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Donald Trump has a very nationalistic overall worldview that carries over into his trade policy.
总体来看，特朗普的世界观是比较民族主义的，他的贸易政策也受到了这一世界观的影响。
“...remember that! America first! America first!" He sees these kinds of things as very much zero-sum: in which one side wins and another side loses.
“……你们记着，美国第一，美国第一！”在他看来，贸易政策这些东西基本上都是零和游戏：要么输，要么赢。
“We’ve lost our jobs like we’re a bunch of babies. They’ve gone to other countries. They’ve gone to Mexico.
“我们丧失了大量的工作机会，还像婴儿一样对此无能为力。这些工作机会都跑到其他国家手里了。跑到墨西哥去了。
They’ve gone to many other countries....It’s all so easy, believe me. It’s all so easy.”
跑到很多国家去了……要做到这一点简直易如反掌，相信我，真的易如反掌。”
But in a complex system like global trade, it’s not always easy to tell who is winning.
但在国际贸易这么复杂的问题上，谁输谁赢往往不是一朝一夕的事。
Trump has suggested really really really strongly that he wants to crack down on imports from Mexico.
特朗普非常非常清楚地表示过他要打击来自墨西哥的进口贸易。
“...and plants and factories and everything else going into Mexico.” ...
“……包括工厂在内的一切都跑到墨西哥去了。”……
and that has driven down the value of Mexico’s currency an enormous amount.
这一变化导致墨西哥货币大幅贬值。
Ironically, making the peso cheaper makes it an even more attractive place to locate production
讽刺的是，比索汇率缩水使得墨西哥成了商家们为工厂选址时的热门对象。
because it means that, in effect, Mexican workers are being paid less and makes it harder for American factories to compete with Mexican ones.
比索汇率降低，墨西哥工人的薪水随之降低，美国工厂就更难和墨西哥工厂竞争了。
But that’s not what Donald Trump says is going to happen.
但特朗普许诺的并不是这幅景象。
“...but here's what happens: I will tell them, ‘You’re gonna move back, right?’
“……但是那会怎么样呢，我会告诉他们，‘你们会搬回来吧？’
and they are going to say ‘Yes, sir. We’re moving back to the United States. We’re going to build our factory in the United States.
他们会说，“会，先生。我们会搬回美国的。我们会在美国建厂的。
We’re not moving to Mexico and we are going to create a lot of new employment!'"
我们不会搬到墨西哥去，我们会为美国创造更多的工作机会！’”
Trump blames the loss of manufacturing jobs on trade deals like NAFTA:
特朗普把生产制造业岗位的丢失怪到了NAFTA
The North American Free Trade Agreement that reduced barriers to trade between The US, Canada, and Mexico.
也即缩减美国、加拿大和墨西哥三个国家之间贸易壁垒的北美自由贸易协定之类的的贸协头上。
"NAFTA will tear down trade barriers between our three nations.
“NAFTA将打破我们三国的贸易壁垒，
It will create the world's largest trade zone and create 20,000 jobs in this country."
形成世界上最大的贸易区，还将为美国创造2万个工作岗位。”
"We're not getting anything. We have NAFTA, which is a total and complete disaster."
“我们没有取得任何进展，都是因为NAFTA这种彻头彻尾的灾难性协定。”
While trade deals are an easy target on the campaign trail, they are only one part of the equation.
尽管贸易协定很容易沦为竞选游说针对的目标，但贸易协定不过是问题的一部分。
When you look at the really long term,
真正从长远的角度来看时，
you can see that manufacturing jobs have been declining as a share of the economy very steadily for a very long time
大家会发现，长期以来制造业的工作机会都在稳步缩减，而经济发展就避免不了工作机会缩水的问题。
and that tells us that, even though trade deals matter, they are not the driver of this big trend.
这也告诉我们，尽管工作机会的丧失确实跟贸易协定有关，贸易协定却不是造成这一趋势的罪魁祸首。
It’s just, over the long haul, because of automation,
不过是，从长远来看，自动化的普及——
as economies evolve and advance, more people work in the service sector, fewer people work in the manufacturing sector.
经济发展技术进步的产物——使得越来越多的人投入到了服务行业，越来越少的人留在制造业工作的缘故。
Trade plays a role in that, but it’s not the primary driver.
贸易是发挥了一定的作用，但不是主要因素。
Despite this fact, it’s exactly those jobs that Trump is claiming to protect by withdrawing from the TPP: The Trans-Pacific Partnership.
尽管如此，特朗普退出跨太平洋伙伴关系协定，宣称要保护的正是这些工作机会。
“A great thing for the American worker, what we just did.”
“我们刚刚所做的决定对美国工人阶层来说是个大好消息。”
This particular trade deal, it was designed to take a lot of Asian countries and bind them more closely together with The United States;
TPP这一协定原本是为了拉拢大量的亚洲国家和美国合作；
one reason countries were eager to do a trade deal with The United States, rather than with China,
而这些亚洲国家之所以迫切地想和美国而不是中国进行贸易往来，
is that they are closer to China and thus they are a little bit afraid of China and they want to keep The United States invested in Asia.
原因之一就是因为他们从地理位置上距离中国更近，所以他们多多少少有点儿畏惧中国，所以他们希望美国能在亚洲持续投资。
If we pull out, that may leave some of these countries feeling exposed or alone and like they need to enter into a Chinese economic orbit.
但如果我们从亚洲抽身，这些国家就可能有被暴露或者孤独感，这样一来他们就必须加入中国的经济圈了。
This decision means fewer cheap imports, but it also affects the market for American exports.
这一决定不仅意味着美国丧失了一定的便宜进口的机会，美国的出口市场也会受到影响。
One thing that's worth noting here is that farmers would've been big winners under Trans Pacific Partnership.
值得一提的是，农民原本可以成为TPP中的大赢家。
In particular, I think the expectation was that the United States would be able to export a lot more agricultural goods to Japan.
大家原本的预期是美国能够往日本输出比实际多得多的农产品。
If The US has joined the TPP, American farmers would have had a stronger relationship with Japan, the world’s fourth largest agricultural consumer.
如果美国加入了TPP，美国的农民就能和日本这一世界第四大农产品消费国建立紧密的联系。
Rural voters broke very very heavily in favor of Donald Trump, but they may actually lose out by his sort of less trade-friendly policies.
美国乡村地区的选民严重偏向支持特朗普，然而，在特朗普不那么支持自由贸易的政策下，这些农民很可能会棋错一着。
And it just shows that the world is complicated and it’s difficult to change things.
这刚好也说明了世界的复杂性，说明要想做出改变是很难的。
And, you really do need to talk to expert people.
说明做决定的时候真的该好好咨询一下专家人士。
“I am a free trader one hundred percent, but we need smart people making the deals and we don’t have smart people making the deals.”
“我是支持自由贸易的，这是百分百肯定的，但我们需要聪明的人帮我们做生意，但我们没有聪明的人才来帮我们。”
Trump’s view is that for us to win at trade somebody else has to be losing.
特朗普的看法是，我们要成为贸易的赢家，就必须得有人输。
"This country is going to start winning again. We don't win anymore."
“这个国家需要重新赢得贸易，我们已经很久没赢过了。”
I don't think that that is true.
我觉得他错了。
If he proves me wrong, you know, I think he’ll have a great deal to brag about,
如果他能证明错的是我，那他就可以大夸海口了，
but I think he’s going to find that, you know, the forces dragging American manufacturing employment down are fairly profound
但我觉得他只会发现，造成美国制造业工作岗位缩水的原因是根深蒂固的，
and that the kinds of things he thinks will fix it are just as likely to make things worse as better.
而且，他觉得能解决问题的那些办法只会让局面变得更糟而不是更好.
