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I'm Mr. Clifford... and this is Adriene Hill, welcome to Crash Course economics.
我是克利福德，这是埃德因·希尔，欢迎收看经济速成班。
Let's start by talking about something that most people take for granted.
首先，我们来谈谈大多数人认为理所当然的事情。
Is it grocery stores, is it the census, is it GPS, is it goldfish, is it frogs?
是杂货店、人口普查、GPS、金鱼，还是青蛙?
Oh, it's probably these strawberries, right?
哦，可能是这些草莓，对吧？
No, I was gonna say markets.
不，我要说的是市场。
But, strawberries are great.
但草莓很好吃。
Yeah, but where do you think strawberries came from?
是的，但你认为草莓从哪里来呢?
The ground, the farmer, the market, the grocery store, the miracle of life?
土地、农民、市场、杂货店还是生命的奇迹？
Now look around you. Where did all that stuff come from? And who made it? And why?
现在环顾四周，所有这些东西是从哪儿来的？谁制造得它们？为什么制造？
Well, the answer is simple, but it's underrated.
答案很简单，却被低估了。
It's markets, and for most of us farms and factories and stores, but mainly it's just markets.
它们来自市场，我们大多数人会说农场、工厂和商店，但主要是市场。
Can I have a strawberry now?
我现在可以吃草莓吗？
So a market is any place where buyers and sellers meet to exchange goods and services.
因此，市场是买卖双方交换商品和服务的地方。
The key to markets is the concept of voluntary exchange.
市场的关键是自愿交换的概念。
That is, that buyers and sellers willingly decide to make a transaction.
也就是说，买卖双方自愿决定交易。
Let's say you go to a farmer's market and you buy a box of strawberries for 3 dollars.
假设你去一个农贸市场买一盒草莓，价格是3美元。
You value the box of strawberries more than the 3 dollars you gave up to get it.
你估价一盒草莓为3美元，超过了就放弃。
The seller valued the 3 dollars more than the box of strawberries.
卖方估计3美元超出了一盒草莓的价值。
The transaction's a win-win because you got your strawberries and the farmer got his money.
交易双赢，因为你得到了草莓，农民得到了钱。
You both felt better off; that's voluntary exchange.
你们俩都感觉很好。这就是自愿交换。
This same process happens in the labor market.
同样的过程也发生在劳动力市场上。
Say that instead of the farmer's market, you bought your strawberries at your local supermarket.
假如你在当地超市买草莓，而不是去农贸市场。
The cashier voluntarily decided to work there.
出纳员自愿决定在那里工作。
He values the 10 dollars an hour he makes there more than he does sitting at home watching the Walking Dead.
他看重的是每小时10美元的收入，而不是坐在家里看《行尸走肉》。
At the same time, the owner of the store values the labor of the cashier more than the 10 dollars an hour she pays him.
与此同时，店主对收银员劳动的估价超过了她付给他的每小时10美元。
And so it goes, on and on, all the way up the chain of production,
就这样，生产链一直不停地运转，
from the driver that delivered the strawberries to the farmer that grew the strawberries
从送草莓的司机到种草莓的农民，
to the tractor that the farmer purchased.
再到农民购买的拖拉机。
The point is that markets are everywhere and most are based on voluntary exchange.
关键是市场到处都是，而且大多数都是基于自愿交换的。
The part of all this that most people take for granted is how efficient the system is.
大多数人认为理所当然的部分是系统的效率。
Competitive markets turn out to be pretty great
竞争市场相当不错，
about allocating or distributing our scarce resources towards their most efficient use.
能把稀少的资源分配到最有效的用途上。
So if farmers produce, like, too many strawberries, then the price will fall as sellers try to sell them off.
因此，如果农民生产的草莓太多，在卖方想把草莓卖掉时价格就会下跌。
Lower prices means less profit for the strawberry farmers,
对种草莓的农民来说，低价意味着利润减少，
and those farmers will have an incentive to produce something else like lettuce or Brussels sprouts.
这些农民将有动力生产其他东西，比如生菜或球芽甘蓝。
So if farmers don't produce enough strawberries, buyers will bid up the price
如果农民生产的草莓不够，买方将抬高价格，
and the farmers will have an incentive to produce more, which then drives down the price.
农民们将有动力生产更多草莓，但会导致价格下降。
That's like magic except it's not.
这就像魔法，但事实不是。
The information that markets generate to guide a distribution of resources is what economists call price signals.
经济学家们所称的价格信号是市场为引导资源分配所产生的信息。
Markets also incentivize the production of high-quality products.
市场也鼓励高质量产品的生产。
If the strawberries are brown and nasty then no one's gonna want to buy them,
如果草莓是棕色的，而且难吃，那么没人想买它，
and if the tractor's a piece of junk, the strawberry farmer's gonna tell other farmers to buy some other tractor.
如果拖拉机一文不值，种草莓的农民会告诉其他农民买其他的拖拉机。
Now, ideally the eventual result of voluntary exchange is that
理想情况下，自愿交换的最终结果是
sellers can't make themselves better off without making something that makes buyers better off.
卖方制造让买方富裕的产品，从而让自己变富。
Businesses, and in particular large corporations,
企业，特别是大公司，
are often villainized as greedy, heartless institutions that take advantage of consumers,
通常被认为是贪婪无情、利用消费者利益的机构，
but if markets are transparent and buyers are free to choose,
但如果市场透明，买方可以自由选择的话，
then businesses will have a hard time taking advantage of people.
那么，企业将很难利用人们。
Now obviously greed and deception happen in real life,
显然，现实生活中有贪婪和欺骗，
and there are situations where consumers don't have a choice,
有些情况，消费者别无选择，
but for the most part, if you really don't like the policies or practices of a particular company, then don't shop there.
但大多数情况下，如果你真的不喜欢某家公司的政策或做法，就不要在那里购物了。
After all, in the free market, every dollar that is spent signals to producers
毕竟，在自由市场里，每一美元都是向生产者发出的信号，
what should be produced and how it should be produced.
告诉他们应该生产什么，怎么生产。
We've established that prices and profit determine where resources should go,
我们已经确定了价格和利润决定资源去向，
but where do prices come from?
但价格是从哪儿来的？
Who determines the price of my box of strawberries?
谁决定了一盒草莓的价格?
To answer that, we're gonna draw, get ready for it, supply and demand.
要回答这个问题，准备好，我们要画出供给和需求图表。
Let's go to the runway.
我们开始吧。
If there's only one thing you should learn in economics, it's supply and demand.
如果你在经济学中只需学习一件事，那就是供给和需求。
Let's use the market for strawberries to help us understand this concept.
我们用草莓市场来帮助理解这个概念。
Up here on the Y axis, we have the price of strawberries,
上面的Y轴显示的是草莓价格，
down here on the X axis we have the quantity of boxes of strawberries.
下面的X轴显示的是草莓的数量。
Let's start by looking at buyers and how they respond to a change in price.
让我们先看看买方和他们对价格变化的反应。
If the price goes up for strawberries,
如果草莓价格上涨，
then some buyers will go buy blueberries or they'll go on that all bacon diet.
一些买方会去买蓝莓或者继续吃全是培根的食物。
The point is, they're gonna buy less strawberries.
关键点是，他们会更少买草莓。
And if the price goes down for strawberries, then people are gonna buy more.
如果草莓价格下降，人们就会买更多。
This is called the law of demand:
这叫做需求定律：
when the price goes up, people buy less, when the price goes down, people buy more.
当价格上涨时，人们买的更少；当价格下降时，人们购买更多。
On the graph it's show by a downward sloping demand curve.
图表显示的是向下倾斜的需求曲线。
Now let's think about sellers like the farmer in the farmer's market.
现在让我们来想想卖方，以农民市场上的农民为例。
If the price of strawberries go up, then that farmer will make more profit,
如果草莓价格上涨，那么农民利润增加，
so will have an incentive to produce more strawberries.
就会有动力生产更多草莓。
If the price goes down then he's not gonna want to produce strawberries.
如果价格下降，他们就不想生产草莓了。
That's called the law of supply, and on the graph it's shown by an upward sloping supply curve.
这就是供给定律，图表上显示的是向上倾斜的供给曲线。
Now let's put supply and demand together.
现在我们把供求关系放在一起。
If the price is really high at 10 dollars, then producers would like to produce a lot of strawberries,
如果价格高达10美元，生产商想生产大量的草莓，
but consumers won't want to buy them.
但消费者不愿购买。
This mismatch is called a surplus.
这种错配被称为盈余。
And if the price goes down for strawberries, let's say down to 1 dollars,
如果草莓价格下降，假设是1美元，
then buyers want to buy a whole lot, but producers won't have incentive and they'll produce very little.
买方想买很多，但是生产者没有动机，生产得很少。
At the end you have mismatch, but this one's called a shortage.
最终会出现不匹配，但这被称为短缺。
And there's only one price where the quantity that buyers want to buy is exactly equal to the quantity that sellers want to sell,
有一个价格恰好能让买方想买的数量等于卖方想卖的数量，
and it's right here where supply equals demand.
达到供求平衡。
The price is called the equilibrium price, and the quantity is called the equilibrium quantity.
这个价格被称为均衡价格，达到的数量叫做均衡产量。
Okay, sure your graph makes sense,
当然，你的图表有意义，
but the price of strawberries isn't always 3 dollars, sometimes it goes up to 6 dollars,
但草莓的价格不总是3美元，它有时会涨到6美元，
and at Whole Foods, local, artisanally grown strawberries,
而且在全食超市，当地手工种植的草莓，
the fancy fancy strawberries, can cost upwards of 12 dollars.
精选的漂亮草莓可以高达12美元。
But I guess Whole Foods is a whole other world where price has nothing to do with realistic economics.
但我认为全食超市是另一个世界，它的价格与现实经济毫无关系。
We'll stick to normal strawberries.
我们回到正常草莓的话题上。
In fact, the prices for all sort of stuff change all the time.
事实上，各种商品的价格一直在变化。
External forces can shift both the supply and demand curves,
外力可以改变供给和需求曲线，
changing the equilibrium price and quantity.
改变均衡价格和数量。
For example, let's assume that this graph shows the demand and supply of strawberries in the summer.
例如，我们假设这个图表显示的是夏季草莓的需求和供给。
What happens in the winter? Will the change in weather affect buyers' demand? Or producers supply?
那么冬天呢？天气变化会影响买方的需求吗？影响卖方的供应吗？
Spoiler alert: it's supply. Colder temperatures make it harder to grow strawberries.
剧透警告：这是供给曲线。温度变冷使草莓更难种植。
The result is the entire supply curve is gonna shift to the left.
结果是整个供给曲线会向左平移。
This is because at all possible prices, there'd be fewer strawberries produced. That's it.
这是因为在所有可能的价格中，生产的草莓少了。就这样。
This graph is just a tool that economists and everyone else used to show the results of a change in a market.
这个图表只是经济学家和其他人用来展示市场变化结果的工具。
I know it seems complicated at first, but there are really only four things that can happen in a market.
我知道它一开始看起来很复杂，但市场只发生四件事。
Supply can decrease, supply can increase, demand can decrease, or demand can increase.
供给减少、供给增加、需求减少、需求增加。
Some people might wanna talk about a price being fair or right.
有些人可能会谈论价格是否公平合理。
Well, that all depends on your point of view.
这完全取决于你的观点。
The buyer always considers a low price to be a very fair price,
买方总认为低价是公道的价格，
while the seller considers it unfair and vice versa.
而卖方认为这不公平，反之亦然。
In general, economists don't really like to push opinions about prices.
总的来说，经济学家并不真的喜欢对价格提出意见。
Voluntary exchange suggests that the price is there for a reason.
自愿交换表明价格存在是有原因的。
For example, assume the demand for strawberries inexplicably falls,
例如，假设草莓需求令人费解地下降，
so the demand curve shifts to the left and the equilibrium price and quantity fall.
那么需求曲线就会向左平移，均衡价格和均衡数量会下降。
Farmers might go to the government for assistance,
农民可能会寻求政府帮助，
but most economists would argue there's no reason to bail them out.
但多数经济学家会辩称，没有理由纾困他们。
The market's spoken. Strawberries are so over.
市场说得是草莓过时了。
Furthermore, if the government helps the farmers by giving them a subsidy,
此外，如果政府通过给予农民补贴来帮助他们。
it would be putting resources towards something that society doesn't value.
它将把资源投向社会不重视的东西。
That would be inefficient.
这将是低效的。
Luckily, every reasonable person on Earth values strawberries, so they continue to get produced.
幸运地是，地球上每个理性的人都重视草莓，所以它们能继续生产。
Now, the downside is, the supply and demand model only applies to analyzing strawberries.
现在的缺点是，供求模型只适用于分析草莓。
Nah, I'm just joking; it applies to all sorts of stuff.
不，我开玩笑的，它适用于所有产品。
In fact, let's look at a market for a commodity known for its volatility,
事实上，我们来看一个以波动著称的商品市场,
both because of its fluctuating prices and because sometimes, it explodes: gasoline.
不仅是因为它的价格波动，还因为它有时会爆炸：汽油。
Now when you see gas prices are moving all over the board, that's just demand and supply.
当你看到天然气正全面上涨时，这就是需求和供给曲线。
For example, in 2014, the retail gas price in the United States fell dramatically.
例如，2014年，美国的零售天然气价格大幅下跌。
Why? Well, it was demand and supply.
为什么？原因在于需求和供给。
The economies of both Europe and China weakened,
欧洲和中国经济变弱，
which decreased the demand for gasoline, shifting the demand curve to the left.
降低了对汽油的需求，导致需求曲线向左平移。
At the same time, new fracking technology and restored production of oil in Iraq and Libya
与此同时，新的水力压裂技术与伊拉克、利比亚恢复石油产量
caused the supply of gasoline to increase, or shift to the right.
导致汽油供应增加，供给曲线向右移动。
The combination drove gas prices down by more than 40% per gallon. And that's it.
这一组合使汽油价格下降了40%以上。就这样。
Now you can tell all your friends you understand supply and demand.
现在你可以告诉你所有的朋友你了解供求关系了。
It's a big day for you. It's a big day.
今天对你来说是重要的一天，很重要。
So markets and supply and demand are awesome.
因此，市场、供应和需求都了不起。
But sometimes, they're not awesome.
但有时，它们也不太好。
For example, we don't wanna use the market approach when it comes to firefighters.
例如，涉及到消防员时，我们不想使用市场方法。
911, what's your emergency? My house is on fire, how much do you charge to put it out?
这是911，你有什么紧急情况？我的房子着火了，你要多少钱才能把它扑灭？
It'll be 10,000 dollars, what's your credit card number? They're all melted!
需要1万美元，您的信用卡号码是多少？它们都化了！
Okay, that one's obvious, but what about the market for human organs?
好吧，这一点很明显，但是人体器官市场呢？
After all, there's a huge shortage, and thousands of people die each year waiting for transplants.
毕竟，这是个巨缺，每年有成千上万的人死于等待移植。
Should there be a competitive market for human kidneys?
人类肾脏应该有竞争市场吗？
A free marketeer would say sure, why not?
自由市场人士会说，当然，为什么不这样呢？
If a donor wants 15,000 dollar smore than he wants his other kidney, why stop him?
如果一个捐献者想要1.5万美元，而不想要他的其他肾脏，为什么阻止他呢？
Well. Ethics. I mean, there's several problems that arise with an unregulated market for human kidneys.
伦理。我的意思是，一个不受监管的人类肾脏市场存在几个问题。
First is the moral question, is it fair for a poor person who can't afford a kidney to die while a rich person lives?
首先是道德问题，买不起的穷人死了而富人活着，这公平吗？
Well, probably...no, not at all. Another problem results in the law of supply.
可能不公平，一点儿也不公平。另一个问题是供给定律。
When there's an increase in the price of kidneys, there's an incentive for people to steal and sell kidneys.
当肾脏价格上涨时，人们就有了偷窃和出售肾脏的动机。
In fact, the World Health Organization has stated,
事实上，世界卫生组织已经声明，
"Payment for organs is likely to take unfair advantage of the poorest and most vulnerable groups,
“器官支付可能会剥夺最贫穷和最弱势群体的不公平优势，
undermines altruistic donations, and leads to profiteering and human trafficking."
破坏利他主义的捐赠，导致牟取暴利和贩卖人口。”
I mean, all bad things. Now, that being said,
都是坏事。话虽这么说，
why do 70% of American economic association members support some kind of payment for organ donors?
为什么70%的美国经济协会成员支持支付器官捐献者呢？
Well, it's because you can solve some of these problems with a market approach,
这是因为你可以用市场方法来解决这些问题，
but the market must be regulated.
但市场必须受到监管。
Often family and friends are willing to donate a kidney, but they're not a match for the patient.
通常，家人和朋友都愿意捐肾，但它们不与病人匹配。
Economists generally support creating kidney exchanges,
经济学家通常支持建立肾脏交换，
where pairs of willing donors are matched with strangers that agree to donate to each others' loved ones.
一对愿意捐赠的人与那些同意为彼此所爱之人捐赠肾脏的陌生人匹配。
In both cases, the supply of donated kidneys would increase,
在这两种情况下，捐献肾脏的供应都会增加，
which would alleviate some of the shortage.
这能缓解一些短缺。
Like we've said before, free markets are awesome, but they can't solve all our problems.
正如我们之前所说，自由市场很了不起，但它不能解决所有问题。
Sometimes, they need to be regulated, and sometimes, they should be avoided.
有时，它们需要被监管；有时，它们应该被避免。
So there you have what, for most people, is the start and for many, the end of economics. Supply and demand.
所以，大多数人认为供求关系是经济学的开始，也有许多人认为它是结束。
Economists and politicians often like to refer to the interaction of supply and demand as laws,
经济学家和政治家通常喜欢把供求关系看做定律，
and we've done that too, but to be clear, it's not an absolute law, like the law of gravity.
我们也这样做，但要说清楚，它像万有引力定律一样，不是绝对的。
As we've tried to point out here on Crash Course, economics is about human choices and their consequences.
正如我们在速成课上指出的，经济学讲的是人类选择及其后果。
Even though supply and demand behave in a predictable way that we've seen in the models,
尽管供求行为是可以预测的，我们在模型中已经看到了，
we can't lose sight of the fact that both of them are reliant on humans acting as buyers and sellers.
但我们不能忽视这样一个事实，即它们都依赖于人类作为卖方和买方。
Our actions influence supply and demand in a way that they can't influence gravity,
我们的行为以一种无法影响重力的方式影响着供应和需求。
no matter how much we might want to. Whoa.
不管我们想要多少。哇哦！
That's After Effects. And that's something to keep in mind when you hear us or anybody talking about economic laws.
这是影视特效，当你听到我们或任何人谈论经济定律时，要记住它。
Thanks for watching. We'll see you next time.
感谢您的收看！我们下期见。
Thanks for watching Crash Course Economics, it was made with the help of all these nice people.
感谢您收看经济速成班，它是由一群好心人自创的。
You demanded it, and they supplied it.
你需要它，他们就供应它。
Now, if you want them to keep supplying it, please head over to Patreon.
如果你想让他们继续供应，请到Patreon去。
It's a voluntary subscription platform
它是自愿订阅平台，
that allows you to pay whatever you want monthly to help make Crash Course free for everyone forever.
这样你就可以按月支付任何你想要的东西，并且帮助速成课程继续存在。
Thanks for watching. DFTBA.
感谢您的收看。别忘了做个了不起的人。
