赛跑者不能永远在保持冲刺状态,他必须调整自己的步伐以便今后跑得更好。过去的四个季度中国经济经历了被跑步者称为“正分裂”的情形,保持稳定的速率,一圈又一圈的跑下去。(与去年同期相比)中国经济在第二季度以9.5%的速率保持增长,这一增长速度与其前三年的速度相近。

The figures helped allay fears of a hard landing for China’s economy. But they raised some doubts about whether the economy is landing at all. Consumer prices rose by 6.4%. in the year to June. The economy’s pace may be steady. But is it too fast to sustain?

这一增长速度缓解了中国经济硬着落的担忧。但是怀疑论者担忧中国经济是否是正真的良好发展。今年6月份居民消费价格与上月相比上升了6.4%。中国的经济增长速度也许是平稳的,但太快了反而难以为继。

China’s macroeconomists, if not its consumers, can take some comfort from the nature of the inflation. Two-thirds of it was due to food prices, and much of that was due to pork. Farmers responded to low pork prices last year by breeding fewer pigs, some of which have since fallen victim to porcine diarrhoea. That pushed up prices by 11.4% in June alone, an annualised rate of 265%. This has played havoc with many economists’ inflation forecasts. “Perhaps I should have become a veterinarian,” says Andy Rothman of CLSA.

中国的宏观经济学家,如果不是消费者的话,可以从通货膨胀中得到些许安慰。2/3的通货膨胀是由食物价上涨引起的,而期中最大的原因在于猪肉价格的上涨。养猪户以减少饲养数量的方式来应对去年的猪肉价格低迷状况。这致使仅仅今年七月份猪肉价格以265%的年率上升了11.4%。这打乱了许多经济学家对通货膨胀的预期。里昂证券的经济学家安迪•罗斯曼笑称“要是我是一名兽医就好了”

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victim ['viktim]

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n. 受害者,牺牲

 
release [ri'li:s]

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n. 释放,让渡,发行
vt. 释放,让与,准

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allay [ə'lei]

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v. 使 ... 镇静,使 ... 缓和

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n. 捏,一撮,少量,困苦,偷窃
vt. 掐,

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havoc ['hævək]

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vt. 超过,胜过,超出界限
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