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The South Sudan civil war erupted in 2013 as rebels took up arms against the government.
南苏丹内战爆发于2013年，当时叛军拿起武器对抗政府。
A peace agreement signed two years later broke down and the conflict spread.
两年后签署的和平协议破裂，冲突蔓延开来。
Fighting has continued despite another ceasefire deal signed last month.
尽管上个月签署了另一项停火协议，战斗仍在继续。
It has taken a devastating human toll.
它造成了毁灭性的人员伤亡。
Researchers say the war has led to nearly 400,000 deaths
研究人员表示，这场战争已经导致近40万人死亡，
with around half of those attributable directly to violence, mostly adult males.
大约一半直接归咎于暴力冲突，多数死亡者为成年男性。
I think this places South Sudan more broadly on a par with the likes of Syria
我认为南苏丹冲突从大体上和叙利亚更像，
and Iraq as opposed to other sub-Saharan African conflicts that we have seen in the past
和伊拉克冲突类似，而不是像我们过去看到的撒哈拉以南的非洲冲突。
The analysis led by Professor Checchi was funded by the United States Institute of Peace.
凯奇教授领导的分析是由美国和平研究所资助的。
Researchers used census projections to estimate population figures alongside mortality data from household surveys.
研究人员使用人口普查预测来估计人口数字，同时也从家庭调查中获取死亡率数据。
They also captured data on various predictors of mortality such as conflict intensity, displacement and food security.
他们还收集了各种死亡率预测因素的数据，如冲突强度，流离失所和粮食安全。
A statistical model was then used to estimate the the death toll attributable to the war covering not only violent deaths,
然后使用一个统计模型来估计战争造成的死亡人数，其中不仅包括暴力死亡，
but also those caused by a lack of health care, food shortages or disease, the indirect consequences of the conflict.
还包括因缺乏医疗，食物短缺或疾病造成的死亡，这些是冲突的间接后果。
They have actually been shown in many different armed conflicts to be sometimes the majority of deaths attributable to the crisis.
在许多不同的武装冲突中，多数死亡都是这些因素引起的。
The researchers say their findings underscore the urgency of resolving the conflict.
研究人员说，他们的发现强调了解决冲突的紧迫性。
They also hope the analysis can inform the humanitarian response in South Sudan, one of the largest worldwide.
他们希望该分析能够唤醒对南苏丹的人道主义救助，这也是全球最大的人道主义救援之一。
Its total funding requirement in 2018 is 1.7 billion dollars, still only half funded according to the United Nations.
2018年所需资金总额17亿美元，但联合国称救助资金只有一半。
I'm hoping that by putting fairly concrete, objective,
我希望通过公布一些相对具体，客观，
hopefully scientifically credible numbers around some crude metric over the level of suffering and impact that these crises have on people,
以及有可信度的科学性数据来证明危机带来的苦难和影响，
we're actually going to be able to influence that broad global commitment to humanitarian financing.
以此来唤醒全球对人道主义救助金的承诺。
Checchi now hopes to apply the statistical technique to other African conflicts,
凯奇希望这一统计技术可以应用在其它非洲冲突中，
starting with Nigeria and the war against Boko Haram Islamist militants.
从尼日利亚打击“博科圣地”伊斯兰极端分子开始。
Henry Ridgwell for VOA news, London.
美国之音新闻，亨利·里奇韦尔伦敦报道。
