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Great decisions often come from great information, you need information to work with to make good decisions.
好的决定往往来自好的信息，你需要信息来帮助你做出好的决定。
So it's said that information is more important than knowledge; information is more important than money;
所以有人说信息比知识更重要；信息比钱更重要；
information is probably one of the most important elements that you can have in making your luck and being successful.
信息可能是你获得好运和取得成功的最重要的因素之一。
Often in decision-making people come to the decision with imperfect information, and there's a lot of uncertainty
在做决策的时候，人们往往是在信息不完善的情况下做出决定的，而且存在很多不确定性。
So the first thing a decision-maker does who's skilled when they're taking risk
所以决策者在冒险时所做的第一件事就是
is to find out more about the context of the decision they're making
找出更多关于他们所做决策的背景
and what sorts of result will give them the best outcome in that context.
以及在这种背景下，什么样的结果会是最好的结果。
What might work well in one context or what might have worked before might not work well now
在这种背景下能行的决策，或许并不适用于其他背景，
so having sensitivity to the current context of the environment
所以拥有对现在环境的敏感性
and the information that we relevant are really two of the key ingredients of making a good choice.
和相关的信息是做出好决策的必要元素之一。
There's no one be sensitive that what others are doing around you. So if you know nothing about the environment,
没有人会在意你周围的人在做什么。所以如果你对环境一无所知，
sometimes one of the best heuristics you can use is emulate what's successful.
有时候你可以使用的最好的启发方法之一就是模仿成功的东西。
The very worst that you'll do is probably mediocre relative to the field, it will almost never be catastrophic.
最坏的情况是，你可能在这个领域表现平平，这也没什么糟糕的。
However, if you really want to be ahead of the game, you need to go beyond imitating what successful people are doing,
但如果你真的想要在游戏中领先，你要做的不仅仅是模仿成功人士的做法，
you need to figure ways of being bold and taking things in a new direction that can capture people's attention,
你需要想出大胆的方法，把事情引向新的方向，吸引人们的注意力，
capture people's imagination and help people shift to that new reality that's emerging.
抓住人们的想象力并帮助人们转向正在出现的新现实。
The opportunities in the environments are constantly shifting
环境中的机会在不断变化
so we have to be constantly aware of how the environment is changing
所以我们必须时刻注意环境是如何变化，
and how that change is affecting people in the environment.
以及这种变化如何影响环境中的人们。
Amongst experts, one of the biggest mistakes we sometimes see is the fallacy of excessive expertise.
在专家中，我们有时看到的最大错误之一是过度专业的谬论。
Sometimes it was a shift in the environment in the environment changes,
有时是环境的转变，环境的变化，
the knowledge that worked before will won't necessarily work as well anymore.
之前有效的知识不一定会同样有效。
So the people who are best at decision making are the best at moving forward and innovating or those who are humble,
所以最擅长做决定的人是最擅长前进和创新的人或者那些谦虚的人，
those who are able to see that what worked in the past might not necessarily work in the future
那些能够看到过去成功的事情在未来不一定成功的人
or where their information might not be sufficient to solve the type of problem that they're currently trying to address.
或者能够看清他们的信息可能不足以解决当前问题的人。
Great decisions in some ways are always evolving.
好的决定总在不断演化。
You make a choice and then it's critical to follow up that choice up with another choice, that's the right choice and so on.
做了一个选择并且接着做另一个选择是很重要的，这是正确的选择，等等。
So a great choice is in a single point in time
一个好的选择存在于一个时间点上，
but a great choice is a commitment to take a path in a series of decisions along that path to keep things going in the right direction
但一个好的选择是承诺沿着这条路做出一系列决定，让事情朝着正确的方向发展。
