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In 2015, the leaders of the world made a big promise.
2015年，世界领袖们做出了一个大承诺。
A promise that over the next 15 years, the lives of billions of people are going to get better with no one left behind.
这个承诺就是，在接下来十五年，数十亿人的生活会变得更好，没有人会被丢下。
That promise is the Sustainable Development Goals -- the SDGs.
那个承诺，就是可持续发展目标--缩写SDGs。
We're now three years in; a fifth of the way into the journey. The clock is ticking.
现在已经过了三年，走过了整个旅程的五分之一。时间不断流逝。
If we offtrack now, it's going to get harder and harder to hit those goals.
如果我们现在就偏离轨道，要达成目标会变得越来越难。
So what I want to do for you today is give you a snapshot on where we are today,
所以，今天我想要做的，是让各位能约略了解今天我们走到哪里了，
some projections on where we're heading and some ideas on things we might need to do differently.
对未来我们会朝哪里前进做一些预测，也思考一下有哪些地方，我们需要用不同的方式来做。
Now, the SDGs are of course spectacularly complicated. I would expect nothing less from the United Nations.
当然，可持续发展目标是非常复杂的。很符合我对联合国的期望。
How many goals? Maybe something tried and tested, like three, seven or 10.
要多少个目标？也许有尝试过且有测试过的，比如，三个、七个或十个。
No, let's pick a prime number higher than 10. Seventeen goals.
不，咱们挑个比十大的质数吧。十七个目标。
I congratulate those of you who've memorized them already. For the rest of us, here they are.
如果你已经把那些目标都记下来了，我要恭喜你。至于其他人，目标在这里。
Seventeen goals ranging from ending poverty to inclusive cities to sustainable fisheries;
十七个目标，从终结贫困到包容城市，到可持续渔业；
all a comprehensive plan for the future of our world.
都是为了我们世界的未来所做的全面计划。
But sadly, a plan without the data to measure it.
但感伤的是，没有数据可以测量这个计划。
So how are we going to track progress?
所以我们要如何追踪进展？
Well, I'm going to use today the Social Progress Index.
嗯，今天我要用的是社会进步指数。
It's a measure of the quality of life of countries, ranging from the basic needs of survival -- food, water, shelter, safety
它是针对国家生活质量所做的一种测量值，范围从基本的生存需求-- 食物、水、庇护所、安全，
through to the foundations of well-being -- education, information, health and the environment
一直到幸福的基础--教育、信息、健康及环境，
and opportunity -- rights, freedom of choice, inclusiveness and access to higher education.
还有机会--权利、做选择的自由、包容及取得高等教育的途径。
Now, the Social Progress Index doesn't look like the SDGs, but fundamentally, it's measuring the same concepts,
社会进步指数看起来并不像可持续发展目标，但根本上，它是在测量同样的概念，
and the Social Progress Index has the advantage that we have the data.
而社会进步指数有一项优势，就是我们有数据。
We have 51 indicators drawn from trusted sources to measure these concepts.
我们有51项指标，都来自可信任的来源，可用来测量这些概念。
And also, what we can do because it's an index,
此外，因为它是一个指数，
is add together all those indicators to give us an aggregate score about how we're performing against the total package of the SDGs.
我们还能把所有这些指标加起来，得到一个合计的分数，代表我们对于整套可持续发展目标的表现。
Now, one caveat. The Social Progress Index is a measure of quality of life.
有件事要注意。社会进步指数是生活质量的测量值。
We're not looking at whether this can be achieved within the planet's environmental limits.
我们在看的并不是在地球的环境限制之内是否能达成它。
You will need other tools to do that.
需要其他工具才能做到这一点。
So how are we doing on the SDGs?
所以在可持续发展目标上，我们做得如何？
Well, I'm going to put the SDGs on a scale of zero to 100.
我要把可持续发展目标放到零到一百的评分尺度上。
And zero is the absolute worst score on each of those 51 indicators: absolute social progress, zero.
零分表示这所有51个指针最糟糕的分数：绝对的社会进展，零分。
And then 100 is the minimum standard required to achieve those SDGs.
一百分是要达到可持续发展目标的最低标准。
A hundred is where we want to get to by 2030.
我们希望在2030年能达到一百分。
So, where did we start on this journey? Fortunately, not at zero.
所以，我们在这趟旅程的起始点在哪里？幸运的是，并非从零分开始。
In 2015, the world score against the SDGs was 69.1.
世界的可持续发展目标在2015年的分数是69.1分。
Some way on the way there but quite a long way to go.
已经在朝目标前进，但还有很长的路要走。
Now let me also emphasize that this world forecast, which is based on data from 180 countries, is population weighted.
我也得要强调一下，这是世界预测，它的根据是180个国家的资料，以人口数做加权。
So China has more weight in than Comoros; India has more weight in than Iceland.
所以，中国的权重比科摩罗还要高；印度的权重比冰岛还要高。
But we could unpack this and see how the countries are doing.
但我们能将它拆开来，看国家的表现。
And the country today that is closest to achieving the SDGs is Denmark.
现今，最接近达成目标的国家是丹麦。
And the country with the furthest to go is Central African Republic.
还有最长的路要走的国家是中非共和国。
And everyone else is somewhere in between.
其他的国家都在它们之间。
So the challenge for the SDGs is to try and sweep all these dots across to the right, to 100 by 2030.
所以，可持续发展目标的挑战就是要试着在2030年把所有这些数据点都扫到最右边一百分的地方。
Can we get there? Well, with the Social Progress Index, we've got some time series data.
我们能做到吗？针对社会进步指数，我们有一些时间数列的数据。
So we have some idea of the trend that the countries are on, on which we can build some projections.
所以，我们能多少了解一点国家的趋势，我们可以再利用趋势来做预测。
So let's have a look. Let's start with our top-performing country, Denmark.
所以，咱们来看看吧。咱们从表现最好的国家丹麦开始。
And yes, I'm pleased to say that Denmark is forecast to achieve the SDGs by 2030.
是的，我很高兴能够说，预测丹麦能在2030年达成可持续发展目标。
Maybe not surprising, but I'll take a win.
也许不让人意外，但也是一场胜仗。
Let's look at some of the other richer countries of the world -- the G7.
咱们来看看世界上其他较富有的国家--世界七大工业国家。
And we find that Germany and Japan will get there or thereabouts.
我们发现，德国和日本会达到目标，或很接近。
But Canada, France, the UK and Italy are all going to fall short.
但加拿大、法国、英国和意大利都没办法。
And the United States? Quite some way back. Now, this is sort of worrying news.
美国呢？还要再差一点。这是蛮让人担心的消息。
But these are the richest countries in the world, not the most populous.
但这些是世界上最富有的国家，不是最多人口的国家。
So let's take a look now at the biggest countries in the world,
所以，现在咱们来看看世界上最大的国家，
the ones that will most affect whether or not we achieve the SDGs.
最会影响到我们是否能达成可持续发展目标的国家。
And here they are -- countries in the world with a population of higher than 100 million, ranging from China to Ethiopia.
就是这些国家--世界上人口超过一亿人的国家，范围从中国到埃塞俄比亚。
Obviously, the US and Japan would be in that list, but we've looked at them already.
很显然，美国和日本都会在名单上，但我们已经看过它们了。
So here we are. The biggest countries in the world; the dealbreakers for the SDGs.
所以，来了。世界上最大的国家；能否达成可持续发展目标的关键。
And the country that's going to make most progress towards the SDGs is Mexico.
将会在可持续发展目标上有最大进展的国家是墨西哥。
Mexico is going to get to about 87, so just shy of where the US is going to get but quite some way off our SDG target.
墨西哥会达到大约87分，只比美国会达到的分数差一点，但离我们的可持续发展目标还相当远。
Russia comes next. Then China and Indonesia. Then Brazil -- might've expected Brazil to do a bit better.
下一个是俄罗斯。接着是中国和印度尼西亚。然后是巴西--本来预期巴西会比这好一点的。
Philippines, and then a step down to India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nigeria, and then Ethiopia.
菲律宾，接着下面是印度、孟加拉国共和国、巴基斯坦、尼日利亚，接着是埃塞俄比亚。
So none of these countries are going to hit the SDGs.
这些国家通通不会达成可持续发展目标。
And we can then take these numbers in all the countries of the world to give ourselves a world forecast on achieving that total package of the SDGs.
接着，我们可以拿全世界所有国家的这些数字来做一个世界预测，预测可持续发展目标的整体达成度。
So remember, in 2015 we started at 69.1.
别忘了，在2015年，我们是从69.1分开始的。
I'm pleased to say that over the last three years, we have made some progress.
我很高兴能够说，在过去三年间，我们有一些进展。
In 2018, we've hit 70.5, and if we project that rate of progress forward to 2030,
2018年，我们达到了70.5分，如果我们把这样的进展率推算到2030年，
that's going to get us to 75.2, which is obviously a long way short of our target.
我们可以达到75.2分，很显然，离我们的目标还很远。
Indeed, on current trends, we won't hit the 2030 targets until 2094.
的确，依目前的趋势，我们要到2094年才能达到目标，不是2030年。
Now, I don't know about you, but I certainly don't want to wait that long.
我不知道你们怎么样，但我是绝对不想等那么久。
So what can we do about this? Well, the first thing to do is we've got to call out the rich countries.
所以我们能怎么办？嗯，第一件事，我们得召集富有国家。
Here are the countries closest to the SDGs, with the greatest resources, and they're falling short.
它们是最接近可持续发展目标的国家，并且最有资源，却又做不到目标。
Maybe they think that this is like the Old World where goals for the UN are just for poor countries and not for them.
也许，它们认为这就像是旧世界，联合国的目标只是为贫穷国家设定的，不是它们。
Well, you're wrong. The SDGs are for every country, and it's shameful that these wealthy countries are falling short.
嗯，你们错了。可持续发展目标是给每个国家的，这些富有的国家没达到目标实在很可耻。
Every country needs a plan to implement the SDGs and deliver them for their citizens.
每个国家都需要一个计划来导入可持续发展目标，并为其公民实现这些目标。
G7, other rich countries -- get your act together.
七大工业国家，其他富有国家--振作起来好好做。
The second thing we can do is look a bit further into the data
我们能做的第二件事，就是在看资料时更深入一点，
and see where there are opportunities to accelerate progress or there are negative trends that we can reverse.
看看哪里有机会可以让进展更快，或是哪里有我们可以逆转的负面趋势。
So I'm going to take you into three areas.
所以，我要带各位进入三个领域。
One where we're doing quite well, one where we really should be doing better and another where we've got some real problems.
其中一个，我们做得很好，其中一个，我们应该要能做更好，还有一个，我们真的有些问题要解决。
Let's start with the good news, and I want to talk about what we call nutrition and basic medical care.
咱们先从好消息开始，我想要谈的，是我们所谓的营养和基本医疗照护。
This covers SDG 2 on no hunger and the basic elements of SDG 3 on health,
这就包含了关于终止饥饿的可持续发展目标二，及关于健康的目标三底下的基本元素，
so maternal and child mortality, infectious diseases, etc ...
母亲和孩童的死亡率，感染性疾病……
This is an area where most of the rich world has hit the SDGs.
在这个领域中，大部分的富有国家都达到了可持续发展目标。
And we also find, looking at our big countries, that the most advanced have got pretty close.
从这些国家当中，我们也发现，最先进的国家最靠近目标。
Here are our 11 big countries, and if you look at the top, Brazil and Russia are pretty close to the SDG target.
这是我们的前十一大国家，请看看顶端，巴西和俄罗斯都很靠近可持续发展目标。
But at the bottom -- Ethiopia, Pakistan -- a long way to go.
但在底部--埃塞俄比亚、巴基斯坦--还有很长的路要走。
That's where we are in 2018. What's our trajectory?
这是我们2018年的状况。我们的轨道是什么？
On the current trajectory, how far are we going to get by 2030?
若依目前的轨道，到2030年我们能走多远？
Well, let's have a look. Well, what we see is a lot of progress. See Bangladesh in the middle.
咱们来看看。我们看到的是许多进展。中间的是孟加拉国共和国。
If Bangladesh maintains its current rate of progress, it could get very close to that SDG target.
如果孟加拉国共和国维持目前的进展，它可能会非常接近可持续发展目标。
And Ethiopia at the bottom is making a huge amount of progress at the moment.
而埃塞俄比亚在底下，目前它的进展相当大。
If that can be maintained, Ethiopia could get a long way.
如果能维持下去，埃塞俄比亚可以走得很远。
We add this all up for all the countries of the world and our projection is a score of 94.5 by 2030.
我们把全世界所有国家的数字都加起来，我们预测2030年的分数会是94.5分。
And if countries like the Philippines, which have grown more slowly, could accelerate progress, then we could get a lot closer.
如果像菲律宾这类成长比较慢的国家能够加速进展，那么我们就能离目标更近。
So there are reasons to be optimistic about SDGs 2 and 3.
所以，对可持续发展目标二和三抱持乐观是合理的。
But there's another very basic area of the SDGs where we're doing less well, which is SDG 6, on water and sanitation.
但有另一个可持续发展目标的基本领域，我们就没有做得很好，那就是关于水和卫生的可持续发展目标六。
Again, it's an SDG where most of the rich countries have already achieved the targets.
同样的，这也是大部分富有国家已经达成的可持续发展目标。
And again, for our big countries -- our big 11 emerging countries,
同样的，大国--我们的十一个新兴大国，我们可以发现，
we see that some of the countries, like Russia and Mexico, are very close to the target,
当中有些国家，比如俄罗斯和墨西哥，都非常接近目标，
but Nigeria and other countries are a very long way back.
但尼日利亚和其他国家则落后非常多。
So how are we doing on this target?
所以，在这个目标上，我们做得如何？
What progress are we going to make over the next 12 years based on the current direction of travel?
根据目前的行进方向，在接下来十二年，我们会有什么进展？
Well, here we go ... and yes, there is some progress.
嗯，来看吧……是的，有一些进展。
Our top four countries are all hitting the SDG targets -- some are moving forward quite quickly.
排名前四的国家达到了可持续发展目标--有些国家向前进的速度非常快。
But it's not enough to really move us forward significantly.
但这样还不足够让我们有显著的进展。
What we see is that for the world as a whole, we're forecasting a score of around 85, 86 by 2030 -- not fast enough.
我们可以看到，就整个世界来说，我们预测2030年的分数会在85或86分--不够快。
Now, obviously this is not good news, but I think what this data also shows is that we could be doing a lot better.
很显然，这不是好消息，但我认为这些数据也意味着我们还可以做得更好许多。
Water and sanitation is a solved problem. It's about scaling that solution everywhere.
水和卫生的问题已经解决。重点是要把解决方案的规模做大，扩展到各地。
So if we could accelerate progress in some of those countries who are improving more slowly
所以，如果我们能帮一些改善缓慢的国家加速进展，
Nigeria, the Philippines, etc. then we could get a lot closer to the goal.
尼日利亚、菲律宾等等，那么我们就可以更接近目标许多。
Indeed, I think SDG 6 is probably the biggest opportunity of all the SDGs for a step change.
的确，我认为在所有可持续发展目标中，目标六可能是做到步伐调整的最大机会。
So that's an area we could do better.
这个领域，我们可以做得更好。
Let's look finally at an area where we are struggling, which is what we call personal rights and inclusiveness.
咱们最后来看看一个让我们很挣扎的领域，就是我们所谓的个人权利和包容。
This is covering concepts across a range of SDGs.
这领域包含了可持续发展目标的不少概念。
SDG 1 on poverty, SDG 5 on gender equality, SDG 10 on inequality, SDG 11 on inclusive cities and SDG 16 on peace and justice.
关于贫穷的可持续发展目标一、关于性别平等的目标五、关于不平等的目标十、关于包容城市的目标十一，及关于和平与正义的目标十六。
So across those SDGs there are themes around rights and inclusiveness,
在上述那些可持续发展目标中，都有关于权利和包容的主题，
and those may seem less immediate or pressing than things like hunger and disease,
和饥饿及疾病相比，它们可能没有那么急切或迫切，
but rights and inclusion are critical to an agenda of no one left behind.
但如果要做到不丢下任何人，权利和包容就很重要。
So how are we doing on those issues? Let's start off with personal rights.
所以，我们该怎么处理这些议题？咱们从个人权利谈起。
What I'm going to do first is show you our big countries in 2015.
我要先让各位看看2015年的大国。
So here they are, and I've put the USA and Japan back in, so it's our 13 biggest countries in the world.
这里，我把美国和日本又重新放进来，所以这些是世界上最大的十三个国家。
And we see a wide range of scores. The United States at the top with Japan hitting the goals; China a long way behind.
我们看到的分数差距很大。最上头的美国和日本达到目标；中国落后很多。
So what's been our direction of travel on the rights agenda over the last three years?
所以，在过去三年，在权利方面，我们的进展方向是什么？
Let's have a look. Well, what we see is actually pretty ugly.
咱们来看看。嗯，我们所看到的其实十分难看。
The majority of the countries are standing still or moving backwards,
大多数国家都没有改变或开倒车，
and big countries like Brazil, India, China, Bangladesh have all seen significant declines. This is worrying.
像是巴西、印度、中国、孟加拉国共和国这些大国都有明显的下降。这很让人担心。
Let's have a look now at inclusiveness.
现在来看看包容。
And inclusiveness is looking at things like violence and discrimination against minorities, gender equity, LGBT inclusion, etc.
包容要看的项目包括针对少数族群的暴力和歧视、性别平等、LGBT包容性等等。
And as a result, we see that the scores for our big countries are generally lower.
因此，我们可以看见，一般来说，大国的分数都比较低。
Every country, rich and poor alike, is struggling with building an inclusive society.
每个国家，不论富有或贫穷，在建立包容社会上，都非常挣扎。
But what's our direction of travel? Are we building more inclusive countries?
但我们的方向是什么？我们在建立比较有包容性的国家吗？
Let's have a look -- progress to 2018. And again we see the world moving backwards:
咱们来看看--到2018年的进展。同样的，我们看见世界正在开倒车：
most countries static, a lot of countries going backwards -- Bangladesh moving backwards
大部分的国家在原地踏步，许多国家在开倒车--孟加拉国共和国在开倒车，
but also, two of the countries that were leading -- Brazil and the United States
但当中有两个国家在领头--巴西和美国，
have gone backwards significantly over the last three years.
在过去三年间开倒车的情况最显著。
Let's sum this up now for the world as a whole.
现在，咱们针对全世界来做个总结。
And what we see on personal rights for the whole world is we're forecasting actually a decline in the score on personal rights to about 60,
就全世界的个人权利来说，我们看到的是我们预测个人权利的分数会下降到大约60分，
and then this decline in the score of inclusiveness to about 42.
接着，包容性的分数则是下降到约42分。
Now, obviously these things can change quite quickly with rights and with changes in law, changes in attitudes,
很显然，随着权利，随着法律的改变、态度的改变，这些都有可能很快就跟着改变，
but we have to accept that on current trends, this is probably the most worrying aspect of the SDGs. How I've depressed you ...
但我们得要接受，依照目前的趋势，这可能是可持续发展目标的各面向中最让人担心的一个了。我让大家多么失望啊……
I hope not because I think what we do see is that progress is happening in a lot of places
我希望没有，因为我认为我们看见的是在许多地方都看得到进展，
and there are opportunities for accelerating progress.
并且有机会可以加速进展。
We are living in a world that is tantalizingly close to ensuring that no one need die of hunger or malaria or diarrhea.
我们现在居住的世界，非常接近可以做到确保没有人会因为饥饿、疟疾或腹泻而死。
If we can focus our efforts, mobilize resources, galvanize the political will, that step change is possible.
如果我们能把我们的努力聚焦、动用资源、刺激政治意愿，那么调整步伐是可能的。
But in focusing on those really basic, solvable SDGs, we mustn't forget the whole package.
但当我们聚焦在那些非常基本、可解决的可持续发展目标上时，我们也不能忘记整套目标。
The goals are an unwieldy set of indicators, goals and targets, but they also include the challenges our world faces.
这些目标是非常大的一组指针、目标和目的，但它们也包括了我们的世界在面临的挑战。
The fact that the SDGs are focusing attention on the fact that we face a crisis in personal rights and inclusiveness is a positive.
可持续发展目标的注意力是集中在我们面临个人权利和包容性的危机上，这是好事。
If we forget that, if we choose to double down on the SDGs that we can solve,
如果我们忘了这点，如果我们选择在我们能解决的可持续发展目标上加倍下注，
if we go for SDG à la carte and pick the most easy SDGs, then we will have missed the point of the SDGs,
如果我们把各项可持续发展目标拆开来，挑选最容易的目标，那我们就搞错了可持续发展目标的重点，
we will miss the goals and we will have failed on the promise of the SDGs. Thank you.
也将会错失目标，无法完成对于可持续发展目标的承诺。谢谢。
