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AI is likely to be a profoundly transformative general purpose technology that changes virtually every aspect of society, the economy, politics, and the military.
人工智能很可能是一种深刻变革的通用技术，它几乎改变了社会、经济、政治和军事的各个方面。
And this is just the beginning. The issue doesn't come down to consciousness or "Will AI want to dominate the world or will it not?"
而这仅仅是个开始。 问题不在于意识，也不在于“ AI是否想要主宰世界”。
That's not the issue. The issue is: "Will AI be powerful and will it be able to generate wealth?"
那不是问题。 问题是：“人工智能会强大吗？未来它能产生财富吗？”
It's very likely that it will be able to do both.
很可能它两者都能做到。
And so just given that, the governance of AI is the most important issue facing the world today and especially in the coming decades.
鉴于此，人工智能的治理是当今以及未来几十年我们要面临的最重要的问题。
My name is Allan Dafoe, I am the director of the Center for the Governance of AI at the Future of Humanity Institute at University of Oxford.
我叫Allan Dafoe，我是牛津大学人类未来研究所AI治理中心的主任。
The core part of my research is to think about the governance problem with respect to AI.
我研究的核心部分是思考有关AI的治理问题。
So this is the problem of how the world can develop AI in a way that maximizes the benefits and minimizes the risks.
它是关于世界如何以最大化收益和最小化风险的方式开发人工智能的问题。
So why is it so important for us to govern artificial intelligence?
那么，为什么对我们来说管理人工智能非常重要呢？
Well, first, let's just consider how natural human intelligence has impacted the world on its own.
首先，我们来思考一下与生俱来的人类智力是如何影响了这个世界。
In many ways it's incredible how far we've gone with human intelligence.
在许多方面，我们通过人类智力取得了难以置信的成就。
This human brain, which had all sorts of energy constraints and physical constraints, has been able to build up this technological civilization, which has produced cellphones and buildings, education, penicillin, and flight.
具有各种能量约束和物理约束的人类大脑已经能够建立起这种技术文明，从而产生了手机、建筑、教育、青霉素和飞行器。
Virtually everything that we have to be thankful for is a product of human intelligence and human cooperation.
几乎让我们受益的所有东西都是人类智力和人类合作的产物。
With artificial intelligence, we can amplify that and eventually extend it beyond our imagination.
有了人工智能，我们可以把它放大无数倍，并最终超乎我们的想象。
And it's hard for us to know now what that will mean for the economy, for society, for the social impacts and the possibilities that it will bring.
现在我们很难知道这对经济和社会意味着什么，以及它将带来怎样的社会影响和可能性。
AI isn't the first technology that our society has had to grapple with how to govern.
人工智能并不是人类社会遇到的第一种需要小心应对的技术。
In fact, many technologies like cars, guns, radio, the internet are all subject to governance.
实际上，许多技术，例如汽车、枪支、无线电、互联网，都需要接受管理。
What sets AI apart is the kind of impact it can have on society and on every other technology it touches.
AI的不同之处在于，它能对社会以及与它相关的所有其他技术产生影响。
So if we govern AI well, there's likely to be substantial advances in medicine, transportation, helping to reduce global poverty and (it will) help us address climate change.
因此，如果我们对AI进行良好的管理，则医学、交通运输业可能会取得重大进步，这有助于减少全球贫困，并且（它将）帮助我们应对气候变化。
The problem is if we don't govern it well, it will also produce these negative externalities in society.
问题是，如果我们对它管理不善，它会在社会上产生一些负面的外部效应。
Social media may make us more lonely, self-driving cars may cause congestion, autonomous weapons could cause risks of flash escalations and war or other kinds of military instability.
社交媒体可能会让我们更加孤独，无人驾驶汽车可能会造成交通拥挤，自动化武器可能会导致局势迅速升温、战争或其他形式的军事动荡。
So the first layer is to address these unintended consequences of the advances in AI that are emerging.
因此，第一步是解决新兴的AI进步带来的这些意想不到的后果。
Then there's this bigger challenge facing the governance of AI, which is really the question of where do we want to go?
然后，AI治理面临着更大的挑战，那就是我们到底要去向何方？
The way we structure our governance of AI is crucial, possibly to the survival of our species.
我们构建AI治理的方式至关重要，这可能关系到人类的存亡。
When we consider how impactful this technology can be, any system that governs its use must be carefully constructed.
考虑到这项技术的影响力，我们必须严格构建控制AI使用的所有制度。
There are many examples where a society has stumbled into very harmful situations—World War I perhaps being one of the more illustrative ones—
在许多例子中，社会陷入了非常有害的境地。第一次世界大战也许是更具说明性的例子之一，
where no one leader really wanted to have this war but, nevertheless, they were bound by the structure of their system in a way that led them into this conflict.
没有领导人真正想发动这场战争，但尽管如此，他们仍然受制于其制度结构以致于陷入这场冲突。
So this is what I think we need to worry about.
所以我认为这才是我们需要担心的事情。
It's an incredibly hard problem, you don't want to make overly hard rules at the beginning because that can overly bind the future, right?
这个问题非常难，你并不想在一开始就制定极为严格的规则，这样会过度约束未来，对吧？
You want to allow the future to have their own freedom and also to improve the institutions when they have more information and are better educated.
你希望未来有更多自由的空间，并让它在拥有更多信息、受到更好教育的时候去改善这些体系。
So recently I've been reading up on constitutional design.
所以最近我一直在阅读宪法设计方面的信息。
I'm fascinated by this phenomenon of humans coming together and articulating what's the framework in which they want to live into the future.
我非常着迷于这种人类聚集在一起，表达理想未来的生活框架的现象。
So this is something I'm thinking about, because I think we're at a new constitutional moment to, as a collective,
这就是我正在思考的问题，我认为全人类正处在一个新的宪法制定时刻，
come to an understanding about what are the futures that we don't want and what are the futures that we do want.
去达成一个我们要想和不想要的未来是什么样的共识。
Humanity has this wonderful opportunity that we haven't had throughout history.
人类拥有我们从未有过的美好机遇。
That opportunity is the chance to decide what our future can be.
这次机遇是决定我们未来的机会。
If we overcome our sort of parochial differences and interests and recognize that we are at this rare moment in history, when humanity has enough commonality,
如果我们克服了狭隘的分歧和利益，并且认识到我们正处于历史上这难得的时刻，当人类具有足够的共通性时，
we have enough common vision that if we want we can build something together, a shared institution for the future.
我们就有了足够的共同愿景：只要我们愿意，就可以一起为未来建立一套共享体系。
