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经济学家对优步的预测(上)

来源:可可英语 编辑:Daisy   可可英语APP下载 |  可可官方微信:ikekenet

Well, I think all understanding, including scientific understanding, starts with narratives that are related to what we observe.

我认为所有的理解,包括科学理解,都是从与我们观察到的东西开始的。

People look out on the heavens, and they're astonished.

人们眺望天际时会感到惊奇。

You'll see the beauty of the world around us and then become aware that a lot of that beauty is orderly.

会看到我们这个美丽的世界,会意识到美丽是有序的。

There's a huge amount of order in the universe.

宇宙中存在着大量的秩序。

That order is all driven by forces that are not visible.

这种秩序都是由不可见的力量驱动的。

For example, you'll see that in Adam Smith's first book, "The Theory of Moral Sentiments," he's concerned with, how come there's so much order among neighbors and neighborhoods?

例如,在亚当-斯密的第一本书《道德情操论》里,他描述道,邻居和邻里之间为什么会有这么多秩序?

And so he writes a whole book on that with a lot of really interesting propositions, and those propositions can be tested in the context of experiments.

因此,他就此写了一整本书,提出了很多非常有趣的命题,而这些命题可以在实验中得到检验。

And every enterprise is an experiment.

而每个企业都可以作为一个实验。

Uber and Lyft is a story about both buyers and sellers learn more and more about this new arrangement.

Uber和Lyft让买家和卖家对这种新形式越来越了解。

I'm Vernon Smith. I'm a professor at Chapman University.

我是弗农史密斯。我是查普曼大学的教授。

I do experiments for a living.

我以做各种实验为生。

Lot of our experiments are concerned with the design of new kinds of markets, moving away from government ownership of those industries to forms of organization that were based upon markets and prices.

我们的很多实验都与新型市场的设计有关,政府对这些行业的所有权转向基于市场和价格的组织形式。

I was a member of the Young People's Socialist League about age 15 or 16.

我大约在15或16岁时是社会主义青年联盟的成员。

I grew up in a socialist family.

我成长于一个社会主义家庭中。

I became aware that the American socialist dedication to First Amendment rights, somehow that didn't extend to the economic sphere.

我开始意识到,美国社会主义对第一修正案权利做出的贡献,但不知它为何没有延伸到经济领域。

Experimental economics came about because we had a device that we could learn from, and we could learn stuff that we didn't think anyone could know.

实验经济学的出现是因为我们有一个可以学习的模范,我们可以学到别人还不知道的东西。

My first experiment was a market experiment.

我的第一个实验是一个市场实验。

It was a class, and I had 22 people.

有一个班级,我有22名受试者。

I made 11 of 'em buyers and 11 of 'em sellers.

我让他们中的11个当买家,另外11个当卖家。

And I gave the 11 buyers each a value.

我给这11个买家每人一个值钱的东西。

And I said, "Okay, you're gonna trade something, and this is what it's worth to you.

我说,"好吧,你们要去和别人交易一些东西,这就是它对你们的价值。

I'll pay you the difference between that number I've written on your card and the price you pay for it from some seller in the room.

我写在你卡片上的数字和你从房间里的某个卖家那里买到的价格之间会存在差额,我会补给你这部分的价钱。

So you get the difference between the price you pay and this value."

所以你可以得到你支付的价格和这个价值之间的差额。"

And the sellers owned a unit, and it had a value to them.

而卖家拥有一件商品,这对他们也有价值。

And so it paid them to sell it if they could get more than that value to them.

因此,如果他们能得到比这个价值更多的东西,就会付钱卖掉它。

So it's like a cost. So what did I find?

所以这就像是成本。那我最后发现了什么?

I found that people traded, and then I had 'em do it again.

我发现人们进行交易,然后我让他们再进行交易。

In about three iterations, they found the equilibrium.

在大约三次反复试验中,他们找到了平衡点。

I couldn't believe it. It was astonishing.

我简直不敢相信。这非常令人惊讶。

重点单词   查看全部解释    
astonished [əs'tɔniʃt]

想一想再看

adj. 惊讶的 动词astonish的过去式和过去分词

 
related [ri'leitid]

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adj. 相关的,有亲属关系的

 
astonishing [əs'tɔniʃiŋ]

想一想再看

adj. 惊人的 动词astonish的现在分词

 
universe ['ju:nivə:s]

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n. 宇宙,万物,世界

联想记忆
concerned [kən'sə:nd]

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adj. 担忧的,关心的

 
equilibrium [.i:kwi'libriəm]

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n. 平衡,均衡

联想记忆
ownership ['əunəʃip]

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n. 所有权

 
observe [əb'zə:v]

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v. 观察,遵守,注意到
v. 评论,庆

联想记忆
dedication [.dedi'keiʃən]

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n. 奉献,献词,献堂礼

 
experimental [iks.peri'mentl]

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adj. 实验(性)的,试验(性)的

 

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