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经济速成班 第5课:生产力与经济增长

来源:可可英语 编辑:Alisa   可可英语APP下载 |  可可官方微信:ikekenet

Hi, I'm Adriene Hill. And I'm Jacob Clifford. And welcome to Crash Course Economics.

大家好,我是埃德因·希尔。我是雅各布·克利福德。欢迎收看经济速成班。
So far we talked about GDP and how the overall economy,
到目前为止,我们讨论了GDP和整体经济,
but we haven't really talked about why some countries have a high GDP and others have low GDP.
但是还没有讨论为什么有些国家GDP很高,而其他国家的GDP却很低。
So, why are some countries rich, and others poor?
那么,为什么有些国家富有,而有些国家贫穷呢?
Let's investigate. Look, a clue! Productivity! Hmm...
我们调查一下。看,这是线索!生产力!嗯...
So, if we're gonna figure out why some countries are rich and some are poor,
所以,如果我们要弄清楚为什么有些国家富有而有些国家贫穷,
we have to first define what it means to be rich.
必须首先定义什么是富有。
Economists measure economic output by looking at Gross Domestic Product or GDP.
经济学家通过观察国内生产总值(GDP)来衡量经济产出。
As you remember from the last video,
你们还记得上个视频吧,
GDP is the market value of all goods and services newly produced in a country in one year.
GDP是指一国一年内新生产的所有商品和服务的市场价值。
India's GDP is over six times larger than the GDP of Singapore,
印度的GDP是新加坡的6倍多,
but that doesn't mean the average Indian is richer than the average Singaporean.
但这并不意味着普通印度人比一般新加坡人富裕。
That's because India has 240 times more people than Singapore.
这是因为印度的人口是新加坡的240倍。
So, economists look at something called GDP per capita, to determine how wealthy a country is.
因此经济学家研究人均GDP,来判定一个国家的富裕程度。
GDP per capita is the GDP of the country divided by its population.
人均GDP是GDP除以人口数得出的。
It represents output per person, and a country with a high GDP per capita is considered rich.
它代表着人均产出,而人均GDP高的国家被认为是富有的。
Of course, some of you may say being rich has nothing to do with GDP or money.
当然,有些人可能会说,富有与GDP或金钱无关。
It has to do with whether or not you're happy.
它与你是否快乐有关。
Fine, money may not buy happiness, but it can prevent a lot of misery.
好吧,金钱也许买不到幸福,但它可以避免很多痛苦。
The United Nations' Human Development Index, or HDI,
联合国人类发展指数,简称HDI,
measures life expectancy, literacy, education, quality of life, and it ranks countries according to their findings.
衡量人类的预期寿命、识字能力、教育程度、生活质量,并根据调查结果对各国进行排名。
The data shows the country that have a high GDP per capita
数据显示,人均GDP较高的国家
have far less infant mortality, poverty and preventable diseases.
婴儿死亡率、贫穷和患可预防疾病的程度要低得多。
So, economists often used GDP per capita to measure a country's standard of living.
因此,经济学家经常用人均GDP来衡量一个国家的生活水平。
Countries with the lowest standard of living are the ones that are conventionally considered poor.
生活水平最低的国家通常被认为是穷国。
So, why are some countries poor?
那么,有些国家为什么贫穷呢?
If you ask someone on the street, they might say the difference is due to lack of natural resources or inept governments,
如果你问街上的人,他们可能会说,区别在于缺乏自然资源或政府无能,
that is if the person doesn't subscribe to some antiquated racial or social Darwinist stereotypes,
也就是说人们不认同某些过时的种族或社会达尔文主义的陈腔滥调,
but we should talk about those ideas.
但我们应该说说这些观念。
Well, let's skip the racial and social Darwinists stereotypes, but resources and leadership are interesting.
我们跳过种族和社会达尔文主义者的陈腔滥调,说说有趣的资源和领导力吧。
First, resources. Look at Singapore:
首先,资源。看看新加坡:
third on GDP per capita and ninth on the Human Development Index.
它的人均GDP排名第三,人类发展指数排名第九。
Or Switzerland, ninth in GDP per capita and third on the HDI.
或者瑞士,人均GDP排名第九,人类发展指数排名第三。
Singapore is a teeny tiny island, and Switzerland's main natural resources is cows.
新加坡是个极小的小岛,而瑞士的主要自然资源是奶牛。
And cows are great! I love cows, love love, but they aren't really natural resources.
奶牛是伟大的!我爱奶牛,非常非常爱,但它们不是真正的自然资源。
Zimbabwe, on the other hand, has tons of natural resources,
另一方面,津巴布韦拥有大量的自然资源,
like fertile soil, coal and rare minerals, but their economy?
比如肥沃的土壤,煤炭和稀有矿产,但它的经济怎么样呢?
It's a wreck. It's a hundred and sixty first (161st) in GPD per capita and a hundred and fifty sixth (156th) on the HDI.
经济惨淡。它的人均GDP排在161位,人类发展指数排在156位。
Their incompetent and corrupt government keeps them poor.
无能和腐败的政府让他们贫穷。
For comparison sake, the GDP per capita in the US is 18 times higher than in Bangladesh,
比较而言,美国的人均GDP是孟加拉国的18倍,
and we're not just trouncing Bangladesh.
我们不是在打击孟加拉国。
GDP per capita wise, we're also crushing the GDP numbers of our great-grandparents. Take that, Aloysius!
按人均GDP计算,我们也在摧毁我们曾祖父母的GDP数据。阿洛伊修斯,接招!
The GDP per capita in the US today is about 8 times higher than a hundred years ago.
美国如今的人均GDP大约是100年前的8倍。
That's pretty impressive. Maybe the Thought Bubble can produce an explanation.
这很引人瞩目,或许“Thought Bubble”能为我们解释。
Let's say John runs a bakery. Each worker to produce a dozen donuts per hour, and each donut sells for 1 dollar.
假设约翰经营一家面包店。每个工人每小时生产一打甜甜圈,每个甜甜圈卖1美元。
If John wants to stay in business, he can't pay his workers more than 12 dollars an hour.
如果约翰想继续做生意,他付给工人的工资每小时不能超过12美元。
Obviously, he needs to pay for the ingredients and the oven,
显然,他还需要为原料和烤箱买账,
but even if you wanted to be generous, he couldn't pay them 20 dollars an hour.
即使想慷慨,也不能每小时付给工人20美元。
They just don't produce enough for us to cover the cost.
他们生产的产品不足以支付成本。
But if John can find a way for each worker to produce four dozen donuts per hour,
但是,如果约翰能找到一种方法,让每个工人每小时生产24个甜甜圈,
he can pay them 20 dollars per hour.
那么他就可以每小时付给他们20美元了。
Simply put, the more that each worker can produce, the more money each can earn.
简单地说,每个工人生产的产品越多,他们挣得就越多。
Economists argue that the main reason some countries are rich is because of their productivity.
经济学家认为,一些国家富有是因为生产力。
Their ability to produce more output, per worker, per hour.
每个工人有能力每小时产出更多。
US workers, altogether, earn 18 times more per hour than Bangladeshi workers,
整体而言,美国工人每小时的工资比孟加拉工人多18倍,
because they're able to produce 18 times more output per hour.
因为他们每小时的产出多了18倍。
US workers today earn 8 times more per hour than US workers a hundred years ago,
如今,美国工人每小时的工资比一百年前多8倍,
because they produce 8 times more output per hour.
因为他们每小时的产出多了8倍。
But not only is US producing more stuff,
我们不仅生产了更多产品,
it's also producing higher value products, like Avengers movies and jet engines.
产品的价值也提高了,比如复仇者系列电影和喷射发动机。
So going back to our bakery example,
所以回到我们的面包店例子上,
it's like a worker from a hundred years ago be able to produce six plain donuts per hour,
比如一百年前,一个工人每小时能生产6个普通的面包圈,
while workers today is able to produce 60 salted caramel designer cupcakes per hour.
而现在的工人每小时可以生产60个咸焦糖设计纸杯蛋糕。
Thanks, Thought Bubble.
感谢“Thought Bubble”。

bread.png

Before we go further, we need to point out the limitations of this bakery example.

我们在进一步讨论之前,需要指出这个面包店例子的局限性。
It's true, productivity is key.
没错,生产力是关键。
A country that is more productive can create more stuff and can generate higher incomes,
一个生产力更高的国家可以创造更多的产品,并能产生更高的收入,
but in real life, it doesn't always look like that.
但在现实生活中,情况并非总是如此。
For example, in the US, the GDP per capita has been steadily increasing for decades,
例如,美国几十年来人均GDP一直在稳步增长,
but median family incomes haven't changed much at all.
但中等家庭的收入并没有多少变化。
This gets to issues of income inequality, and we're gonna devote an entire episode to it.
这涉及到收入不平等的问题,我们将用完整的一期来讲它。
Limitations aside, low productivity remains a fundamental reason why some countries are poor.
除了资源有限,生产力低仍然是一些国家贫穷的根本原因。
Higher productivity not only helps explain why we have more money to buy stuff,
更高生产力不仅有助于解释我们为什么有更多的钱买东西,
but also why we have more stuff to buy.
也能解释我们为什么有更多的东西要买。
And speaking of stuff to buy,
为什么要买东西,
because it is socially unacceptable somehow for me to appear in the same clothes over and over,
因为一直穿同样的衣服对我来说在社交上是无法接受的。
I need 40 blouses to make this series. That is a lot of blouses.
制作这个系列课程我需要40件衬衫,也就是很多女衬衫。
That strains resources, pollutes the planet, and at high levels like 40 is completely unsustainable.
这会让资源紧张,地球污染,而40件这样的高标准衬衫是完全无法维持的。
Don't worry though, some of these are from thrift stores.
不过别担心,有些衬衫是旧货店的。
So what about people in poor countries? What do they need?
那么贫穷国家的人呢?他们需要什么?
Well, they need food, clothing and housing, they need clean water and plumbing and sewers,
他们需要食物、衣服和住房,需要干净的水、管道和下水道,
they need hospitals and medicine, but all those things have to be produced,
需要医院和药品,但所有这些东西都必须得生产出来,
so a country that produces more of these things with fewer resources is gonna be wealthier and healthier,
因此,用较少资源生产更多产品的国家会变得更富有和健康,
and perhaps even happier than a country that can't.
甚至比一个做不到的国家更幸福。
But making a million cell phones isn't very impressive if your country has a hundred million people,
但是如果你的国家有1亿人口的话,制造一百万部手机的成绩并不骄人,
so we need to look at how much stuff we produce per person. That's GDP Per Capita.
所以我们需要看每个人生产了多少产品,也就是人均国内生产总值。
So if everything all boils down to productivity,
因此,如果一切都归结为生产力的话,
what makes some countries more productive than others?
是什么让一些国家比其他国家更具生产力呢?
Well, let's go back and look at the main ingredients that we need to produce things,
我们回过头来看看生产产品所需的主要原料,
what economists call the factors of production.
也就是经济学家所谓的生产要素!
First, you need land, which includes all natural resources,
首先,你需要土地,包括所有自然资源,
and then you need workers which is labor,
然后你需要工人也就是劳动力,
and then you need capital which includes machines and factories and infrastructure,
再然后你需要资本,包括机器、工厂和基础设施,
things you need to produce other things.
以及你需要生产其他产品的材料。
One special type of capital is the workers' education, knowledge and skills required to produce things.
有一种特殊的资本是工人的教育、知识和生产所需的技能。
Economists call this human capital.
经济学家称之为人力资本。
So school's not just about torturing you, except for PE, it's about helping your human capital.
所以学校不仅仅是在折磨你,除了体育,它也在帮你积累人力资本。
The quantity and quality of these resources is the first step to being more productive,
这些资源的数量和质量是提高生产力的第一步,
but perhaps even more important is how you use them.
但也许更重要的是你如何使用它们。
Increasing the amount of capital has a cost, but finding new ways to organize production is virtually free.
增加资本数量是有代价的,但是找到组织生产的新方法几乎免费。
Economists call the organizational effectiveness "technology."
经济学家把这种组织效能称为“技术”,
Think of it as the good ideas about how to combine labor and capital that you already have.
把它看作是你现有劳动力和资本结合方式的好主意。
US workers produce so much more than Bangladeshi workers
美国工人比孟加拉国工人生产得多很多,
because the US has more factories, robots, and computers.
因为美国有更多的工厂、机器人和电脑。
But more capital only gets you so far;
但更多资本做到的也仅此而已;
it increases your production capacity but it also eats up some of that production capacity.
它增加生产力的同时也消耗了它们。
You have to develop more factories and workers and machines to make more capital,
你必须建立更多的工厂、雇佣更多工人和机器来制造更多的资本,
and then replace them when they wear out.
然后在它们磨损时更换它们。
Technology on the other hand takes the same amount of resources
另一方面,技术需要同样数量的资源,
and organizes them in a way to produce more output.
并组织它们产出更多。
Here's an example. Twenty-five years ago, you could find computers in just about every workplace in the US,
比如,25年前,美国几乎所有的工作场所都能找到电脑,
but productivity growth in the US was flat.
但生产力的增长不变。
Then, starting in about 1995, US productivity boomed led by computer technology. SO what changed?
然后,从1995年开始,以计算机技术为首的美国生产力蓬勃发展。那么是什么改变了?
In the late 80's and early 90's, most workplace computers were individual units,
在80年代末90年代初,大多数工作场所的电脑都是独立的,
plugged into nothing but an electric outlet.
除了电源插座外什么也不连。
They were useful for writing and printing documents,
它们对书写和印刷文件很有用,
or acting as overgrown calculators, and playing Oregon Trail, but that was about it.
或者充当过度增加的计算器或俄勒冈之路,但也就这样了。
When the World Wide Web came along everything changed.
当万维网出现时,一切都变了。
It turns out that computers are far more useful when they can talk to each other.
事实证明,当电脑可以互相交流时,它们会更有用。
The computer at the store could talk to the computer at the warehouse
商店里的电脑可以和仓库里的电脑联系,
which could talk to the computer at the factory.
后者可以和工厂的电脑结合。
That means I can get a new blouse from the other side of the world pretty much immediately.
这意味着我可以马上从世界的另一端买到一件新衬衫。
Connectivity equals productivity.
连通性等于生产力。
Productivity in the US boomed for the next 10 years, and wages jumped as a result.
美国的生产力在接下来的10年里急速提高,因此工资上涨。
200 years ago, productivity in the US wasn't that great, but it grew a little bit every year.
200年前,美国的生产力并不是很好,但每年都在增长。
Compounding that over decades and centuries gives us the huge gap
几十年和几个世纪下来的积累
between the US standard of living and that of many developing countries.
让美国和许多发展中国家的生活水平产生了巨大差异。
The good news is that in recent decades, many developing countries,
好消息是,近几十年来,许多发展中国家,
like China, South Korea, Mexico and Ghana have dramatically improved their capital in technology
比如中国、韩国、墨西哥和加拿大大幅提高了技术资本,
and have seen their living standards rise.
他们的生活水平也提高了。
So if you want a single, one-word answer as to why some countries are more successful than others,
因此,如果你想要一个单字答案,来解释为什么有些国家比他国更成功,
here it is: Productivity. So if you look at the big picture,
那就是生产力。所以如果你从整体来看,
And by "big picture," we mean both globally and historically,
“整体”的意思是从全球范围和历史角度来看,
increasing productivity has resulted in increased standards of living for much of humanity over the last hundred years,
在过去的几百年里,生产力的提高导致人类生活水平的提高。
and it's hard to argue that this is a bad thing.
很难说这是件坏事。
Thanks for watching, we'll see you next week.
感谢您的收看,我们下期见。
Thanks for watching Crash Course Economics.
感谢您收看经济速成班。
It was made with the help of all of these nice people.
它是由一群好心人自创的。
You can improve their standard of living by supporting Crash Course at Patreon.
你可以通过支持速成课来改善他们的生活水平。
It's a voluntary subscription platform
它是自愿订阅平台,
that allows you to pay whatever you want monthly to help make Crash Course free for everyone forever.
这样你就可以按月支付任何你想要的东西,并且帮助速成课程继续存在,
Thanks for watching, DFTBA.
感谢您的收看。别忘了做个了不起的人。

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