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"Will Artificial Intelligence ever replace humans?" is a hotly debated question these days.
“人工智能会替代人类吗？”这是最近热议的问题。
Some people claim computers will eventually gain superintelligence, be able to outperform humans on any task, and destroy humanity.
一些人认为电脑最终将获得超级智能，能够取代人类做任何任务并摧毁人类。
Other people say "don't worry, AI will just be another tool we can use and control, like our current computers."
其他人则说，“不要担心，AI将和现在的电脑一样，成为人类可以使用和控制的另一种工具。”
So we've got physicist and AI-researcher Max Tegmark back again to share with us
所以我们请到了物理学家兼人工智能研究员Max Tegmark
the collective takeaways from the recent Asilomar conference on the future of AI that he helped organize
最近他帮助组织了一场关于人工智能未来会议（Asilomar），他将与我们分享会上的结论
and he's going to help separate AI myths from AI facts.
并且他将帮助我们区分AI事实和AI神话。
Hello!
大家好！
First of all, Max, machines (including computers) have long been better than us at many tasks, like arithmetic, or weaving,
首先，机器（包括电脑）在很多任务中早已比我们优秀，比如算数或编织，
but those are often repetitive and mechanical operations.
但那些通常都是重复性的、机械性的操作。
So why shouldn't I believe that there are some things that are simply impossible for machines to do as well as people?
所以为什么我不应该相信，有些事情，是人类可做而机器不可完成的呢？
Say making minutephysics videos, or consoling a friend?
比如制作一分钟物理视频，或者安慰朋友？
Well, we've traditionally thought of intelligence as something mysterious that can only exist in biological organisms, especially humans.
我们传统上认为智能是很神秘的东西，只存在于生物体里，特别是人类。
But from the perspective of modern physical science, intelligence is simply a particular kind of information processing and reacting
但从现代物理科学的角度来说，智能只是一种特殊的信息处理方式和反应，
performed by particular arrangements of elementary particles moving around,
它由基本粒子的特殊排列来完成，
and there's no law of physics that says it's impossible to do that kind of information processing better than humans already do.
并且没有物理定律表明智能无法更好地完成人类从事的事情。
It's not a stretch to say that earthworms process information better than rocks, and humans better than earthworms,
毫不夸张地说，蚯蚓比石头更善于处理信息，人类比蚯蚓更善于处理信息，
and in many areas, machines are already better than humans.
并且在很多方面，机器已经比人类更好了。
This suggests we've likely only seen the tip of the intelligence iceberg,
这表明我们只看到了智能的冰山一角，
and that we're on track to unlock the full intelligence that's latent in nature and use it to help humanity flourish - or flounder.
并且我们正在解锁潜伏在自然界中的智能并利用它帮助人类繁荣—或者挣扎。
So how do we keep ourselves on the right side of the "flourish or flounder" balance?
那么我们如何在“繁荣还是挣扎”的天平上保持正确的方向呢？
What, if anything, should we really be concerned about with superintelligent AI?
如果有的话，我们真的应该担心超级智能吗？
Here's what has many top AI researchers concerned: not machines or computers turning evil,
许多顶级AI研究人员所担心的：不是机器或电脑变得邪恶，
but something more subtle: superintelligence that simply doesn't share our goals.
而是一些更为微妙的东西：超级智能和我们的目标并不一样。
If a heat-seeking missile is homing in on you, you probably wouldn't think: "No need to worry, it's not evil, it's just following its programming."
如果一枚热追踪导弹瞄准了你，你可能不会想：“不用担心，它并不坏，它只是按程序办事。”
No, what matters to you is what the heat-seeking missile does and how well it does it, not what it's feeling, or whether it has feelings at all.
不，对你来说重要的是热追踪导弹的功能和性能，而不是它的感觉，或者它是否有感觉。
The real worry isn't malevolence, but competence.
真正要担心的不是恶意而是能力。
A superintelligent AI is by definition very good at attaining its goals, so the most important thing for us to do is to ensure that its goals are aligned with ours.
超级智能很善于完成它的目标，所以对我们来说，最重要的是确保它的目标和我们的一致。
As an analogy, humans are more intelligent and competent than ants, and if we want to build a hydroelectric dam where there happens to be an anthill,
打个比方，人类比蚂蚁更聪明、更能干，如果我们想在有蚁丘建一座水电站的话，
there may no malevolence involved, but, well... too bad for the ants.
我们没有恶意，但是……对蚂蚁来说这太糟糕了。
Cats and dogs, on the other hand, have done a great job of aligning their goals with the goals of humans –
另一方面，猫和狗在使它们的目标与人类的目标一致方面做得很好—
I mean, even though I'm a physicist, I can't help think kittens are the cutest particle arrangements in our universe...
我是说，虽然我是一名物理学家，我会不禁认为小猫是宇宙中最可爱的粒子排列...
If we build superintelligence, we'd be better off in the position of cats and dogs than ants.
如果我们建立超级智能，我们最好站在猫狗一样的角度，而不是蚂蚁。
Or better yet, we'll figure out how to ensure that AI adopts our goals rather than the other way around.
或者更好的是，我们将找出如何确保AI采纳我们的目标，而不是相反。
And when exactly is superintelligence going to arrive? When do we need to start panicking?
究竟什么时候超级智能才会出现呢？我们什么时候开始恐慌？
First of all, Henry, superintelligence doesn't have to be something negative.
首先，超级智能并不是负面的东西。
In fact, if we get it right, AI might become the best thing ever to happen to humanity.
事实上，如果我们正确使用，AI可以成为人类历史上发生的最好的事情。
Everything I love about civilization is the product of intelligence, so if AI amplifies our collective intelligence enough
我热爱文明，因为关于它的一切都是智慧的产物，所以如果人工智能增强了我们的集体智慧，
to solve today's and tomorrow's greatest problems, humanity might flourish like never before.
让我们足以解决今天和未来的最大问题，那么人类可能会空前繁荣。
Second, most AI researchers think superintelligence is at least decades away...
第二，大部分AI研究人员认为超级智能至少是几十年后的事情了.....
Buuuut the research needed to ensure that it remains beneficial to humanity (rather than harmful) might also take decades,
但是要确保它对人类有益（而不是有害），还需要几十年的研究，
so we need to start right away.
所以我们需要马上开始。
For example, we'll need to figure out how to ensure machines learn the collective goals of humanity,
例如，我们需要弄清楚如何确保机器学习人类的集体目标，
adopt these goals for themselves, and retain the goals as they keep getting smarter. And what about when our goals disagree?
为自己设定这些目标并随着智能的增长依然坚持这些目标。如果我们的目标不一致怎么办？
Should we vote on what the machine's goals should be? Just do whatever the president wants?
我们应该投票决定机器的目标吗？就照着总统的意愿来？
Whatever the creator of the superintelligence wants? Let the AI decide?
或者照着超级智能创造者的意愿来？还是让AI自己决定？
In a very real way, the question of how to live with superintelligence is a question of what sort of future we want to create for humanity.
实际上， 如何与超级智能共存的问题是我们想为人类创造什么样的未来。
Which obviously shouldn't just be left to AI researchers, as caring and socially skilled as we are.
显然这个问题不应该仅留给AI研究人员，他们和我们一样有爱心和社交技能。
Thanks, Max! So, uh, how do I get involved to make sure we don't end up living in a superintelligence-powered dictatorship?
感谢Max。我怎么才能确定我们最终不会生活在一个超级智能独裁的世界呢？
At the Future of Life Institute (which is sponsoring this video),
在Future of Life Institute（本视频赞助方）
we've built a site where you can go to answer questions, ask questions,
我们已经建立了一个网站，你可以去回答或提问，
and otherwise contribute your thoughts to help shape the future of AI policy and research. Link's in the video description.
或者贡献你的想法去帮助塑造未来AI政策和研究。
Awesome.
超赞。
