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Listen, it's hard to maintain social distancing anywhere, but especially on an airplane.
听我说，无论在哪儿保持社交距离都很难，尤其是在飞机上。
Just thinking about it freaks me out.
光想想我都觉得上头。
Recently United Airlines tried to implement distancing
最近，美联航就试图推出他们的隔离措施，
by announcing that they are "automatically blocking middle seats to give passengers enough space on board."
他们宣布“自动锁定中间座位，为乘客提供足够的乘坐空间”。
But on May 9th a passenger on board a United flight to San Francisco from Newark
然而，5月9日，一名乘坐美联航航班从纽瓦克飞往旧金山的乘客在推特上发了这样一张照片，
tweeted out this picture in which middle seats are clearly occupied.
照片上的中间座显然是有人的。
The tweet sparked predictable backlash and prompted demands to leave seats empty on airplanes.
这条推文引起了网友们的强烈反应，倒也在意料之中，大家纷纷要求空出飞机上的中间座。
But as the number of daily travelers slowly picks up again after the unprecedented drop in March,
问题是，自从今年三月乘飞机出行的旅客数量出现了前所未有的下滑，如今，这一数量又开始缓步回升了，
airlines like United will find it harder and harder to leave seats empty on their flights.
美联航这样的航空公司会发现，保留空座会越来越难。
So all this debate over the middle seat makes me wonder:
中间座引发的这些争论不禁让我有了个疑问：
How far can an infectious disease actually spread on an airplane even if we block the middle seat?
假如我们留出中间的座位，具有传染性的疾病能在飞机上传播多远？
And if we do block that seat, are our ticket prices going to go up?
如果我们真的空出那个座位，机票的价格会不会上涨？
I'm Cleo Abram and this is Answered, by Vox.
我是Cleo Abram，欢迎收看Vox子栏目Answered。
This is a visualization of the inside of a Boeing 767.
这是模拟的一架波音767飞机内部的图像。
It shows how a single cough can spread throughout a plane between air filtration cycles.
图像显示，感染者的一次咳嗽通过机舱内的空气过滤循环传遍整个机舱。
"When I cough like this, you know, it definitely generates a lot of droplets."
“我这样咳嗽的时候，肯定会产生很多的飞沫。”
That's Professor Yan Chen.
这位是严辰教授。
He helped create this animation to study the ways infectious diseases in cough droplets can spread to other passengers.
他帮助制作的这个动画是用来研究咳嗽飞沫携带的传染病是如何传播给其他乘客的。
Due to the airflow design in most commercial planes,
考虑到大多数商用飞机的气流设计，
those cough droplets are first carried upwards and then travel sideways through the cabin.
这些咳嗽飞沫首先会传播上感染者上方，然后横向传播到机舱的其他位置。
"A longitudinal air flow, which means it's between rows, is minimal,
“纵向的气流设计就意味着不同排之间的传播几率是最小的，
and therefore is much more dangerous to get the those droplets
所以，（和感染者）坐在同排的人接触到那些飞沫的危险性
if you sit in the same row rather than in a different row."
要比坐在不同排的人高得多。”
But the model does not completely rule out transmission to people in different rows.
不过，该模型也没有完全排除病毒跨排传播的可能性。
In this simulation, all these people around the passenger are at risk.
在这个模拟情形下，感染乘客周围的所有人都是存在感染风险的。
In fact, those airborne cough droplets can move even farther down the cabin if another passenger walks by the individual that's coughing.
事实上，如果有乘客从咳嗽的那个感染者身旁经过的话，空气携带的咳嗽飞沫是会传播到机舱更远的地方的。
This second simulation shows how that can happen.
这第二个模拟图就展示了那种传播具体是如何发生的。
Air movement created by the walker can carry the droplet down the aisle to a completely different part of the plane.
走动的那名乘客带动的气流能让飞沫传播到距离感染者很远的地方。
"When you walk around, there's a possibility to get the disease,
“你四处走动的话，就有可能感染，
or you might not get it but you might bring it to your fellow passengers."
也有可能你没有感染，但你把它传播给了其他乘客。”
And to make matters worse, cough droplets can land on all the surfaces we touch.
更糟糕的是，咳嗽的飞沫可能落到我们接触的所有表面上。
"Those droplets didn't go to you directly.
“这些飞沫没有直接传播给你。
Properly just go to the tray table, armrest, even head rest, or the seat back in front of me."
可能只是落在了我面前的小桌板上，扶手上，座椅靠背上，甚至是前排乘客的座椅靠背上。”
But despite all these models,
然而，尽管有了这些模型，
Dr. Chen says it remains hard for scientists to predict exactly how a virus would spread on a plane
陈博士表示，科学家们依然很难准确预测病毒究竟会在机舱内如何传播，
or whether leaving a middle seat empty would actually help protect us.
也很难断定空出中间的座位是否真的有用。
He uses this reconstruction of a Boeing 737 flight from Hong Kong to Beijing to illustrate his point.
为了说明这一点，他用模拟的这个从香港飞往北京的波音737航班举了个例子。
On March 15th 2003, a man seated in 14E was carrying the SARS virus.
2003年3月15日，坐在这架航班14E座位的一位先生感染了非典病毒。
During the flight 22 other passengers and crew became infected.
飞行过程中，有22名乘客加机组人员被他感染。
While data on this flight is incomplete, at least five people are known to have died.
虽然有关这架航班的数据不是很全，但已知最后至少有5人不治身亡。
"So majority of them just sat within these three rows before and three rows behind,
“从图上可以看出，感染者主要是位于他前后三排的乘客，
but you definitely see some of those who sat pretty far away.
但我们也明确看到有一部分感染者离他是非常远的。
There's two persons seated seven rows in front of this infected person on the other side who were also getting infected."
有两名乘客和他中间隔了整整六排，还是在他的斜对面，他们也被感染了。”
Dr. Chen says this flight has been widely studied,
陈博士表示，这个航班已经被反复研究了很多次，
but epidemiologists still struggle to explain exactly how the virus spread so far through the length of the cabin.
但流行病学家们依然很难解释病毒是如何在机舱内传播了那么远的距离的。
"So I cannot guarantee that our animation is a one hundred percent scientifically proven result."
所以，我也不能保证，我们的动画模拟的结果就百分百正确。”
What does your simulation tell us about the effectiveness of blocking middle seats to passengers?
那关于空出中间座位到底管不管用，你们的这个模拟工具有什么看法吗？
"By leaving the middle seat open, you will have a little bit more social distancing.
“空出中间的座位，乘客之间就有了更大的空间。
But if you look at our animation isn't not very helpful."
但如果你看了我们的动画，你就会发现这么做其实作用不大。”
So even if middle seats were open in this simulation,
也就是说，即便把这个模拟情景里的中间座位空出来，
it wouldn't do much to stop cough droplets from reaching you.
也不能对阻止飞沫传播到你身上起到多大作用。
Still, according to Dr. Chen, an open middle seat could be helpful if paired with other precautions.
不过，陈博士表示，配合其他预防措施的话，空出中间座位也还是能起到一定作用的。
"So if I were a passenger and the airline can guarantee that the middle seat is open,
“如果我是一名乘客，航空公司可以保证中间座位是空的的话，
I don't think I have a problem to go there with my surgical mask."
那我觉得只要带着医用口罩去坐飞机，问题其实不会很大。”
"Surgical masks can reduce the distance cough droplets travel from around six feet to more like two feet,
“医用口罩能够将咳嗽飞沫传播的距离从6英尺左右降低到2英尺左右，
and combined with an empty middle seat they might actually reduce risk.
加上中间座位又是空的，感染的风险就会更小。
Dr. Chen says an open middle seat could help in another really important way:
陈博士表示，空出中间座位能在另一个非常重要的方面发挥作用：
Limiting the total number of people on any given flight.
控制航班，无论是什么航班上的总人数。
But that could present a different problem when it comes to how much our flights will cost.
问题是，这样一来，我们又会面临另一个有关机票费用的问题。
"The airline industry operates on very thin margins."
“航空行业的利润是非常低的。”
John Grant is an analyst at OAG, an organization that tracks global flight data.
这位是约翰·格兰特，他是跟踪全球飞行数据的组织OAG的一名分析师。
"Probably only 20 airlines in the world consistently make a profit."
“全世界能够持续盈利的航空公司可能只有20家。”
"Whoah!" "Yeah."
“啊……”“真的”
"I did not realize that!"
“我都没发现！”
"If you're leaving every middle seat empty that's 30% of your capacity that you're not selling."
“如果你把所有的中间座都空出来，就等于你有30%的票没卖出去。”
According to Grant, that could mean a whopping 52% increase in average ticket price for passengers.
根据格兰特的计算，这就意味着机票价格可能要上涨足足52%。
"Will the person sitting in New York today who wants to fly to Florida next week be prepared to pay 52 percent more?"
“今天还坐在纽约，计划下周飞往佛罗里达的人准备好多付52%的钱了吗？”
"No! Honestly, no."
“没有！老实说，肯定没有啊。”
"No. And particularly now, after nine weeks of lockdown, less cash at home etc etc."
“没有吧。尤其是现在，大家已经隔离9周了，家里的现金肯定已经变少了之类之类的。”
Listen, the concern about the middle seat makes sense.
听我说，对中间座的担忧是有道理的。
Until we have a vaccine for the coronavirus, flying is gonna be kind of scary.
除非我们有新冠疫苗了，否则这个时候去坐飞机都是会……有点恐怖的。
"But while we can take precautions, like wearing a mask, or leaving an empty middle seat,
“不过，虽然我们也能采取一些预防措施，比如戴口罩，空出中间的座位，
in the end we might have to decide how much we're willing to pay for a slight bump in safety."
但说到底，可能还是要看我们到底愿意为多一点点的安全保障付出多少。”
