评论
打印
Check out these two Saudi princes.
大家请看这两位沙特王子。
This one's the 57 year old crown prince,
这位是57岁的王储，
And this one (the one doing all the hand kissing) is his younger cousin.
这位（吻手的）则是他的侄子。
Listen to what the older cousin is saying:
我们先来听听年长的这位王储在说什么：
He’s being forced to give up his power and to pass the crown prince title to his younger cousin,
他被迫将自己的权力和王位让与了他的侄子，
a guy who's almost half his age.
而后者几乎才他一半的年纪。
This is Mohammed bin Salman. In the West we just call him MBS.
这位是穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼，我们西方人都简称他为MBS。
And since this moment in June,
从六月份的让位事件以来，
he’s consolidated power so swiftly and so thoroughly that in Saudi Arabia they just know him as Mr. Everything.
他以迅雷不及掩耳之势全面巩固了自己在沙特的势力，为此还在王国内得了个“万事通先生”的外号。
As crown prince, MBS will become king.
作为王储，MBS就是未来的沙特国王。
And with all of this new power, MBS is seeking to assert his dominance throughout the Middle East
随着势力的扩大，MBS正在努力巩固其在整个中东地区的主导地位。
One of his big policies has been a vehement opposition to Saudi Arabia's neighbor, Iran.
他推行的重大政策包括强烈反对其邻国伊朗。
On that note he's found an ally in the White House.
对此他和美国方面达成了共识。
Inside the kingdom, MBS is also seeking to cement his authority and his dominance over the Royal Family.
在沙特内部，也就是在沙特的王室中间，MBS也在寻求机会巩固其权利和主导地位。
Saudi Arabia's young crown prince arresting hundreds of his own cousins.
沙特年轻的王储逮捕了数百名王室亲属。
Crackdown on corruption.
严厉打击腐败。
11 princes and nearly 40 current or former officials detained, reportedly being held at the lavish Ritz Carlton.
据报道， 11名王储以及将近40名现任或往任官员都被扣留在了豪华的丽思卡尔顿酒店。
Yes, if you’re a Saudi Prince, "jail" is the Ritz Carlton.
没错，如果你是一名沙特王储，丽思卡尔顿酒店就相当于“监狱”。
MBS called this a corruption crackdown and he branded himself as the financially responsible anti-corruption leader.
MBS将这一行动称之为“打击腐败”，还自封“反腐总经济负责人”。
But we’re talking about a guy who recently purchased one of the most expensive homes in the world
然而，我们正在谈论的这位王储刚刚才买下全世界最昂贵的住宅之一，
and who last year spent half a billion dollars on a painting.
去年还为了一幅画豪掷5亿美金。
He clearly had other motives for this crackdown beyond fiscal responsibility.
除了财政原因，他这么大力打击腐败显然还有其他动机。
One thing to realize is that the Saudi royal family is made up of thousands of members
值得注意的是，沙特的王室成员成千上万，
who use public money generated from oil revenues to fund their unthinkably excessive lifestyles.
他们那奢华地令人咂舌的生活方式都是靠石油带来的公款维持的。
So it wouldn’t be hard for MBS to crack down on anyone he wants to.
所以，MBS能够轻松打击任何一个他想打击的人。
Coming into power, MBS' second big move was to loosen the strict moral and social rules of the kingdom.
上位之后，MBS的第二个大动作就是放宽沙特王国严苛的道德和社会规范。
He stripped the religious police of their right to make arrests.
他剥夺了宗教警察的逮捕权。
He expanded women’s right in society including giving them the right to drive.
扩大女性的权力，包括准予女性驾驶。
On the surface, these are progressive social reforms meant to modernize Saudi society.
从表面上看，这些进步的社会改革应该能推动沙特社会的现代化。
But like the anti corruption crackdowns, the move is another effort to seize power.
然而，同反腐行动一样，这一举措也是为了掌权。
Saudi society is built on a sort of pact between the royal family – just called the house of Saud –
沙特社会是建立在沙特王室——也就是所谓的“沙特家族”
and a vast religious establishment, run by conservative Islamic clerics.
与由保守的伊斯兰牧师管理的广大宗教机构订立的契约之上的。
The clerics give the Saud family legitimacy, by giving them their blessing as rulers of the kingdom.
通过赋予王室国家领导人的恩典，这些牧师赋予沙特王室合法的宗教权益。
In exchange, the family allows the clerics to strictly enforce their uncompromising,
王室则准许牧师在王国内严格推行他们强硬、
puritanical version of Islam within the kingdom.
清教式的伊斯兰教旨。
This Faustian bargain means that Saudi princes, like MBS and others,
这种浮士德式的交易意味着沙特王子，包括MBS等人在内，
can live these indulgent lifestyles and make deals with the West,
能够享受这种放纵的生活，能够和西方人做交易，
but still retain religious legitimacy in the eyes of the public.
同时在公众眼里享有合法的宗教地位。
It’s a balance that has kept the Kingdom stable in this very volatile region.
就是这种平衡让这个王国能够在动荡的中东地区一直保持社会稳定。
But now, MBS has violated his family’s part of the bargain,
然而现在，MBS违背了自己家族在这场交易中要遵守的原则，
arresting hard line clerics who might speak out against his progressive reforms.
逮捕了可能反对他进步改革的强硬派牧师。
This could shake one of the foundational pillars of Saudi society.
沙特社会的根基可能就会因此动摇。
The third way MBS is shaking up the kingdom is his plans for the economy.
MBS动摇王国根基的第三个做法是他的经济方针。
The kingdom’s revenue comes almost entirely from oil.
王国的收入几乎全部来自石油。
Demand for oil has remained solid for decades and Saudi Arabia reaped the rewards of that.
数十年来，石油需求一直居高不下，所以沙特得以从中分一杯羹。
But in 2014, the price of oil started to drop.
然而，2014年，石油价格开始下跌。
And it became clear that betting the entire kingdom’s economy on this one resource was a dangerous strategy for the future.
将整个王国的经济都压在这一种资源上对沙特的未来无疑是相当危险的。
So MBS wants to end what he calls this “Oil Addiction” in order to prepare for a world after oil.
所以，MBS想要戒除他所谓的这种“石油瘾”，为“石油后时代”铺路。
He’s laid out a vision of privatizing a lot of sectors within the Saudi economy and breaking up this giant, government-owned oil business.
他绘制了一个多种经济成分私有化同时分化国营石油业务的蓝图。
But this reform could also create more instability.
然而，这一改革同样可能引起社会动乱。
Thanks to the endless oil money, Saudi citizens are entitled to a lifelong set of benefits like free healthcare and subsidized housing.
正是由于有源源不断的石油收入，沙特公民才能享受免费医疗和住房补贴等终身制福利。
But as MBS tries to privatize the economy and move away from oil,
然而，随着MBS实行经济私有化，发展石油之外的其他经济成分，
this subsidized lifestyle that so many Saudis enjoy could be threatened
无数沙特人享有的这种补贴就可能受到影响，
and the public support that has kept this monarchy so solid for so many years could begin to dwindle.
一直保持沙特的君王体制无坚不摧的民众支持就可能开始摇摆。
The kingdom of Saudi Arabia is on the brink of one of the biggest transformations in its history.
沙特王国正面临其史上最大的社会变革。
As this young leader consolidates power to upend the status quo,
正当这位年轻的沙特领导巩固权力，颠覆沙特现状时，
he may also upend the pillars that have kept the kingdom one of the more stable countries in the Middle East.
他颠覆的也是让他的国家在中东一直保持稳定的根基。
