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Vaccine hesitancy produces a terrible toll. In Japan, a fall in the numbers of people taking the HPV vaccine in 2013 (owing to coverage of a cluster of adverse effects) is predicted to lead to 5,000 deaths from cervical cancer that could otherwise have been prevented. As well as exposing people to illness and death, vaccine reluctance and outright anti-vaccine propagandists prevent eradication of diseases.
“疫苗犹豫”会造成可怕的后果。在日本，2013年接种宫颈癌疫苗的人数下降(由于覆盖了一系列不良反应)，预计将导致5000人死于本可以避免的宫颈癌。不愿接种疫苗和公然反对接种疫苗的宣传者不仅使人们暴露在疾病和死亡面前，还阻碍了疾病的根除。
The WHO included on its 2019 list, with admirable foresight, a threat labelled "disease X". Effectively they left a blank space that "represents the need to prepare for an unknown pathogen that could cause a serious epidemic" – a blank space duly filled the following year by Sars-CoV-2, which (almost certainly) crossed from bats and started spreading between humans.
世界卫生组织以令人钦佩的远见，将一种名为“X疾病”的威胁列入了2019年的名单。实际上，他们留下了空白，“代表着需要为可能导致严重流行病的未知病原体做好准备”。第二年，Sars-CoV-2(非典)适时填补了这一空白，它(几乎可以肯定)从蝙蝠身上传播并开始在人类之间传播。
Actually, it was quite predictable that a serious disease would cross over from animals. Other examples include HIV, rabies, anthrax, Ebola, flu, Mers and Sars (both from the coronavirus family) and bubonic plague. All of these are zoonotic diseases that jumped from animals. A lesser-known zoonotic virus, Nipah, is of serious concern. It crossed from fruit bats to pigs to humans and was first picked up in the Malaysian village of Nipah in 1999. It has a shocking death rate of between 40% and 75% (compared with 3% for coronavirus).
事实上，可以预见的是，一种严重的疾病会从动物身上传染过来。其他例子包括艾滋病毒、狂犬病、炭疽热、埃博拉病毒、流感、中东呼吸综合征和非典(均来自冠状病毒家族)以及黑死病。这些都是从动物身上传播的人畜共患疾病。一种鲜为人知的人畜共患病毒尼帕引起了严重关注。它从果蝠身上传播到猪身上再传播到人身上，并于1999年在马来西亚的尼帕村首次被发现。它的死亡率令人震惊，在40%到75%之间(相比之下，冠状病毒的死亡率为3%)。
There is no treatment or vaccine, and if the virus mutated and became more easily transmitted between people – well, you can see the problem. We need an international institute for pandemic protection and response, perhaps working under the umbrella of the WHO.
目前没有治疗方法或者疫苗，如果病毒发生变异，变得更容易在人与人之间传播——嗯，你就能看到问题的严重性了。我们需要一个“国际大流行保护和应对机构”，或许可以在世卫组织的保护伞下开展工作。
In 2009, when the H1N1 swine flu pandemic threatened to take hold, the vaccines that were developed for it were snapped up by rich countries. Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, is an international body that subsidises the cost of vaccines so poorer countries can afford them, and this is something we should do for any coronavirus vaccine, if it is not done by the goodwill of world governments (and we can't rely on that). We should also support the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (Cepi), an organisation working on vaccines for many emerging diseases, including Covid-19. Cepi has an immediate need for $2bn to complete vaccine trials, but then more to ramp up manufacturing capacity to make sure there is enough vaccine for everyone who needs it.
2009年，当H1N1猪流感大流行威胁要爆发时，针对它开发的疫苗被富裕国家抢购一空。疫苗联盟Gavi是一个国际机构，它为疫苗的成本提供补贴，让较贫穷的国家能够负担得起。如果说世界各国政府拿不出善意，那么对于任何冠状病毒疫苗我们都应该这样做(我们不能依赖这一点)。我们还应该支持流行病防范创新联盟(Cepi)，这是一个致力于为包括新冠在内的许多新发疾病研制疫苗的组织。Cepi迫切需要20亿美元来完成疫苗试验，但还需要更多资金来提高生产能力以确保有足够的疫苗满足所有需要之人。
