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Sometimes we are reminded that the greatest risk to us, is actually us.
有时我们会被提醒，我们面临的最大风险，实际上是我们自己。
If you go across any number of crises that come, in many cases, those risks were actually very predictable, not in exact time or form, but in the fact that they would arise.
如果你经历过一些危机，在许多情况下，这些危机实际上是非常可预测的，并不是说我们能知道它发生的确切时间或形式，而是它们一定会发生这个事实。
Before the 9/11 attacks that hit the World Trade Center in New York, all of the information necessary to stop the plot existed within the United States government.
在纽约世贸中心遭受9/11袭击之前，美国政府内部有所有阻止阴谋的必要信息。
With the 2008 Financial Crisis, many of the causes of that were both set in place by action inside Wall Street, but they were also recognizable.
在2008年的金融危机中，导致这种情况的许多原因都是由华尔街内部的行动确定的，但它们也是显而易见的。
Of course, COVID-19, we've seen pandemics regularly for centuries, and we have a great understanding of public health so we should have had the capacity to deal with it.
当然，新冠肺炎，几个世纪以来我们经常遇到大流行病，我们对公共卫生有很全面的理解，所以我们应该有能力应对它。
And so the question is: Why don't we get it right? Why do we drop the ball so often?
所以问题是：为什么我们不避免这一切呢？为什么我们经常犯错误呢？
I'm Stan McChrystal, and the most recent book that I've been a part of, I co-authored with Anna Butrico, is "Risk: A User's Guide."
我是斯坦·麦克里斯特尔，我和安娜·布特里科合著的最新一本书是《风险：用户指南》。
I've really come to have a different way of thinking about risk.
我真的开始用一种不同的方式来思考风险。
I now think about it almost like a mathematical equation: Threat times vulnerability equals risk.
现在我觉得它就像一个数学方程式：威胁乘以脆弱性等于风险。
There are many threats out there in the world.
世界上有很多威胁。
If we were able to do away with them, to drive them to zero, our risk would be zero; no matter how vulnerable we were because anything times zero is zero.
如果我们能够消灭它们，把它们清零，我们的风险就是零；无论我们多么脆弱，因为任何东西乘以零都是零。
But none of us live in that world.
但没有人生活在那样的世界里。
We just don't have control over threats like that.
我们根本无法控制那样的威胁。
So what do we have control over? Our vulnerabilities.
那我们能控制什么呢？我们的脆弱性。
Not complete control, but we have a lot of agency there.
不是完全控制，但我们有很多机构。
We can make ourselves stronger.
我们可以让自己变得更强大。
We can make ourselves more able to withstand different threats that can arise.
我们可以使自己更有能力抵御可能出现的各种威胁。
We are all blessed with a human immune system.
我们拥有人类免疫系统。
It detects threats to us, it assesses those threats, it responds to them, normally kills them, and then it learns from it.
它能探测到我们面临的威胁，评估这些威胁，对它们做出反应，通常会杀死它们，然后从中吸取教训。
I would argue that organizations and societies have the equivalent.
我觉得组织和社会也有同等的条件。
They've got a 'risk immune system,' factors that work together to allow us to detect threats, assess them, respond, and then learn in that process.
他们都有“风险免疫系统”，这些因素共同作用，让我们能够发现威胁、评估威胁、做出反应，然后在这个过程中学习。
And so, just as we have to keep our human immune system healthy, we have to build and keep healthy our risk immune system.
因此，就像我们必须保持人类免疫系统健康一样，我们必须建立并保持健康的风险免疫系统。
If we don't tend to our risk immune system, we essentially become vulnerable to anything.
如果我们不关注风险免疫系统，就会变得对任何东西都很脆弱。
No one ever died from HIV/Aids- they died because their immune system was weakened, and then some smaller disease killed them, which normally wouldn't.
从来没有人死于艾滋病毒/艾滋病--他们的死亡是因为他们的免疫系统被削弱了，然后一些很小的疾病杀死了他们，但正常情况下是不会出现这种情况的。
That can happen with any threat if you're not strong.
如果你不强大，任何威胁都可能是致命的。
I'm often asked, "What do I think the greatest risks in the world are, or what keeps you up at night?"
经常有人问我，“我认为世界上最大的风险是什么，或者什么会让你夜不能寐？”
In a geopolitical sense, of course, Vladimir Putin and Russia, but also the potential of conflict or competition between China and the United States; the rise of North Korea as a nuclear power.
当然，从地缘政治的意义上讲，普京和俄罗斯，但也包括中美之间潜在的冲突或竞争；朝鲜崛起为核大国。
And then, of course, much more broadly, we have things like climate change.
然后，当然，更广泛地说，还有气候变化这样的事情。
It's a slow moving crisis. It doesn't happen overnight.
这是一场缓慢发展的危机。它不会在一夜之间发生。
So sometimes we're lulled into thinking, "Well, we can get to it tomorrow."
所以有时候我们会想，“嗯，我们可以明天再解决它。”
Or, something like education in America.
或者，还有美国的教育之类的东西。
In my country, education is not as strong as it needs to be.
我们国家的教育并没有达到它应有的那样强大。
We don't produce enough qualified people for the kind of workforce we're gonna need in tomorrow's economy.
我们没有培养出足够的合格人才来满足未来经济中所需要的那种劳动力。
