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It's very easy to imagine how things go wrong.
想象事情会如何出错很容易。
It's much harder to imagine how things go right than to say, oh, you could have a pandemic or a war or a terrorist act.
比起说一句“哦，可能会有疫情，战争，或者恐怖主义行动”，想象事情如何才能不出错要难得多。
That's easy to come up with.
疫情和战争很容易就能想到。
It's a big act of imagination, constructing a believable scenario of how all these forces come together to create a better future.
这需要巨大的想象力，构建出一个可信的场景，说明这些力量是如何汇聚在一起，创造出更美好的未来的。
When I meet someone new and they ask, what does a futurist do?
新认识别人时，他们会问，一个未来主义者会做什么？
I basically say, I help study the future so people today can make better decisions.
我一般会说，我研究未来，以便今天的人们能做出更好的决定。
I'm an explorer of the future trying to imagine the possibilities that lay ahead.
我是一个探索未来的探险家，试图想象未来存在的可能性。
In fact, Steven Spielberg asked me, to bring together a team to create all the details of the future that you saw in the film "Minority Report."
事实上，史蒂文·斯皮尔伯格让我组建一个团队，创造大家在电影《少数派报告》中看到的那种未来的所有细节。
Advertisements that knew who you were, doors that recognized you, hydrogen-powered vehicles, electric cars.
知道你是谁的广告，可以识别出你的门，氢动力汽车，电动汽车。
It is not the goal to get everything right.
我们的目标不是把一切都做好。
It's almost impossible but you test your decisions against multiple scenarios, so you make sure you don't get it wrong in the scenarios that actually occur.
这并不现实，但你可以在多个场景中测试自己的决策，确保这种情况真的发生时，我们不会出错。
I'm Peter Schwartz, the Chief Future Officer of Salesforce, and Head of Strategic Planning.
我是彼得·施瓦茨，Salesforce的首席未来官兼战略规划负责人。
I've written a book called the "Art of the Longview" and I've been studying the future for the last 50 years.
我写了一本名为《朗维尤的艺术》的书，这50年来，我一直在研究未来。
I was born in a refugee camp in 1946, came to the United States as an immigrant in 1951, but fell in love immediately with science, my father was an engineer, and with technology.
1946年我出生在一个难民营，1951年以移民身份来到美国，但很快就爱上了科学和技术，我的父亲是一名工程师。
What I knew was that I wanted a better world.
我只知道我想要一个更加美好的世界。
I'd studied politics and everything like that and I still didn't understand what a better future was.
我学过政治等等之类的知识，但我仍然不明白什么是更美好的未来。
The way in which my career evolved was I ended up at a place called Stanford Research Institute.
我的职业发展的最终结果是，我在一个叫做斯坦福研究所的地方工作。
It was the early days that became Silicon Valley.
那正是硅谷形成的早期。
It's where technology was accelerating.
那里是技术加速发展的地方。
I was one of the first thousand people online.
我是第一批上千人中的一员。
It was the era when LSD was still being used as an exploratory tool.
那个时代还在用LSD当探索工具。
So everything around me was the future being born.
所以我周围的一切都是在孕育未来。
And we were part of a group that was studying where all this technology might go, and what the consequences would be for the world.
我们所在的小组研究的是这种技术的前景，以及它会给世界带来什么样的后果。
So at the end of 1981 I left SRI and joined Royal Dutch Shell in London.
1981年底，我离开了斯坦福研究所，加入了伦敦的荷兰皇家壳牌公司。
And there, I had the opportunity to apply these tools to real business decisions, helping one of the biggest companies in the world navigate uncertainty.
在那里，我有机会将这些工具应用于实际的商业决策，帮助世界上最大的公司之一应对不确定性。
And shortly thereafter, I launched a company with a group of friends called Global Business Network.
在那之后不久，我和一群朋友创办了一家名为全球商业网络的公司。
And it was basically to create a membership organization of companies and remarkable thinkers to think together about the possible scenarios for the future.
它其实就是一个囊括了公司和杰出的思想家的组织，共同思考未来可能出现的情景。
What I realized was that the right question was not what did I think about the future, but what did everybody else think about the future?
我意识到，正确的提问不是我对未来有什么看法，而是其他人对未来有什么看法？
And that's when I was involved in helping to create something that is known as 'Scenario planning.'
就在那时，我参与了帮助创建一种被称为“情景规划”的东西。
And so my question shifted to what are the tools that people need to think more intelligently and thoughtfully about the future?
因此，我的问题变成了人们需要哪些工具来更聪明、更深思熟虑地思考未来？
To do scenario planning you have to have a number of skills.
要做场景规划，你必须具备一些技能。
First of all, when I hire, I'm looking for something I call 'Ruthless curiosity.'
首先，雇人时，我寻找的是一种我称之为“无情的好奇心”的东西。
One of the interesting stories that has always fascinated me, that kind of set the stage for how I think about the future and the challenge of making decisions, was the map of California.
其中一个有趣的故事一直让我着迷，它为我如何思考未来和做出决定的挑战奠定了基础，那就是加州地图。
If you look at maps of California beginning around the year 1605, and going for almost a century and a half, you'll find that it shows California as an island.
如果你看一下加州的地图，大约从1605年开始，从那之后的近一个半世纪，你会发现加州地图显示它是一座岛屿。
What actually happened was that when the Spanish were exploring the western side of North America, they sailed up into the Gulf of Baja, and then later all the way up the coast to the Puget sound and they thought these must be connected.
事实是，当西班牙人探索北美西部时，他们航行到巴哈湾，然后一直沿着海岸到达普吉特海湾，他们认为它们肯定是相连的。
Now the truth is this would only be a historical curiosity were it not for the problem of the missionaries.
但其实，要不是传教士，这只会成为历史上的奇闻异事。
Because the missionaries actually use these maps and they would arrive at Monterey Bay.
因为传教士用了这些地图，他们想到达蒙特利湾。
They had to cross California, and take their boats over the Sierra Nevada mountains and down to the beach on the other side.
他们不得不穿过加利福尼亚州，带着船越过内华达山脉，抵达另一边的海滩。
And that beach unfortunately went on and on and on, until they realized they were in the middle of the deserts of Nevada, and there was no sea of California.
不幸的是，那些海滩绵延不绝，直到他们意识到自己身处于内华达州的沙漠中央，那里并没有加利福尼亚州的海。
And the weird thing is they actually wrote back to the map makers in Spain and said, "Hey, listen your bloody map is wrong."
神奇的是，他们居然给西班牙的地图制作者写信说：“嘿，听着，你那该死的地图是错的。”
And the mapmakers wrote back and said, "No, no, no you are in the wrong place."
制图员回信说：“不不不，是你们去错地方了。
The map is right."
地图是没问题的。”
Now, many people who work in large organizations understand that logic very well.
现在，许多在大型组织工作的人非常理解这一逻辑。
If you get your facts wrong, you get your map wrong.
如果你搞错了事实，你就会搞错地图。
If you get your map wrong, you do the wrong thing.
如果你的地图错了，那你就会做出错误的事。
Good scenario planners are desperate for data and information.
优秀的场景规划者迫切需要数据和信息。
They read widely, they read about science.
他们博览群书，他们阅读关于科学的知识。
They read about economics.
他们阅读有关经济学的书籍。
They read about politics.
他们阅读有关政治的书籍。
They read about the environment.
他们阅读有关环境的知识。
So they're data junkies, but you also need to bring a lot of imagination, be able to break the boundaries of those trends, because trends change direction.
所以他们是数据狂人，但他们也需要有丰富的想象力，能够打破这些趋势的界限，因为趋势会改变方向。
