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President Obama recently announced a campaign to attempt to destroy the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.
奥巴马总统最近宣布了一场旨在摧毁ISIS的运动。
We will degrade and ultimately destroy ISIL.
我们会削弱并最终摧毁伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国（简称ISIL）。
The American strategy is to use air power and local allies in Iraq and Syria
美国打算结合空军和伊拉克和叙利亚当地的盟友，
to try to eliminate the group and push it out of its strongholds.
消灭该集团，将其赶出据点。
This plan might be able to contain ISIS, but it will not be able to destroy it.
这个计划或许能控制住ISIS，但并不能彻底摧毁它。
Why not? There's two big reasons.
为什么？有两大原因。
The Syrian civil war is a catastrophe.
叙利亚内战是一场灾难，这背后有两大原因。
In humanitarian terms, it's claimed about 200,000 lives. It's displaced an extraordinary number of Syrians.
从人道主义的角度来看，这场战争夺去了将近20万人的生命。还让无数叙利亚人无家可归。
But in political terms, there are so many different factions inside Syria with competing incentives
但从政治角度来看，叙利亚境内有许多互相竞争的派别，
that it's very difficult to create an effective and stable anti-ISIS coalition.
因而很难建立起一个有效而稳定的反ISIS联盟。
Isis is powerful.
ISIS的战斗力十分强悍。
It's defeated al Qaeda in Syria, it has defeated Bashar al Assad
他们击败了叙利亚的基地组织，击败了巴沙尔·阿萨德，
and has defeated moderate Syrian rebel groups on the battlefield right now.
现在又在战场上击败了许多小型的叙利亚反叛组织。
The moderate rebels which Obama is going to support are very weak,
奥巴马即将支持的那些规模较小的反叛组织的战斗力要逊色得多，
and even training 5,000 or 6,000 as his plan seems to call for won't be enough in order to defeat ISIS,
即便按照他的计划训练五六千人也不足以击败ISIS，
a force the CIA estimates between 20,000 and 31,500.
因为据CIA估计，后者的规模在2万人到3.15万人之间。
let's move on to Iraq.
下面我们来讲讲伊拉克。
The problem in Iraq is that there are two really large religious groups that are competing for control over the Iraqi government.
伊拉克的问题在于有两个十分庞大的宗教团体正在争夺对伊拉克政府的控制权。
Shia Muslims and Sunni Muslims.
他们就是什叶派穆斯林和逊尼派穆斯林。
The Iraqi majority is Shia. The Iraqi minority is Sunni.
伊拉克大部分人都信什叶派，只有少部分信逊尼派。
The majority, the Shias, have oppressed repeatedly the Sunnis after taking control of the state from Saddam Hussein after the original American invasion.
美国入侵伊拉克后，多数派什叶派，从萨达姆·侯赛因手里夺得了国家政权，之后便不断压制逊尼派。
That is fueling ISIS's power, because Iraqis Sunnis flocked to ISIS.
此举壮大了ISIS的势力，因为逃走的伊拉克逊尼派信众投靠了ISIS。
They don't trust the government to maintain their basic rights,
他们不相信政府会捍卫他们的基本权利，
and they're willing to try out ISIS rule rather than the central government's rule.
他们宁愿尝试接受ISIS而不是中央政府的统治。
The US needs to turn Sunni Iraqis against ISIS.
美国得让逊尼派跟ISIS反水。
Otherwise, ISIS will have cities to hide in, and a large supply of recruits will replenish itself.
否则，ISIS还是会有藏身之处，还是会有大量新兵补充。
Since 9/11, the United States has not destroyed a single major jihadi group.
911事件以来，美国连一个主要的圣战组织都没能摧毁掉。
The reasons that they exist have to do with politics, rather than a lack of military force to counterbalance them alone.
那些圣战组织之所以能存在，除了与没有军事力量能够与他们抗衡有关，还与政治有关。
It's hard to imagine that the United States will have its first success with ISIS, one of the strongest jihadi groups we've ever seen.
我们很难想象，美国首次成功摧毁目前最强悍的圣战组织ISIS会是什么样。
