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Nobody wants a global crisis, and least of all the Ukrainians, when we talk about this war.
当我们谈论这场战争时，没有人希望发生全球危机，尤其是乌克兰人。
We've discussed how devastating it has been, is, and will be for the Ukrainian population, 44 million people.
我们已经讨论了它对乌克兰4400万人口造成的毁灭性影响。
Every one of them with multiple stories of suffering and tragedy, every single one.
他们中的每一个人都遭遇了多个痛苦又悲剧的故事，每一个人。
And yet, we in the West have watched for decades as NATO has eroded to the point that Trump could call it "obsolete," Macron could call it "brain-dead."
然而，西方几十年来一直在观察北约的侵蚀程度，特朗普将之称为“过时”的地步，马克龙将之称为“脑死亡”。
We have watched as the Europeans have been unwilling to spend on national security to care about their own defense.
我们看着欧洲人一直不愿在国防和安全上花钱。
We have watched as the Americans have become more indifferent to the Transatlantic Alliance, and instead, the pivot to Asia.
我们眼睁睁地看着美国人对跨大西洋联盟变得越来越无动于衷，转而将重点转向亚洲。
China is going be the largest economy in the world likely by the end of this decade.
到本世纪末，中国可能会成为世界上最大的经济体。
They are in no hurry.
他们却并不着急。
The 21st century has had a geopolitical order that has been increasingly failed.
21世纪的地缘政治秩序日益失灵。
The leadership has been fractious, has not been trusted, has been polarized.
领导层一直难以驾驭，不受信任，两极分化。
And as much as administrations from Obama to Trump to Biden have tried to address that, they have failed, until Putin invaded Ukraine.
从奥巴马到特朗普再到拜登的政府都曾试图解决这个问题，但都以失败告终，直到普京入侵乌克兰。
And that decision of Putin to create a global crisis was precisely what was necessary to make NATO an institution that could be reformed and revived.
而普京制造全球危机的决定正好是让北约成为一个可以改革和复兴的机构的必需条件。
It was precisely what was necessary to bring the Finns and the Swedes into that organization— something they never would've done if it weren't for the invasions.
这正是让芬兰人和瑞典人加入北约所必需的--如果不是因为入侵，他们永远不会加入。
Precisely what was necessary to get the Germans to say, "We're gonna spend 2% of our GDP on defense going forward, and we're going to change the way we think about our polity, so that yes, we will play a role in international leadership to support the Ukrainians, something we wouldn't have done before."
它正好会让德国说“未来我们将把国内生产总值的2%用于国防，我们将改变我们对政治的看法，我们要在国际领导中发挥作用，支持乌克兰人，这是我们以前不会做的。”
The Poles, who themselves were saying, "Well, we're not so sure about this European Union."
以前，波兰人会说：“我们对欧盟的情况不是很确定。”
Now they're hosting 3 million Ukrainian refugees, they think Europe needs to be stronger, they need common defense.
但现在，他们收容了300万乌克兰难民，他们认为欧洲需要变得更强大，他们需要共同防御。
This is precisely the "kick in the ass" that the West required to pay attention to the fact that its institutions were becoming less relevant and less effective for decades.
这正是西方需要注意到的一个事实，即几十年来，西方的机构变得越来越没有价值，效率也越来越低。
And what we learn in an environment of what I call a 'geopolitical recession'— in a world where institutions are increasingly misaligned with the balance of power, and no one's doing anything about it— is that you require a crisis to create the seeds for a new global order.
在我所说的“地缘政治衰退”的环境中，在一个制度与权力越来越不平衡，却没有人采取任何行动的世界中，我们学到的是，你需要一场危机，才能为新的全球秩序孕育种子。
And from these crises, a new global order will emerge.
从这些危机中，一个新的全球秩序将会出现。
