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Would you like to know what's in our future?
你想知道未来么？
What's going to happen tomorrow, next year, or even a millennium from now? Well, you're not alone.
明天，明年，甚至千年之后，都会发生什么呢？好吧，你不是第一个这样思考的人。
Everyone from governments to militaries to industry leaders do, as well,
任何人，从政府及军方到私企老板，都和你一样想要知道，
and they all employ people called futurists who attempt to forecast the future.
他们都雇佣了同一种人，未来主义者，就是那些可以预言未来的人。
Some are able to do this with surprising accuracy.
他们中的一些人预言的精准度令人惊叹。
In the middle of the 20th century,
在20世纪中期，
a think tank known as the RAND Corporation consulted dozens of scientists and futurists
有一个出名的智囊团，兰德公司，拥有众多科学家及未来主义者，
who together forecast many of the technologies we take for granted today,
他们一起预言了许多我们如今认为是理所当然的科技技术，
including artificial organs, the use of birth control pills,
比如人造器官，避孕药的使用，
and libraries able to look up research material for the reader.
以及图书馆能协助读者查寻资料库的技术。
One way futurists arrive at their predictions is by analyzing movements and trends in society,
未来主义者能够准确预言的方法之一是分析社会变迁及大趋势，
and charting the paths they are likely to follow into the future with varying degrees of probability.
并预测出他们在未来发生的不同程度的可能性。
Their work informs the decisions of policymakers and world leaders,
他们的工作成果影响着政策制定者和领袖们，
enabling them to weigh options for the future that otherwise could not have been imagined in such depth or detail.
使他们能够权衡影响未来的决定，否则他们的思想无法达到如此深又精细的地步。
Of course, there are obvious limits to how certain anyone can be about the future.
当然，任何人所能预测的未来都是有限的。
There are always unimaginable discoveries that arise which would make no sense to anyone in the present.
超出预计的新发现总在出现，这些发现或许对于现在的我们毫无意义。
Imagine, for example, transporting a physicist from the middle of the 19th century into the 21st.
想象一下，比如，将一位来自十九世纪中期的物理学家传送到二十一世纪。
You explain to him that a strange material exists, Uranium 235,
你将一种奇特的物质介绍给他，鈾235，
that of its own accord can produce enough energy to power an entire city, or destroy it one fell swoop.
它自身裂变的能量就能供给于一整座城市的需求，也能在一瞬间摧毁它。
'How can such energy come from nowhere?' he would demand to know. 'That's not science, that's magic.'
“这样的能量如何能无中生有？”他一定会想知道。“这不是科学，是魔法。”
And for all intents and purposes, he would be right.
从任何角度上讲，他都是对的。
His 19th century grasp of science includes no knowledge of radioactivity or nuclear physics.
他十九世纪的科学知识中没有任何关于放射性亦或核物理的知识。
In his day, no forecast of the future could have predicted X-rays, or the atom bomb,
在那时，没有任何预言能够预言到X光射线，或者原子弹，
let alone the theory of relativity or quantum mechanics.
更不用说相对论或是量子力学。
As Arthur C. Clarke has said, 'Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.'
就像亚瑟·克拉克所说，“任何足够先进的技术都难于和魔术区分开来。”
How can we prepare, then, for a future that will be as magical to us
我们如何才能为一个几近于魔术般的未来做准备呢，
as our present would appear to someone from the 19th century?
就如同某个来自于十九世纪的人看着现在的我们。
We may think our modern technology and advanced data analysis techniques
我们或许认为现代技术和数据分析，
might allow us to predict the future with much more accuracy than our 19th century counterpart, and rightly so.
相对十九世纪的技术与人们，可以使我们更准确的预测未来，是这样没错。
However, it's also true that our technological progress has brought with it new increasingly complex and unpredictable challenges.
但是同时，我们的技术进步也面对着前所未有的挑战和复杂性。
The stakes for future generations to be able to imagine the unimaginable are higher than ever before.
对于未来的人们来说，预测未来的困难度将是盈千累万的。
So the question remains: how do we do that?
所以问题依旧存在：我们如何为未来做准备？
One promising answer has actually been with us since the 19th century and the Industrial Revolution
一个成功的答案其实从十九世纪及工业革命，
that laid the foundation for our modern world.
基奠了现代社会基础的时期就开始出现了。
During this time of explosive development and invention, a new form of literature, science fiction, also emerged.
在这段充斥着大量发现与发明的时期，一种新的小说形式，科幻小说因运而生了。
Inspired by the innovations of the day, Jules Verne, H.G. Wells,
当时的创新启发了儒勒·凡尔纳和赫伯特·乔治·威尔斯
and other prolific thinkers explored fantastic scenarios, depicting new frontiers of human endeavor.
以及其他思想家一同寻找不真实的情景，并描绘出人类世界的新边界。
And throughout the 20th century and into the 21st, storytellers have continued to share their visions of the future
纵观20至21世纪，故事家从不曾断绝分享他们对于未来的看法，
and correctly predicted many aspects of the world we inhabit decades later.
并且成功预言了许多几个世纪之后我们的世界所发生的事。
In 'Brave New World,' Aldous Huxley foretold the use of antidepressants in 1932, long before such medication became popular.
在《美丽新世界》这本书中，1932年，阿道司.赫胥黎预言到了抗抑郁药的使用，这是在这种药剂普及开来的很久以前。
In 1953, Ray Bradbury's 'Fahrenheit 451,' forecast earbuds, 'thimble radios,' in his words.
1953年，雷·布拉德伯里在《华氏451度》中预言到了耳机，“顶针式无线电，”他这样描述。
And in '2001: A Space Odyssey,' Arthur C. Clarke described a portable, flat-screen news pad in 1968.
在电影《2001年：太空漫游》中，生活在1968年的亚瑟·克拉克描绘了一个便携式平板新闻发射台（Pad）。
In works that often combine entertainment and social commentary,
拥有娱乐及社交实况报道双重功能的作品鼓励我们，
we are invited to suspend our disbelief and consider the consequences of radical shifts in familiar and deeply engrained institutions.
暂停自己的难以置信，并结合现实情况考虑发生在熟悉的事物与根深蒂固的传统上巨大的变化。
In this sense, the best science fiction fulfills the words of philosopher Michel Foucault,
这样说，最好的科幻小说诠释了哲学家米歇尔·福柯的话：
'I'm no prophet. My job is making windows where there were once walls.'
“我不是预言家。我的工作是为墙面制作一扇窗户。”
Free from the constraints of the present and our assumptions of what's impossible,
摆脱“现实”的束缚以及对于事情是“不可能发生的”的假设，
science fiction serves as a useful tool for thinking outside of the box.
科幻小说是一个让我们摆脱思维定式的工具。
Many futurists recognize this, and some are beginning to employ science fictions writers in their teams.
许多预言家都发现了这点，他们中的一些人开始为团队雇佣科幻小说家。
Just recently, a project called iKnow proposed scenarios that look much like science fiction stories.
就在最近，一个叫做“iKnow”的项目提出了假设，一个看上去更像是科幻故事的假设。
They include the discovery of an alien civilization,
他们囊括了外星文明的发现，
development of a way for humans and animals to communicate flawlessly, and radical life extension.
发展处一种可以让动物与人类无障碍交流的方法，以及延长有限的生命。
So, what does the future hold?
所以，未来到底会有什么？
Of course, we can't know for certain, but science fiction shows us many possibilities.
当然，我们现在还无法获知，但科幻小说给予了我们许多可能性。
Ultimately, it is our responsibility to determine which we will work towards making a reality.
最终，努力实现其中的某一种，是我们的责任。
