The stakes in Ukraine乌克兰“电话门”事件所冒的风险In the impeachment inquiry, while there is a clear one-sentence summary of what Trump did—尽管弹劾调查一句话便言简意赅地道明了特朗普的所作所为——he hijacked American foreign policy to attempt to extort an investigation of a political rival from a desperate American ally—绑架国家外交政策，企图逼迫走投无路的美国盟友调查其政治对手，there is no good and simple explanation of the harm he stood to inflict on American national interests.特朗普可能给民族利益造成的危害却并非三言两语就能说清的。It's in understanding the gravity of the harm that Americans can begin to answer the question, "Why now?"只有明白这一危害的严重性，美国民众才能对“为何现在（弹劾他）？”这一问题有所眉目。Even if Trump did do something wrong, why impeach him during an election year?即便特朗普有错在先，为何一定要选在选举年弹劾他？Why seek to remove him the very year when voters can render their own judgment on his candidacy?为何要选择在选民能够对他的候选资格做出自主判断时将他赶下台？The answer is short—because Trump's corruption could have had profound strategic consequences—答案很简单——那就是，特朗普的腐败行径原本可能造成极为严重的战略后果——but the explanation is a bit longer,具体解释起来却要麻烦一些，and it requires the assistance of a timely report on Russian military capabilities from the RAND Corporation.需要调取兰德研究所分析俄罗斯军事力量的一份报告。The report is clear.这份报告写得很清楚。Many Americans are aware of Russia's capabilities in cyberwarfare and disinformation operations,不少美国人对俄罗斯开展网络战和散布假情报的能力都已有一定的了解，

but they're largely unaware of advances in its conventional military capabilities.但对俄罗斯常规军事力量取得的进展大多不甚了了。Russia has accomplished two things of real importance in the past decade or so of military modernization.过去的近十年时间里，俄罗斯在军事现代化方面取得了两项重大成就。First, it has substantially modernized and professionalized its force.其一，该国的部队经历了显著的现代化、专业化革新。Second, it has optimized it for operations that are designed to place NATO,其二，该国部队还做了进一步的优化部署，以便开展行动，our most vital international alliance, in perhaps an impossible military, strategic and political bind.将我们最重要的国际联盟——北约逼入或将无法摆脱的军事、战略及政治困境。Russia's military progress has been on public display in two vital world regions:俄罗斯的军事进步在国际上颇为重要的两个地区得到了公开展示：the Middle East (where it has proved remarkably effective at defeating the Syrian regime's internal enemies) and, crucially, in Ukraine.一个是中东（事实表明，在击败叙利亚政权的内部敌人方面，俄罗斯表现颇为优秀），另一个，也是最为关键的一个，便是乌克兰。In the RAND report's words, when Russian forces invaded Crimea in 2014, "few were surprised by the annexation,"用兰德报告的话说，2014年俄罗斯军队入侵克里米亚时，“鲜有人对这一吞并之举感到意外，”but "many were surprised by the performance of the Russian armed forces."但“俄罗斯武装部队的表现却是很多人都没有想到的。”Indeed, they've also "made Western militaries pay increasing attention to the threat不仅如此，他们还“引起了西方军队that the Russian military would pose in any future conflict in Eastern Europe."对未来东欧发生任何冲突时俄罗斯军队对其构成的威胁的日益重视。”

译文由可可原创，仅供学习交流使用，未经许可请勿转载。