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《经济学人》:美国经济面临二次探底?

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America's economy
美国经济

Time for a double dip?
美国经济面临二次探底?

A lousy debt deal, rising fears of a recession, the danger of longer-term stagnation: America’s outlook is grim
面临着糟糕的负债协议,膨胀的经济恐慌,更长时间经济低迷的风险,美国经济前景黯淡

THIS ought to have been a good week for the American economy. The country’s leaders at last ended a ludicrously irresponsible bout of fiscal brinkmanship, removing the threat of global financial Armageddon by agreeing to raise the federal debt ceiling. Yet far from heaving a sigh of relief, investors are nervous. Stockmarkets around the world have tumbled (see article). On August 2nd, the day the debt deal was signed, the S&P 500 index saw its biggest one-day fall in over a year, and yields on ten-year Treasury bonds dropped to 2.6%, their lowest level in nine months, as investors sought safety.

这周这本应是美国经济不错的一周。国家领导们终于结束了财政边缘政策上的荒唐而不负责任的争斗,同意提高联邦债务上限,免除了发生金融世界大战的风险。但是投资者远没有得到宽慰,反而感到紧张。世界股市也发生震荡。8月2日,负债协议签署的那天,由于投资者寻求安全,标准普尔指数迎来一年多以来的最大单日跌幅,十年期国债收益下跌2.6%,达到9个月以来的最低水平。

It is not all to do with America: the euro zone is a mess (see article) and manufacturing everywhere seems to be slowing. But America’s prospects have suddenly darkened. Statistical revisions and some grim new figures have revealed a weaker-than-assumed recovery that has all but ground to a halt. Once stalled, an economy can easily tip back into recession, particularly if it is hit by a new shock—as America’s is about to be, thanks to a hefty dose of fiscal tightening made worse by the debt deal. The odds of a double dip over the coming year are uncomfortably high, perhaps as high as 50%.

不仅是美国,欧元区也是一片狼藉,各地制造业低迷。但是美国经济的前景突然黯淡下来。最新修改过的数据显示,经济复苏低于预期,几近停滞。经济一旦停滞,就很有可能重返衰退,受到新的冲击时尤为如此。由于美国负债协议使原本紧缩的财政更加收紧,这种冲击马上就会到来。明年美国经济二次探底的可能性高得令人不安,可能达到50%。

重点单词   查看全部解释    
innovative ['inəuveitiv]

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adj. 革新的,创新的

 
justifiable ['dʒʌstifaiəbl]

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adj. 可辩解的,可证明的,有理的

 
reserve [ri'zə:v]

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n. 预备品,贮存,候补
n. 克制,含蓄

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reasonable ['ri:znəbl]

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adj. 合理的,适度的,通情达理的

 
ceiling ['si:liŋ]

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n. 天花板,上限

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emerging [i'mə:dʒ]

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vi. 浮现,(由某种状态)脱出,(事实)显现出来

 
threat [θret]

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n. 威胁,凶兆
vt. 威胁, 恐吓

 
prescription [pris'kripʃən]

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n. 药方,对策,开处方

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exchange [iks'tʃeindʒ]

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n. 交换,兑换,交易所
v. 交换,兑换,交

 
institution [.insti'tju:ʃən]

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n. 机构,制度,创立

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