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Hi, I'm Adriene Hill. This is Crash Course Economics,
嗨，我是埃德因·希尔。这里是经济速成班，
and today we're talking about the underground economy,
我们今天要讲地下经济、
the shadow economy, the informal economy, the black market, the unofficial economy, the hidden economy.
影子经济、非正规经济、黑市、非官方经济以及潜藏的经济。
Whatever you want to call it, today we're looking off the books, under the table at the underground economy.
你怎么称呼它都可以，今天我们将看看那些不入账的、秘密的地下经济。
So what exactly do we mean when we talk about the underground economy?
那么，我们在谈论地下经济时到底是指什么呢？
The first thing that comes to mind is the illegal stuff, bad-guy stuff, like making and dealing drugs or selling kidneys.
我首先想到的是非法事物或者负面的东西，比如制造和交易毒品或者售卖肾脏。
But when economists talk about it, they're talking about a much wider, less nefarious group of activities.
但经济学家们谈论它时，谈到的是一个范围更广、不那么邪恶的群体。
The informal economy they talk about is all the trade and work that happens off the books,
他们谈论的非正规经济是指不入账的、
under the table, outside of the sight and reach of government rules and taxes.
私底下的、政府规定和税收范围之外的所有贸易和工作。
And sure, some of these activities are illegal, but a lot of them are completely mundane.
当然，其中一些活动是非法的，但很多活动都很平常。
Take the mom who cuts hair out of her house without a licence from the state,
比如，妈妈在没有取得州许可的理发店剪发，
the guy who sells fruit on the side of the road, the nanny and housekeeper who get paid off the books,
小摊贩在路边卖水果、保姆和管家获得收入却没入账、
or you when you babysit or sold lemonade on the street corner.
或者你在街角当保姆或卖柠檬水。
All that work, and the money it made, can be considered part of the informal economy.
所有这些工作以及它们赚的钱都被认为是非正规经济的一部分。
As you might guess, it's hard to measure exactly how big this underground economy is, which makes some sense.
你可能猜到了，地下经济的规模很难准确衡量，这是有道理的。
It can be hard to get people who fly under the radar to answer survey questions about their wages.
我们很难让那些低调的人回答有关他们工资的调查问题。
Excuse me, small child, could you please give me resume estimates for the last four quarters of lemonade sales?
打扰一下，小孩，你能不能给我一份前四个季度的柠檬水销售履历表？
I also need the number of hours you worked and the cost of the supplies and equipment, okay?
我还需要你的工作时长和物资设备费用，可以给我吗？
Also, it's not like tax evaders, and rare animal smugglers, and cocaine dealers
而且，它不像逃税者或稀有动物走私贩或者毒贩那些人
are going to want to give a completely honest accounting of their finances.
想要对他们的财务状况做个完全可靠的计算。
But economists are a diligent bunch,
但是经济学家们是一群勤奋的人，
so they've also come up with indirect, macro-economic ways to try to wrap their head around the informal economy.
于是他们也想出了间接的宏观经济方法，试图弄明白非正规经济。
Let's go to the thought bubble.
我们去“thought bubble”。
One way economists try to estimate the size of the hidden economy
经济学家想要估测隐藏经济规模的一个方法是
is by looking at the difference between the total income a country reports and its total expenditures.
观察一个国家报告的总收入和总支出之间的差异。
If there wasn't an underground economy you'd expect the two to be pretty equal,
如果没有地下经济，你会认为这两者相当，
but if people are spending a whole lot more than they're legally making or borrowing,
但是如果人们的支出远超他们的合法收入或借贷，
that money has to be coming from somewhere,
那笔钱一定有来源，
so the difference between the two might help indicate the size of the informal economy in a given country.
所以两者间的差异可能有助于表明特定国家的非正规经济规模。
Economists also look at the demand for cash.
经济学家也关注现金需求。
Since most of the transactions that take place in the underground economy take place in cash.
因为大多数地下经济的交易都是以现金形式进行的。
It's not like most street vendors are set up to take Apple Pay,
这不像大多数街头商贩用苹果手机支付，
and you probably don't want to write a cheque for an endangered salamander or something.
而且你可能不想为濒危的火蜥蜴或其他东西的交易写张支票。
A greater demand for cash in an economy might signal a larger underground economy.
一个经济体的现金需求更大可能预示着一个更大的地下经济。
Another way economists attempt to measure the size of the informal economy is by studying electricity use.
经济学家试图衡量非正规经济规模的另一种方式是研究用电量。
It turns out electricity is a good indicator of total economic activity.
事实证明，电力是衡量总体经济活动的良好指标。
I guess everyone from off the books dishwashers to drug dealers need energy.
我想，从不入账的洗碗工到毒贩都需要能量。
So if the electricity use is high, and the GDP is relatively low,
所以如果用电量很高，而GDP相对较低，
economists estimate the underground economy is doing pretty well.
那么经济学家会估计地下经济发展得相当不错。
Thanks, Thought Bubble.
感谢“Thought Bubble”。
So just how big do economists think the informal economy is?
经济学家认为非正规经济规模有多大呢？
Huge! HUGE huge. Trillions of dollars, globally.
大！非常大！全球规模达到了数万亿美元。
The underground economy is less active in developed countries,
地下经济在发达国家不那么活跃，
where economists estimate it's between ten and twenty percent of total GDP.
经济学家估计它占GDP总量的10%到20%。
But that's still a lot of money.
但那也是一大笔钱了。
In the US, the underground economy is probably worth somewhere between one and two trillion dollars.
在美国，地下经济的估值可能在一万亿到两万亿美元之间。
And in developing countries, the underground economy accounts for more than a third of economic output.
在发展中国家，地下经济占经济产出的三分之一以上。
The International Labor Organization says
国际劳工组织说，
the informal economy also employs half to three-quarters of all non-farm employees in developing countries.
在发展中国家，非正规经济也雇用了一半到四分之三的非农业员工。
In India, for example, as many as ninety percent of workers have jobs off the books, out of reach of the government.
以印度为例，90%工人的工作是不入账的，不在政府监管范围之内。
And there have even been places where the entire economy was informal. Seriously.
甚至有些地方的整个经济都是非正规的。问题很严重。
Look up the Kowloon Walled City in Hong Kong. It was amazing! Bad, yes. But amazing.
看看香港的九龙城寨，它非常神奇！它当然是糟糕的，但很令人惊讶。
A lot of work in the informal economy is focused on selling or doing everyday things,
非正规经济中的很多工作集中在销售或做日常事务上，
just out of sight of the government,
只是脱离了政府的监管范围，
but we should take a minute to talk about the illegal trade that goes on around the world.
我们应该花点儿时间来谈谈世界各地正在进行的非法贸易。
According to the UN, organized crime is an 870 billion dollar a year business,
根据联合国的数据，有组织犯罪每年获利8700亿美元，
about one and a half percent of global GDP.
大约占全球GDP的1.5%。
Drug trafficking is the biggest chunk of that, about 320 billion dollars.
毒品走私占比最大，大约赚3200亿美元。
Counterfeiting earns about 250 billion dollars a year for criminal groups.
假冒伪劣产品每年为犯罪集团带来约2500亿美元的收入。
There's also billions getting made from human trafficking, smuggling people across borders.
此外还有通过人口贩卖、跨境走私人口赚得数十亿美元。
Exploiting the environment's profitable too.
开采环境也有利可图。
Timber trafficking is a three and a half billion dollar business.
木材贩运行业赚35亿美元。
Smugglers also kill and sell ivory from elephants, horn from rhinos, bones from tigers.
走私贩还猎杀大象，售卖象牙、犀牛角和虎骨。
The European Union recently asked member countries to do a better job counting vice in their GDP totals.
欧盟最近要求成员国在计算GDP总量中的卖淫收入时做得更好。
According to The New York Times,
根据《纽约时报》报道，
statisticians in Spain tried to pinpoint the average price of a room at a Spanish brothel,
西班牙的统计学家试图查明西班牙妓院房间的平均价格，
and what Spanish prostitutes charged per session.
以及西班牙妓女的收费。
Britain has also tried to put numbers on its sex and drug trade.
英国也试图统计性交易和毒品交易。
Its office of national statistics thinks prostitution and drug sales added about 10 billion pounds,
它的国家统计局认为卖淫和毒品销售为其2009年的GDP贡献了大约100亿英镑，
that's 17 billion dollars, to the country's GDP in 2009.
也就是170亿美元。
Because illegal markets are, by their nature, illegal, they can often be dangerous places to buy or sell.
由于非法市场的性质是非法的，它们往往是买卖的危险场所。
Take the market for human kidneys.
以人体肾脏市场为例。
Kidney sellers often get less for their kidney than they agreed to before surgery.
卖肾者卖肾得到的收入通常比手术前要少。
They might not get the medical care they were promised.
他们可能得不到承诺的医疗照顾。
People on the receiving end of the kidney sometimes end up with diseased or non-matching organs,
接受肾脏的人有时会发生病变或器官不匹配的情况，
and there's not much you can do if you illegally buy a lousy kidney.
如果你非法购买一颗差劲的肾脏，那么你做不了什么。
So some ethicists and economists argue the market for kidneys should be legalized.
因此，一些伦理学家和经济学家认为肾脏市场应该合法化。
They say it's better to allow the government to set some ground rules,
他们认为最好让政府制定一些基本规则，
than a market that it seems is going to exist with or without regulation.
而不是让有或没有监管的市场继续存在。
Allowing people to sell their kidneys could also help solve the supply problem,
允许人们出售肾脏也有助于解决供应问题，
keeping thousands of people who need new kidneys from dying each year.
满足每年成千上万需要新肾脏的人。
But making the kidney market legal, moving it into the official economy, has its own risks.
但将肾脏市场合法化，将其纳入官方经济，也有其自身风险。
In Iran, where it's actually legal to sell kidneys, the sellers are typically poor.
在伊朗，卖肾是合法的，卖家通常都很贫穷。
Do we really want poor people selling organs to help provide for their families?
我们真的想让穷人卖器官来供养家庭吗？
Do we want situations where people might be coerced into selling a kidney for money?
我们是否想要人们为了钱而被迫出售肾脏的情况出现？
Let's go back to the broader informal economy.
让我们回到更广泛的非正规经济上。
You might be thinking to yourself, okay, Adrian,
你可能会想，好了，埃德因，
I get that unscrupulous organ traffickers should be put out of business,
我知道肆无忌惮的器官贩子应该被取缔，
and I'm against protected rain forests getting chopped down as much as the next person,
我反对像其他人一样砍伐受保护的雨林，
but what's wrong with people doing legal jobs, just working off the books?
但是人们做合法的工作有什么错，只是因为收入没入账吗？
And it's a fair question. It depends on who you ask.
这是一个公平的问题。这取决于你问谁。
Groups like the International Labor Organization point out that workers in the informal economy
国际劳工组织这样的组织指出，非正规经济中的工人
don't have the same sort of safety net in place as people who work in regulated jobs.
不像受监管岗位上工作的人那样有安全保障。
They may not get sick time or health insurance.
他们可能没有患病时间或健康保险。
They might not get paid overtime, or get paid at all.
他们可能得不到加班费，或者根本得不到报酬。
They may not get to work with the safety precautions in place that the government would require.
他们可能无法采取政府要求的安全措施。
And while it's not always true, informal employment often means poor working conditions, and increasing poverty.
虽然事实并非总如此，但非正式就业往往意味着糟糕的工作条件和日益加剧的贫困。
The people who take this work are often women, and migrant labourers,
从事这类工作的往往是妇女和民工，
or people who don't have access to better jobs.
或者是那些找不到更好工作的人。
Economists also point out that a big informal economy makes it difficult for the government
经济学家们还指出，庞大的非正规经济使政府
to get an accurate count of important statistics like unemployment and income.
难以得到诸如失业和收入等重要数据的准确统计。
And that might encourage misguided policies.
这可能会鼓励错误的政策。
But the underground economy can offer jobs and work where they don't otherwise exist.
但是地下经济可以提供本来不存在的工作。
Researchers estimate the informal economy doubled during the financial crisis.
研究人员估计，非正规经济在金融危机期间翻了一番。
People who were laid off from their jobs with no prospects for formal employment
被解雇的人没有找到正式工作的希望，
picked up odd jobs to piece together a living,
靠打零工为生，
and they turned around and spent some of that money in the formal economy.
他们转身把那部分钱花在了正规经济中。
Places like the grocery story.
比如杂货店等地方。
The informal economy can serve as a temporary buffer for individuals, and the economy as a whole.
非正规经济可以作为个人和整个经济的临时缓冲。
But economists worry that the growth of the underground economy can set off a negative cycle.
但经济学家担心地下经济的增长会引发一个恶性循环。
Basically, as people drop out of the official economy and stop paying taxes, tax revenue falls.
从根本上来说，随着人们脱离官方经济停止纳税，税收收入会下降。
Governments are then faced with a couple of choices.
政府随后面临几个选择。
They can respond with cuts in spending on things like social safety nets, or they can increase taxes,
他们可以相应地削减社会安全保障等方面的开支，或者增加税收，
but that creates a vicious cycle, pushing more people into under-the-table jobs, and on and on.
但这会造成一个恶性循环，迫使更多的人从事不法工作，并不断恶化。
So the informal economy is complicated.
所以非正式经济是复杂的。
Governments can try to fight it, they can try to integrate it, but they can't ignore it.
政府可以尝试去对抗它，去整合它，但是不能忽视它。
Thanks for watching, we'll see you next week.
感谢您的收看，我们下期见。
Thanks for watching Crash Course Economics,
感谢您收看经济速成班，
which is made with the help of all of these nice people,
它是由这些好心人帮助制作的。
all of whom report their income to the penny.
他们都把自己的收入报告给了政府。
You can help keep crash course free for everyone forever by supporting the show at Patreon.
你可以通过支持Patron上的节目帮助速成班永远免费对所有人开放。
Patreon is a voluntary subscription service where you help make this show with your monthly contribution.
Patreon是个自愿订阅服务的平台，你可以每月捐助帮助节目制作。
And you get rewards!
你也能得到奖励！
Thanks for watching, Don't forget to be awesome.
感谢您的收看，不要忘了做个了不起的人。
