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Jacob, you're a teacher, so on behalf of students everywhere, Pop Quiz on you!
雅各布，你是老师，所以，我代表各地学生向你进行突击测验！
What was the average price of a new car in 1950?
1950年一辆新车的平均价格是多少？
What was the tuition at Harvard in 1900?
1900年哈佛的学费是多少？
What was is the highest grossing movie of all time?
有史以来最卖座的电影是什么？
Sharknado? Yeah. Really? No.
《鲨从天降》？是的。真的吗？不是！
When it comes to inflation, most people think prices go up over time.
说到通货膨胀，大多数人认为价格会随时间上涨。
Ok, I get it. Who cares? Well, you do. A lot.
好的，我明白了。但谁在乎呢？嗯，你在乎，而且很在乎。
Let's say you got a two percent raise at your job.
假设你在工作中得到了2%的加薪。
But while you're raking in your extra two percent, prices rise by five percent.
但你在迅速取得额外的2%时，价格上涨了5%。
Guess what. That means you didn't get a real raise.
你猜怎么着，这意味着你没有得到真正的加薪。
Sorry. After adjusting for inflation, you're actually losing three percent of your purchasing power.
很遗憾。经过通货膨胀调整后，你实际损失了3%的购买力。
Well, let's take a look at Stan. Hello, Stan.
我们看看斯坦。嗨，斯坦！
Purchasing power tells him how much physical stuff,
购买力告诉他物价是多少，
like pizza, haircuts, and Neutral Milk Hotel tickets he can actually consume.
比如他实际可以消费多少披萨、理发和“中性牛奶饭店乐团”门票，
If prices go down, he can consume more stuff. His purchasing power has increased.
如果价格下降，他可以消费更多物品，购买力增加了。
Or if prices go up, he has to consume less. His purchasing power has decreased.
如果价格上涨，他必须减少消费，购买力下降了。
A rise in prices is effectively the exact same thing as a cut in wages, and vice versa.
价格上涨实际和工资削减效果等同，反之亦然。
The first thing we need to know is how economists measure inflation, or the overall price levels in a countries.
我们首先需要知道的是，经济学家如何衡量通胀或一个国家的整体价格水平。
Using that measure they can do things like adjust prices from the past into today's dollars,
他们利用这种方法可以做很多事情，比如把价格从过去调整到现在的美元水平，
and give us a reading on how fast prices are rising.
让我们知道物价上涨的速度。
Second, we're going to look at inflation and talk about what leads one country to have inflation while another has falling prices.
其次，我们将关注通胀，并探讨什么导致了一个国家通胀而另一个国家物价却在下降。
Finally, we're going to look at bubbles, which happen when the price of just one good soars,
最后，我们来看看经济泡沫，也就是商品价格急剧上涨，
as a result of collective delusions and irrational exuberance.
它是集体错觉和非理性繁荣的结果。
We all know that prices tend to go up over time.
我们都知道价格会随时间上涨。
The average movie ticket in the U.S. today is 8.00 dollars.
如今美国的平均电影票价格是8美元。
In 1939, when Gone With The Wind was released, it was 23 cents.
1939年，《飘》上映时只有23美分。
So to compare box office sales between different years, we have to adjust for inflation.
因此，为了比较不同年份的票房收入，我们必须对调整通货膨胀。
But how do we do that? I mean, the prices for some things are rising quickly, like college tuition and health care.
但是我们怎么做呢？我的意思是，有些东西的价格正在快速上涨，比如大学学费和医疗保健。
And for other things it's rising slowly, like for cars and food.
而其他东西上涨缓慢，比如汽车和食品。
But, prices for stuff like electronics, are even dropping.
电子产品等的价格甚至在下降。
Stan, how much are DVD players again?
斯坦，DVD播放机卖多少钱了？
So when they're adjusting for inflation,
当经济学家们调整通胀时，
economists first pick out a list of goods that represents what an average consumer buys in a year.
他们会先选出一份商品清单，该清单代表了普通消费者一年内购买的商品。
Say, twelve months of rent, three hundred gallons of gasoline, fifty loaves of bread, twenty burritos, and seven movie tickets.
比如，十二个月的租金、三百加仑汽油、五十条面包、二十个墨西哥卷和七张电影票。
That kind of thing. It's called a consumer basket.
这种东西叫做消费者篮子。
They add up the price of this year's basket, and do the same thing next year, and the year after that.
他们把今年篮子里的价格加起来，明年也是一样，之后每年都这样。
So eventually you have a long list of basket costs for a bunch of different years.
最终你会得到一份长长的篮子清单，写着一大堆不同年份的成本。
Then, you pick a base year. It can be any year you want.
然后，选出基准年，它可能是你想要的任何一年。
You divide the basket cost of each year, by the basket cost in the base year and multiply it times 100.
你把各年的篮子成本除以基准年的篮子成本，再乘以100。
That gives you something called the consumer price index.
得到的就是消费者价格指数。
The CPI shows how prices have changed between different years,
CPI显示了不同年份的价格变化情况，
and it's by far the most commonly used measure of inflation.
是目前为止最常用的通货膨胀指标。
To determine the highest grossing movie of all time, we have to adjust for inflation.
要确定有史以来最卖座的电影，我们必须调整通货膨胀。
Gone with the Wind, Avatar, and Star Wars were all made in different years, with different ticket prices.
《飘》、《阿凡达》和《星球大战》都是不同年份制作的，票价也不同。
The CPI allows us to adjust for inflation by leveling the playing field and putting all the earnings in the same base year prices.
CPI允许我们调整通货膨胀，方法是调整竞争环境并将所有收益都放到相同的基准年价格中。
You'll hear economists using the words "nominal" and "real" a lot.
你经常会听到经济学家们用“名义”和“真正”这两个词。
"Real" means that a price from the past has been adjusted for inflation.
“真正”指的是过去价格经通货膨胀调整后得到的价格。
"Nominal" means a price from the past that hasn't been adjusted for inflation.
“名义”指的是没有经过通货膨胀调整的过去价格。
So the highest "nominal" box office receipts list is quite different.
因此，最高的“名义”票房收入清单是完全不同的。
Avatar, Titanic, Avengers, Jurassic World.
《阿凡达》，《泰坦尼克》，《复仇者》，《侏罗纪世界》的票房都不同。
Of course, most of these movies are more recent, since ticket prices are higher today.
当然，这些电影大多是近期的，因为如今的票价更高。
But the point is, when economists make historical comparisons, they always use "real" values
但关键是，经济学家进行历史比较时，总用“真正”价值。
It's worth noting that the CPI isn't perfect.
值得注意的是，CPI并不完美。
Since we have to keep the market basket constant over time,
因为随着时间的推移，我们必须保持市场篮子不变，
a traditional CPI won't adjust for either new products on increases in product quality.
传统的消费者价格指数不会对新产品的产品质量进行调整。
So a market basket from the 1950s might include a black and white TV that gets like,
所以20世纪50年代的一个市场篮子可能包括一台黑白电视机，
a few channels and weighs like, a "billion" pounds.
它只有几个频道，却好像重达“10亿磅”。
It's nothing like your 40-inch flat screen.
它和你40英寸的平板电脑没什么区别。
Government economists use adjustment factors to simultaneously account for technological progress
政府经济学家使用调整因素来同时兼顾技术进步，
and keep two different years comparable. But, it's very complicated.
让两个不同年份有可比性。但是它非常复杂。
Economists can also use the Consumer Price Index to calculate the rate of inflation,
经济学家还可以使用消费者价格指数来计算通货膨胀率，
how quickly the general price level is rising from year to year.
以及一般价格水平逐年上升的速度有多快。
Here's the rate of inflation in the U.S. over time, as you can see,
这是美国随时间变化的通货膨胀率，正如你看到的，
prices grew slowly in the '50s and '60s, sped up during the '70s and '80s, and then went back to growing slowly.
在50年代和60年代，价格增长缓慢，70年代和80年代，价格加速增长，然后回到增长缓慢的时期。
On the other hand, here's the rate of inflation in Japan.
另一方面，这是日本的通货膨胀率。
For the past 25 years, prices in Japan have actually been falling slightly. Economists call that deflation.
在过去25年里，日本的物价实际一直在小幅下降。经济学家称之为通货紧缩。
And here's the rate of inflation in Venezuela.
这是委内瑞拉的通货膨胀率。
The past several years have seen prices rising very fast there.
在过去几年里，那里的物价上涨得很快。
At the end of 2014, the inflation rate was nearly 70%. But what causes inflation?
到了2014年底，通货膨胀率接近了70%。但是，什么导致了通货膨胀呢？
Well, let's go find out in the Thought Bubble.
我们去“Thought Bubble”找找答案吧。
So let's assume we gave John 10 million U.S. dollars. Is he rich?
假设我们给约翰一千万美元。他富有吗？
Well, not if you're stuck on a desert island.
如果你被困在荒岛上的话就不富有。
Being rich isn't about how much money you have. It's about how much purchasing power you have.
有钱并不等于你有多少钱，而是你有多少购买力。
Let's put John back into society so he can start buying stuff.
我们把约翰放回社会，这样他就可以开始购物了。
If other people also have a lot of money, they're going to bid up the prices of goods and services.
如果其他人也有很多钱，他们就会抬高商品和服务的价格。
That last slice of pizza is 2.00 dollars but Hank might offer 3.00 dollars. John might counter-offer 10.00 dollars.
最后一块比萨饼价值2美元，但汉克可以出3美元。约翰可能还价10美元。
Actually this might be a bad example since John and Hank would probably share the pizza. They're brothers.
实际它还有可能是个糟糕的例子，因为约翰和汉克会分享披萨，他们是兄弟。
The point is that if people have a lot of money and they want to buy more stuff,
关键是，如果人们有很多钱，他们就会想买更多东西，
they're going to bid up the prices of things, causing inflation.
他们会抬高物价，引起通货膨胀。
This is actually called Demand Pull Inflation.
这就是所谓的需求拉动通胀。
In the language of economists, it's "too much money, chasing too few goods."
用经济学家的话来说就是，“钱太多，追逐的商品太少。”
Now another cause of inflation is the decrease of availability of an important productive resource, like oil or something.
通货膨胀的另一个原因是重要生产资源的减少，比如石油等。
An oil shortage, would increase the price of gasoline,
石油短缺会提高汽油价格，
increasing the cost of delivering flour, and cheese, and pepperoni.
从而增加送面粉、奶酪和意大利辣香肠的成本。
This would increase the cost of producing pizza.
这将增加生产比萨饼的成本。
And therefore decrease the number of pizzas that can be produced.
因此减少了可以生产的比萨饼数量。
Economists call this Supply Shock, and it causes something called Cost Push Inflation.
经济学家称之为供给冲击，它导致了所谓的成本推动通货膨胀。
So, to keep it simple, inflation is caused by either consumers bidding up the prices of stuff,
简单来说，通货膨胀要么是由消费者抬高价格引起的，
or producers rising prices and producing less, because there's an increase in production cost.
要么是生产商提高价格、减少产量，因为生产成本增加了。
Either way, inflation is the result of having more money than goods and services.
不管怎么说，通货膨胀是货币比商品和服务多的结果。
Thanks Thought Bubble.
感谢“Thought Bubble”。
So, who's got inflation today? Venezuela.
那么，今天谁有通胀呢？委内瑞拉。
In the 1950s and 60s and 70s, Venezuela had one of the strongest economies in Latin America with stable inflation.
在20世纪50、60和70年代，委内瑞拉是拉丁美洲最强大的经济体之一，通货膨胀稳定。
It's also a country with huge amounts of oil.
它也是个拥有大量石油的国家。
But this is Case Number 478 that natural resources don't equal economic bliss.
但这是“Case Number 478”，自然资源并不等于经济幸福。
Economic mis-management and political instability have reduce oil exports from Venezuela.
经济错误管理和政治不稳定减少了委内瑞拉的石油出口。
The government's tried to keep the economy growing by printing more money,
政府试图通过印钞来保持经济增长，
but that's only resulted in soaring prices. It's a bad scene.
但它只会导致价格飙升。真是糟糕。
But prices go up all the time without necessarily causing inflation.
但价格一直上涨不一定会导致通货膨胀。
Let's look at the prices of chocolate over the past few months and the price of housing ten years ago.
我们看看过去几个月的巧克力价格和十年前的房价。
Lots of inflation, right? Well, no.
大量的通货膨胀，对吧？但是没有通胀。
In the case of chocolate, we have a straight forward supply and demand story.
就巧克力而言，我们有一个直接的供求故事。
As China and other nations develop, their consumers are spending more on treats, like chocolate.
随着中国和其他国家的发展，他们的消费者在小吃上花得更多，比如巧克力。
Also, dark chocolate has become more popular world-wide.
此外，黑巧克力在全球范围内也越来越受欢迎。
Now both of these trends have increased demands for the coca beans, which is used to produce chocolate.
现在这两种趋势都增加了对可可豆的需求，后者被用来生产巧克力。
Now at the same time, disease and drought have limited harvests and decreased supply.
与此同时，疾病和干旱导致收成有限，供应减少。
Higher demand and lower supply means higher prices for chocolate.
更高的需求和较少的供应意味着巧克力价格上涨。
Now on the other hand, it's hard to explain the rise in home prices with just supply and demand.
另一方面，我们很难只用供求关系来解释房价上涨的原因。
The population didn't suddenly skyrocket or get that much richer,
人口并没有突然猛增或人们变得更富有，
and it's not like there was a shortage in building materials.
建筑材料也不像出现了短缺。
Between 2001 and 2006, home prices diverged from these fundamentals, in what economists call "a bubble."
从2001年到2006年，房价偏离了基本面，经济学家称之为“泡沫”。
In the early 2000s, low interest rates and deceitful lending practices encouraged more people to buy homes.
在2000年早期，低利率和欺骗性的借贷行为鼓励更多的人买房。
That raised demand and increased the price.
这种行为增加了需求并提高了价格。
But then people saw prices increase and assumed it would continue forever.
但随后人们看到价格上涨，并认为它会永远持续下去。
So they liquidated their beanie baby portfolios and bought houses in hopes of making a huge profit.
因此，他们清算了自己的豆豆娃投资组合并买了房子，希望能获得巨大利润。
This is called speculation. More buyers are pulled into the market and prices rose faster and faster.
这就是所谓的投机。更多买家被拉进市场，房价上涨得越来越快。
In fact, average home prices in the U.S. doubled between 2000 and 2006,
事实上，从2000年到2006年，美国的平均房价翻了一番。
and nearly tripled in cities like Los Angeles and Las Vegas.
在洛杉矶和拉斯维加斯等城市，房价几乎翻了三倍。
There were even more dramatic spikes in home prices in countries like Ireland and Spain.
在爱尔兰和西班牙等国，房价甚至出现了更大幅度的上涨。
News stories about rising real estate prices, along with easy credit,
房地产价格上涨的新闻报道以及宽松的信贷，
convinced even more people that buying a home was a one-way ticket to riches.
让更多人相信买房是致富的唯一途径。
At the time, there were plenty of people pointing out that rising home prices were unsustainable.
当时，有很多人指出，房价上涨是不可持续的。
In fact, in 2005 the Economist magazine called the global rise in home prices the biggest bubble in history.
事实上，在2005年，《经济学人》杂志称全球房价上涨是历史上最大的泡沫。
And economists like Robert Shiller and Nouriel Roubini were predicting a crash.
像罗伯特·席勒和努里尔·鲁比尼这样的经济学家预测经济会崩溃。
But those warnings couldn't compete with your brother-in-law bragging about how much he just made flipping a home.
但是这些警告比不上你姐夫吹嘘自己转手了多少房。
Or banks pushing NINJA loans, so more and more people got into the act.
或者也抵不过银行推动的“忍者贷款”，于是越来越多的人加入到这个行列中来。
Wait, Stan. There were ninja bankers? That's amazing!
等等，斯坦。有“忍者银行家”？那太神奇了!
Oh, NINJA stands for No Interest, No Jobs, and No Assets. That's not so amazing.
不，NINJA的意思是没有利息、没有工作、没有资产。这就不惊人了。
The problem with a bubble is that depends on an ever increasing supply of buyers,
经济泡沫的问题在于买家越来越多，
even if each person is betting that they'll be able to sell at a higher price to the next person.
即使每个人都押注他们能够以更高的价格卖给下一个人。
But eventually, you run out of buyers and the bubble bursts.
但最终，你没有买家了，泡沫破灭了。
Bubbles aren't a new thing.
经济泡沫不是新事物。
In the late 1990s there was a stock market bubble for companies involved in this brand new computer thingy, called the internet.
在20世纪90年代末，有一个股票市场泡沫，很多公司都参与了这个叫做互联网的全新电脑产品。
Investors poured billions of dollars into internet stocks, and they got in on the ground floor of pets.com or boo.com.
投资者向互联网股票投入了数十亿美元，进入pets.com或boo.com的底层。
It turns out these companies had only one floor, and it a deep, deep basement.
事实证明，这些公司只有一层楼，而且是一个很深很深的地下室。
The stock market collapsed in early 2000.
2000年初股市崩盘。
Perhaps the granddaddy of all bubbles was Dutch tulip mania in the 1630s.
也许所有经济泡沫的鼻祖是17世纪30年代的荷兰郁金香热。
Tulip gardens became a social fad among the emerging class of wealthy merchants, driving up their price.
郁金香花园成为了新兴富有商人阶层的社会风尚，导致其价格上涨。
More and more people got in on the tulip action, making quick fortunes.
越来越多的人加入到郁金香行动中来，迅速发财。
And that brought in even more people, desperate to get their hands on a tulip bulb.
而这种行为带来了更多人，他们孤注一掷地想要得到一个郁金香球茎。
At the height of the mania, people were willing to exchange twelve acres of land,
在狂热的鼎盛时期，人们愿意用12英亩土地、
or ten years worth of salary for a single tulip bulb.
或者10年薪水换一个郁金香球茎。
While a tulip bubble sounds incredibly beautiful, incredibly lovely;
虽然郁金香泡沫听起来难以置信的美丽和可爱;
just floating petals, red and pink and yellow...
但它们只是漂浮的花瓣，红色、粉红色和黄色……
Sorry. What am I talking about? The bubble burst and tulip bulbs are now less than a dollar.
抱歉，我在说什么？泡沫破裂，郁金香球茎现在不到一美元。
Understanding inflation is not just academic. This affects you.
理解通胀不仅仅是学术问题。它会影响你。
Someday you might have to ask your boss for a raise.
有一天，你可能得向老板要求加薪。
Knowing some economics can help you negotiate a real raise, adjusted for inflation.
了解一些经济学知识可以帮助你商议经通货膨胀调整过得真正加薪。
Thanks for watching. See you next time.
感谢您的收看，我们下期见。
Thanks for watching Crash Course Economics.
感谢您收看经济速成班。
It was made with the help of all these nice people and the greatest bubble of all.
它是由一群好心人和最大的泡沫创造的。
Thanks Thought Bubble.
感谢“Thought Bubble”。
If you want to help keep Crash Course free for everyone forever, consider going over to Patreon.
如果你想让速成班继续免费为大家服务，请到Patreon去订购。
It's a voluntary subscription platform that allows you to pay whatever you want monthly.
它是自愿订阅平台，这样你就可以按月支付任何你想要的东西。
Thanks for watching. Don't forget to be "irrationally exuberant", at least with your feelings.
感谢您的收看。别忘了“非理性繁荣”。
