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Hey there! welcome to Life Noggin!
大家好！欢迎来到脑洞大开的生命奇想！
In 1983, a team of scientists, including astrophysicist Carl Sagan, made an ominous and terrifying prediction:
1983年，包括天体物理学家卡尔·萨根(Carl Sagan)在内的一组科学家做出了一个不祥而可怕的预言:
that in the event of a nuclear war, on top of all the damage from the bombs themselves, our world may enter what's known as a nuclear winter.
如果发生核战争，除了核弹本身造成的所有破坏外，我们的世界可能会进入所谓的核冬天。
And this might be so bad that those same scientists think its effects might be just as important as the immediate effects of the war itself.
这可能非常糟糕，那些科学家认为它的影响可能和战争本身的直接影响一样严重。
So what is a nuclear winter, anyway? Well, it's basically the environmental devastation that might come about from hundreds, if not thousands, of nuclear bombs.
那么，什么是核冬天呢？基本上是对环境的毁灭，由数百或者数千核弹导致。
See, these bombs would cause massive firestorms -- especially if they're dropped on large cities -- and the smoke, soot, and dust would rise up to the stratosphere and spread globally.
这些炸弹会引起大规模的火灾——特别是如果它们被扔在大城市的话——烟雾、煤烟和灰尘会上升到平流层并扩散到全球。
And from here, surface temperatures could lower, the ozone layer could get thinner, and we could even be thrown into a global famine.
这样，地表温度可能会降低，臭氧层会变薄，我们甚至可能陷入全球饥荒。
But could we survive it?
但我们能活下来吗?
Well, a team of researchers recently simulated what would happen in the case of a relatively small nuclear winter, and their findings are definitely not good. Sorry.
一组研究人员最近模拟了一个相对较小的核冬天，看会发生什么情况，他们的发现肯定不是很好。对不起。
They imagined a nuclear war between India and Pakistan where the countries collectively dropped 100 nuclear bombs, each about the size of the bomb the United States used on Hiroshima.
他们设想印度和巴基斯坦之间发生核战争，两国总共投下了100枚核弹，每枚核弹的大小相当于美国在广岛使用的原子弹的大小。
They found that the black carbon, which is a major component of soot, would rise to the stratosphere and absorb sunlight.
他们发现烟灰的主要成分黑碳会上升到平流层，吸收阳光。
This would heat up the stratosphere and decrease the surface temperature of the Earth and the upper 100 meters of the ocean -- hence the “winter" part of “nuclear winter".
这将使平流层升温，降低地球表面和海洋上方100米的温度——因此出现“核冬季”最“冬天”的部分。
Be warned guys, winter is coming. And if my calculation are correct, I think that is the 100th Game of Thrones reference we have made on Life Noggin. Congratulations, everybody.
伙计们，冬天来了。如果我的计算是正确的，这是我们在这个节目第100次提到《权力的游戏》。祝贺大家。
The temperature increase in the stratosphere might also cause major losses in the ozone layer -- which would cause more exposure to ultraviolet radiation, damaging our health and our agricultural crops.
平流层温度的升高也可能导致臭氧层的重大损失——这将导致更多的紫外线辐射，损害我们的健康和农作物。
In fact, crops are going to have a really hard time because there will be less rain during a nuclear winter and there will be less time for the crops to grow because of killing frosts.
事实上，农作物生长将会非常艰难，因为核冬天少雨，而且由于霜冻，农作物生长的时间也会减少。
And with the reduction in crops, and possible UV damage to aquatic life, we may even experience a famine.
由于农作物的减少，加上水生生物可能遭受紫外线伤害，我们甚至可能经历一次饥荒。
And these effects aren't short-lived.
这些影响并不是短期的。
Within five years, the researchers predict that the Earth will be around 1.6 degrees Celsius cooler, and around 1.1 degrees cooler over the next twenty years.
研究人员预测地球温度将在五年内下降1.6摄氏度，在未来二十年内会下降1.1度。
And the ozone layer losses will persist for a decade.
臭氧层的损失将持续十年。
And remember: all of this damage was predicted when only 100 nuclear bombs were dropped.
记住：这些预测损失的前提是丢下100枚核弹。
Currently, there are 15,000 nuclear weapons worldwide.
目前，全世界有1.5万枚核武器。
So, if it's 100 bombs or less, it's possible that you could survive the famine and other consequences of increased exposure to UV radiation.
所以，如果是100枚炸弹或者更少，那么你才有可能在饥荒和其他紫外线辐射增加带来的后果中幸存下来。
But if there's ever a nuclear war that's larger, the ensuing nuclear winter might be even more devastating.
但如果是一场更大的核战争，随之而来的核冬天可能更具毁灭性。
So let's hope we never have to worry about that. Because it scares me just to talk about it.
希望我们不用担心这个。因为谈论这件事就让我害怕到不行了。
What do you want us to talk about next? Let me know in the comment section below.
接下来你想我们聊什么？请在评论栏中告诉我。
This episode got me thinking, a few decades ago a cold war broke out between the US and the Soviet Union.
这一期节目让我想到，几十年前美国和苏联之间爆发了一场冷战。
What if that war went nuclear? Our good friend alternate history hub explores that very idea.
如果当时那场战争走向核战争会怎么样？我们的好朋友如果当初中心探索了这个想法。
Simple computer glitches or miscommunication almost led to the end of the world many times, but through just luck we kept rolling axis and didn't blow ourselves up.
简单的电脑故障或沟通不畅几乎导致了世界末日的来临，但幸运的是，我们一直在不停地努力，并没有把自己炸飞。
Yay! But what if in an alternate timeline we did. There is a link in description if you are on mobile.
耶！但是如果我们在另一个时间轴上炸飞了自己呢。如果你是用手机观看的，描述区有一个链接。
As always, I'm Blocko and this has been Life Noggin. Don't forget to keep on thinking!
我是宝高！这里是脑洞大开的生命奇想。思考不要停！
