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THE RISK REPORT by Ian Bremmer
风险报告 作者简·布雷默
Turkey charges into Syria, threatening its alliance with Russia
土耳其进军叙利亚，叙俄联盟受到挑战
TURKISH PRESIDENT RECEP TAYYIP Erdogan isn’t happy with the West.
土耳其总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安历来不满西方国家。
He’s angry at the Trump Administration, because it refuses to extradite Fethullah Gulen,
他对特朗普政府不满，因后者拒绝引渡
a former preacher now living in Pennsylvania whom Erdogan accuses of treachery and treason.
他指控身负叛国罪，如今住在宾州的前宣教人员法土拉·葛兰。
He is also infuriated by the fact that the U.S. has chosen to partner with Syrian Kurds in the fight against ISIS,
在镇压ISIS一事上，美国选择了和叙利亚的库尔德武装站在一起，对此他也是不胜其怒。
because he sees them as terrorists who support Kurdish separatists inside Turkey.
因为他觉得是叙利亚的这群恐怖分子在助纣为虐，支持土耳其境内的库尔德分裂分子。
He has demanded that the U.S. stop working with Syrian Kurds, but that won’t happen anytime soon.
他要求美国停止与叙利亚库尔德武装合作，然而短期之内这是不可能的。
Erdogan also has a gripe with Europe, which has condemned his human-rights record and refused to advance Turkey’s bid to join the E.U.
埃尔多安还抱怨欧洲，因为欧洲谴责他侵犯人权，还拒绝推动土耳其加入欧盟的计划。
All ambitious leaders need allies, and Erdogan has turned to Russian President Vladimir Putin,
所有雄心勃勃的领导人都需要盟友，埃尔多安则转向了俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京，
who is only too happy to help undermine NATO by courting one of its most strategically important members.
能够争取到北约最具战略意义的成员来进一步压缩北约的势力，普京当然是求之不得来了。
In November, Erdogan thumbed his nose at Western critics by purchasing a Russian-made air-defense system while scolding NATO allies for not offering him a better deal.
去年11月，埃尔多安一边购入俄罗斯制造的防空系统，一边责骂北约盟友不给他提供更好的交易，对西方评论家们是不屑一顾。
Erdogan is not likely to find Russia a reliable friend.
俄罗斯不太可能成为土耳其忠实的盟友。
In 2013, after his repeated warnings that Russian planes should not violate Turkey’s airspace en route to Syria,
2013年，在多次警告俄罗斯不应干涉土耳其至叙利亚的领空后，
Turkey shot down a Russian jet, killing a pilot.
土耳其击落了一架俄罗斯飞机，炸死了一名飞行员。
Putin responded by squeezing Turkey’s economy until Erdogan finally apologized.
为此普京开始制裁土耳其经济，埃尔多安最终道歉。
