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I’m optimistic that we can create an awesome future with technology
我相信我们可以用科技创造出美好的未来
as long as we win the race between the growing power of the tech and the growing wisdom with which we manage the tech.
只要我们赢得科技发展和智慧进步之间的这场比赛
This is actually getting harder because of nerdy technical developments in the AI field.
这一点其实越来越难 因为人工智能（AI）领域那些奇怪的技术发展
It used to be, when we wrote state-of-the-art AI—
曾经 当我们写下最先进的AI时——
like for example IBM’s Deep Blue computer who defeated Gary Kasparov in chess a couple of decades ago—
比如几十年前在国际象棋中战胜了加里·卡斯帕罗夫的国际商业机器公司的深蓝电脑——
that all the intelligence was basically programmed in by humans who knew how to play chess
它所有的智力都是由会下象棋的人类通过编程输进去的
and then the computer won the game just because it could think faster and remember more.
电脑之所以能赢得比赛只是因为它的思考速度更快 脑容量更大
But we understood the software well.
但我们很了解软件
Understanding what your AI system does is one of those pieces of wisdom you have to have to be able to really trust it.
了解AI系统的功能是你能真正相信它的智慧之一
The reason we have so many problems today with systems getting hacked or crashing because of bugs
今天我们的系统会被入侵或者因故障而崩溃
is exactly because we didn’t understand the systems as well as we should have.
这些问题都是因为我们对系统的了解还不够
Now what’s happening is fascinating, today’s biggest AI breakthroughs are a completely different kind
现在的情况很有趣 如今AI最大的突破完全不同
where rather than the intelligence being largely programmed in an easy-to-understand code,
我们不再需要把智力编成通俗易懂的代码
you put in almost nothing except a little learning rule by which a simulated arc of neurons can take a lot of data and figure out how to get stuff done.
而是只需要输入一个小小的学习规则 模拟神经元可以通过这个规则获取大量数据并解决问题
This deep learning suddenly becomes able to do things often even better than the programmers were ever able to do.
突然间 这种深度学习解决问题的能力比程序员还要强
You can train a machine to play computer games with almost no hard-coded stuff at all.
你可以用几乎没有硬编码的方式教会机器玩电脑游戏
You don’t tell it what a game is, what the things are on the screen, or even that there is such a thing as a screen—
你不需要告诉电脑这是什么游戏 不用告诉它屏幕上是什么 甚至都不用让它知道还有屏幕这种东西——
you just feed in a bunch of data about the colors of the pixels and tell it,
你只需要输入一堆关于像素颜色的数据 然后告诉它
“Hey go ahead and maximize that number in the upper left corner,”
“嘿 在左上角把这个数字最大化”
and gradually you come back and it’s playing some game much better than I could.
慢慢地你会发现 它游戏玩得比你好很多
The challenge with this, even though it’s very powerful, this is very much “blackbox” now where,
虽然它很强大 但问题在于 这个东西很“黑箱化”
yeah it does all that great stuff—and we don’t understand how.
没错 它能做很多了不起的事——但我们不理解它是怎么做到的
So suppose I get sentenced to ten years in prison by a Robojudge in the future and I ask, “Why?”
假设未来我被一名机器人法官判决入狱10年 我问它“为什么”
And I’m told, “I WAS TRAINED ON SEVEN TERABYTES OF DATA, AND THIS WAS THE DECISION,”
它告诉我“我曾经受训的是数据的七兆兆字节 这就是最终决定”
It’s not that satisfying for me.
我对这个答案可不满意
Or suppose the machine that’s in charge of our electric power grid suddenly malfunctions and someone says,
或者假设控制我们电力网格的机器突然出现了故障 有人说
“Well, we have no idea why. We trained it on a lot of data and it worked,”
“我们不知道为啥 我们给它训练过很多数据 都没问题”
that doesn’t instill the kind of trust that we want to put into systems.
这可不会增加我们对系统的信任
When you get the blue screen of death when your Windows machine crashes or the spinning wheel of doom because your Mac crashes,
当你的电脑蓝屏死机 当你的Windows系统崩溃 或者是你的Mac崩溃只剩下转动之轮的时候
“annoying” is probably the main emotion we have,
“烦躁”可能是我们产生的主要情绪
but “annoying” isn’t the emotion we have if it’s myself flying an airplane and it crashes,
但如果是我们自己开的飞机坠机了
or the software controlling the nuclear arsenal of the U.S., or something like that.
或者软件控制了美国的核武库等等 我们定然不会“烦躁”
And as AI gets more and more out into the world
随着AI越来越多地进入人们的生活
we absolutely need to transform today’s packable and buggy AI systems into AI systems that we can really trust.
我们绝对需要把现在可打包的、漏洞多的AI系统转变成真正能让我们信任的AI系统
