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Hi, I'm Craig, and this is Crash Course Government and Politics,
大家好，我是克雷格，这里是政府与政治速成班。
and today we're going to talk about where public opinion comes from.
今天我们要讨论的是公众舆论的来源。
It comes from my mind brain!
它来自我的大脑!
And yours! And Stan's! Although no one really cares to hear from Stan's mind brain...
你的!和斯坦的!虽然没人真的想听斯坦的想法…
Just kidding Stan. You're crying?
开玩笑的斯坦。你在哭吗?
Political ideologies are specific to individuals, but right now we're gonna try to explain the factors that shape public opinion in the aggregate, which is a fancy word for, like, all the people.
政治意识形态是特定于个人的，但现在我们要试着解释影响公众舆论的整体因素，这是一个花哨的词，指所有的人。
A person's opinions on politics are very much grounded in their ideology: whether they consider themselves liberal or conservative, but that doesn't mean they aren't susceptible to outside factors.
一个人对政治的看法在很大程度上是基于他们的意识形态的：不管他们认为自己是自由派还是保守派，但这并不意味着他们不受外部因素的影响。
I get my opinions from PewDiePie.
我从PewDiePie那里得到了我的意见。
Three of the main influences on our political opinions are the government, private groups, A.K.A. interest groups, and the media.
影响我们政治观点的三个主要因素是政府、私人团体、又称利益团体和媒体。
A.K.A. my T.V. and my Internet.
也就是我的电视和网络。
There's a lot of debate about which of these is more effective, and like anything a lot depends on the individual and the circumstances in which the group is trying to move public opinion.
关于哪种方法更有效有很多争论，就像任何事情一样，这在很大程度上取决于个人和群体试图改变公众舆论的环境。
Probably the biggest thing that the government can do to shape public opinion is to do things.
也许政府在塑造公众舆论方面所能做的最大的事情就是有所作为。
Whether it's raising or lowering taxes, or invading other countries, when the government does stuff, we got opinions about it.
无论是提高或降低税收，还是入侵其他国家，当政府有所作为时，我们对此都会有自己的看法。
More recently government inactivity, at least in terms of congressional lawmaking, has also had an impact on public opinion.
最近，政府的不作为，至少在国会立法方面，也对公众舆论产生了影响。
It seems like Congress' approval ratings have gotten lower and lower as they pass fewer and fewer bills.
看来国会通过的法案越来越少，支持率也越来越低。
But aside from doing, or not doing, their jobs, the government actively shapes public opinion by engaging in public relations maneuvers and manipulating the news cycle.
但是，除了做或不做他们的工作，政府通过参与公共关系策略和操纵新闻周期，积极塑造公众舆论。
Let's go to the Thought Bubble.
让我们进入思想泡泡。
The President is especially good at controlling the news cycle since he can go on television whenever he wants.
总统尤其擅长控制新闻圈，因为他可以随时上电视。
The idea that the President might be at the center of the news started in the 20th Century.
总统可能是新闻中心的想法始于20世纪。
Probably with Theodore Roosevelt, who saw the office of the presidency as a “bully pulpit”.
或许始于西奥多•罗斯福，他将总统职位视为“头号讲坛”。
But it really picked up steam with Franklin Roosevelt, who began the trend of presidents speaking directly to the American people with his “fireside chats”.
但是，富兰克林·罗斯福的“炉边谈话”却让这一趋势真正升温。罗斯福开启了总统与美国人民直接对话的潮流。
These were direct appeals to Americans to support the president's policies, and a classic example of presidential P.R.
这些都是直接呼吁美国人支持总统的政策，也是总统公关的一个经典例子。
Since then, the government has gotten more sophisticated with its public relations, although perhaps not more effective.
自那以后，政府在公关方面变得更加老练，尽管可能没有更有效。
President Clinton was known for having a war room to coordinate his P.R. apparatus.
众所周知，克林顿总统有一个作战室来协调他的公关机构。
But all the spin in the world didn't make Americans support his healthcare initiative.
但是，世界上所有的旋转并没有使美国人支持他的医疗保健计划。
Presidents Bush and Obama have continued this trend, using public opinion polls to polish their images, even trying to figure out what sort of vacations they should take.
布什总统和奥巴马总统延续了这一趋势，他们利用民意调查来美化自己的形象，甚至试图弄清楚他们应该去哪里度假。
But as with Clinton, there's not a ton of evidence that their P.R. activities worked.
但与克林顿一样，没有太多证据表明他们的公关活动奏效。
This probably has something to do with the changing media landscape, which we will discuss in greater future episodes.
这可能与不断变化的媒体环境有关，我们将在以后的更多章节中讨论。
One innovation that has not worked all that well are policy commercials known as video news releases.
有一项创新效果不太好，那就是被称为视频新闻发布的政策广告。
President Bush in particular tried to sway public opinion by paying for P.R.pieces that looked and sounded like news stories which made his policies sound good.
布什总统尤其试图通过资助公共关系来左右公众舆论那些看起来和听起来都像新闻报道的文章使他的政策听起来不错。
This was especially true of his education policies.
他的教育政策尤其如此。
I'll leave it to you to decide whether you think “No Child Left Behind” was a success,
我让你来决定你是否认为《不让一个孩子掉队》是成功的，
but the point is that you need to be very careful when watching news stories about actual polices these days.
但是，问题是，当你看最近有关实际政策的新闻报道时，你需要非常仔细。
There's also a historical explanation for why government efforts to create positive public opinion are less successful than we might think.
还有一个历史原因可以解释为什么政府创造积极公众舆论的努力没有我们想象的那么成功。
In the 1960's and 1970's, the Vietnam War and then the Watergate Scandal put a massive dent in the people's trust in the government,
在上世纪六七十年代，越南战争和水门事件极大地削弱了人们对政府的信任，
which is understandable since government officials were lying about the war and using the C.I.A. to spy on Americans.
这是可以理解的，因为政府官员在战争问题上撒谎，并利用 C.I.A. 监视美国人。
I bet if you ask your parents, or maybe your grandparents, you'll hear a story about how much better the government was back in the '50s and early '60s,
我敢打赌，如果你问你的父母，或者你的祖父母，你会听到一个关于政府在50年代和60年代早期有多好的故事，
but that might be a reflection of the generally robust economy, and a Cold War consensus that criticizing the government was unpatriotic, you communist sympathizer!
但这可能反映了总体上强劲的经济，以及一种冷战共识，即批评政府是不爱国的，你们这些共产主义同情者!
And if you're African-American the 1950's and early 1960's probably don't look so rosy either.
如果你是非裔美国人，那么50年代和60年代初可能也不那么乐观。
Thanks, Thought Bubble.
谢谢，思想泡泡。
This brings us to another point about public opinion generally:
这就引出了关于公众舆论的另一个观点：
It's highly reactive to current events, especially the economy, or eagles being in your vicinity and you wanting to punch them.
这是对当前事件的高度反应，特别是经济，或老鹰在你附近，你想要击打它。
I don't think it's a coincidence that presidential and congressional approval ratings have been pretty low during the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis.
2008年金融危机之后，总统和国会的支持率一直很低，我认为这并非巧合。
I mean, Americans love to complain, but the six years following 2008 have seemed pretty awful.
我的意思是，美国人喜欢抱怨，但2008年之后的6年似乎相当糟糕。
Or maybe it has a lot to do with the other two primary influences on public opinion.
或许这与另外两种对公众舆论的主要影响有很大关系。
Private groups, especially organized interest groups,
私人团体，特别是有组织的利益团体，
but also less-formally-political organizations like churches, can have a significant effect on the way the public views government and its polices.
但也有一些非正式的政治组织，比如教堂，会对公众看待政府及其政策的方式产生重大影响。
Any group with a particular interest in legislation can mount an advertising campaign for or against a law, provided that they have the money to do so.
任何对立法有特殊兴趣的团体都可以发起支持或反对法律的广告活动，只要他们有钱这么做。
Sometimes these groups exist already, like the National Rifle Association, which works hard to ensure that stringent regulations on firearms don't get passed.
有时这些组织已经存在，比如美国步枪协会，它努力确保严格的枪支管理条例不被通过。
Other times an interest group will grow up around a specific issue, as often happens in states like California that feature ballot initiatives.
其他时候，一个利益集团会围绕一个特定的问题成长起来，就像在加州这样以投票倡议为特色的州经常发生的那样。
The growth of the Internet as a source of news, information, and advertising has lowered the cost of public relations and makes it easier for specific interest groups to get their messages out.
作为新闻、信息和广告来源的互联网的发展降低了公共关系的成本，并使特定的利益集团更容易将信息发布出去。
Like the time I Tumbled about how the dress was totally black and blue!
就像那次我被那件衣服弄得青一块紫一块的！
Often the group that's better at swaying public opinion has more money.
通常，更善于左右公众舆论的群体拥有更多的钱。
A great example of how an interest group with a lot of money and a single issue can shape public opinion was the “Harry and Louise” ad campaign sponsored by the Health Insurance Association of America.
美国健康保险协会发起的“哈里与露易丝”广告宣传活动，就是一个很好的例子，说明一个拥有大量资金和单一议题的利益集团如何能够塑造公众舆论。
Over the course of a year in 1993 and 1994 the group sponsored 14 television ads featuring a fictitious couple, Harry and Louise, who fretted over the potentially calamitous consequences of President Clinton's health care proposals.
在1993年和1994年的一年时间里，该组织赞助了14个电视广告，主角是虚构的哈里和路易丝夫妇，他们对克林顿总统的医疗改革提案可能带来的灾难性后果感到担忧。
The ads cost between 14 and 20 million dollars, and are widely credited with helping move public opinion against the Clinton health policy.
这些广告耗资1400万至2000万美元，被广泛认为有助于推动公众舆论反对克林顿的医疗政策。
Some groups don't have as much money.
有些团体没有那么多钱。
Public interest research groups often use volunteers or very low paid interns to go door to door or stand in the street handing out information about issues that concern them, such as the environment.
公共利益研究组织经常利用志愿者或报酬很低的实习生挨家挨户上门，或站在街上分发与他们有关的问题的信息，比如环境问题。
Both liberal and conservative groups sponsor “think tanks” that produce research intended to change people's minds.
自由派和保守派团体都赞助“智库”，这些智库进行旨在改变人们想法的研究。
On the right are groups like the Heritage Foundation and the American Enterprise Institute.
右派是传统基金会和美国企业研究所等组织。
On the left you might have heard of the Brookings Institute.
左派，你可能听说过布鲁金斯学会
All the information that's put out by various think tanks and interest groups probably wouldn't have as big an impact if not for the third factor shaping public opinion: the media.
如果不是第三个影响公众舆论的因素：媒体，各种智库和利益集团发布的所有信息可能不会产生如此大的影响。
Of the three, the media tends to be the most powerful force in shaping public opinion because it's everywhere,
在这三种力量中，媒体往往是塑造公众舆论的最强大的力量，因为它无处不在，
and it's easy to access, and people look all nice with their makeup and the flashy graphics make them seem real smart.
而且它很容易被看到，人们看起来都很漂亮，他们的化妆和华丽装束使他们看起来真的很聪明。
For most of us the news media is the lowest cost way to get our information that shapes our opinion.
对我们大多数人来说，新闻媒体是获取塑造我们观点的信息的成本最低的方式。
The main way that the media shapes public opinion is by choosing what stories to cover and not cover.
媒体塑造公众舆论的主要方式是选择报道什么和不报道什么。
It's pretty hard to have an opinion on a topic if you know nothing about it.
如果你对一个话题一无所知，你很难对它有自己的看法。
Although many would say it's getting easier and easier, at least on Twitter.
尽管很多人会说这变得越来越容易，至少在Twitter上是这样。
One way the media shapes what we know is through what is called “priming”.
媒体塑造我们所知事物的一种方式是通过所谓的“启动”。
That's when you put a coat of primer on the house before you paint it.
那就是你在油漆房子之前先在上面涂一层底漆。
The paint sticks real good. No.
油漆粘得很好。不。
This is when the media prepares the public to take a particular view of an issue, often through the amount of coverage it gives.
这是指媒体准备让公众对一个问题有一个特定的看法，通常是通过它提供的报道量。
For example, if media outlets chose to focus on crime, they do a crime-prime, then crime will become a greater concern to the public, and this might translate into more political action.
例如，如果媒体选择关注犯罪，他们做了一个犯罪的黄金时期，那么犯罪将成为一个更大的关注公众，这可能转化为更多的政治行动。
Closely related to priming is “framing”, which is the way the media outlets choose to interpret an event for us.
与启动密切相关的是“框架”，即媒体选择为我们解释事件的方式。
The launch of Obamacare is a good example.
奥巴马医改的推出就是一个很好的例子。
Some media outlets focused on the numbers of people who signed up for healthcare who didn't previously have it, and some focused on the failure of the initial launch of healthcare.gov.
一些媒体关注的是以前没有医疗保险的注册人数，还有一些关注的是healthcare.gov最初推出时的失败。
The point is the stories the media decides to tell about an issue inevitably change the way the public thinks about that issue.
关键是，媒体决定讲述的故事不可避免地改变了公众对这个问题的看法。
So that's a brief introduction to the way that government, private groups, and the media can attempt to shape public opinion, and I know a lot of this seems like common sense,
这是对政府，私人团体和媒体试图塑造公众舆论的方式的一个简单介绍，我知道这似乎是常识，
but I think it's good to look closely at our opinions and to question where they come from.
但我认为，仔细审视我们的观点并质疑它们的来源是有益的。
This is especially true when it comes to the media, which is changing so fast the political scientists are struggling to figure out what its effects on our political thinking might be.
当涉及到媒体时尤其如此，它变化如此之快，政治科学家们正在努力弄清楚它对我们的政治思维可能产生的影响。
This is good news for political scientists because it promises future employment, but difficult for those of us trying to create videos that explain how the world of politics works.
这对政治科学家来说是个好消息，因为它预示着未来的就业机会，但对于我们这些试图制作解释政治世界如何运作的视频的人来说，却很困难。
Much of what I've told you here will probably change over the next few years, but your ability to think about it shouldn't, as well as your ability to click on the video and play it.
我在这里告诉你的很多东西在未来几年可能会改变，但你思考的能力不应该改变，以及你点击视频播放的能力也不应该改变。
And watch it again.
再看一遍。
Even though it's two years old.
尽管它已经两年了。
Thanks for watching!
感谢收看！
See you next time!
下次见！
Crash Course Government and Politics is produced in association with PBS Digital Studios.
政府与政治速成班是与PBS数字工作室联合制作的。
Support for Crash Course US Government comes from Voqal.
对美国政府速成班的支持来自Voqal。
Voqal supports nonprofits that use technology and media to advance social equity.
Voqal支持使用技术和媒体促进社会公平的非营利组织。
Learn more about their mission and initiatives at voqal.org.
更多关于他们的使命和倡议，请访问voqal.org。
Crash Course is made with the help of all these nice public opinion-havers.
速成班是在所有这些有良好舆论的人的帮助下完成的。
Thanks for watching.
谢谢收看。
