评论
打印
One of the early examples of, how shall I say, bad decision making that shows why you need good scenario planning was a crucial decision that IBM made in 1981 about whether to go in the business of making a new product, the personal computer.
怎么说呢，决策失误证明了良好的情景规划的重要性，其中一个早期的例子是IBM在1981年做出的一个关键决定，即是否拓展制造新产品--个人电脑的业务。
And they said, "Well, look, we need to forecast demand.
他们说：“注意，我们要预测需求。
"Is there a really big demand for this product?
“这款产品的需求真的很大吗？
"Is this going to be important?"
它会变得很重要吗？
And the forecast showed that it would peak at about 200,000 units and then decline pretty close to zero within a couple of years.
预测显示，销量将达到约20万台的峰值，然后在几年内几乎下降到零。
So this was not a very viable product.
因此，这并不是一个非常可行的产品。
So we'll buy the chips from Intel, we'll get the operating system from Bill Gates, and we'll put it in a box and we'll call it an IBM PC.
所以，我们要从英特尔购买芯片，从比尔·盖茨那里获得操作系统，然后把它们组装在一个盒子里，称之为IBM PC。
That was their idea.
这是他们当时的想法。
And they thought, this will last two or three years and it'll kill off Apple.
他们认为，这会持续两三年，它将扼杀苹果。
Unfortunately, they were a little wrong.
不幸的是，他们搞错了一点。
It wasn't 240,000 units, it was 25,000,000.
峰值销量不是24万台，而是2500万台。
It was that failure of imagination that pointed to the need for scenarios.
正是这种想象力的失败表明了情景的必要性。
They needed to imagine what people could actually do when they had a bit of computing power in their hands.
他们需要想象，当人们手中掌握一点计算能力时，他们实际上可以做什么。
So you have to have the trends, but then you also have to see the imagination about how it can change direction.
因此，你必须了解趋势，还必须看到它会如何改变方向。
And part of the way you do that an important ingredient is the ability to collaborate and learn from others.
要做到这一点，一个重要的因素是合作并向他人学习的能力。
'Cause you almost always do this with other people and work together.
因为你总在和其他人合作这样做。
And I'll give you a concrete example.
来举个具体的例子。
One of the earliest projects that Global Business Network did was for AT&T, on the future of the information industry.
Global Business Network最早的项目之一是为美国电话电报公司(AT&T)做关于信息产业未来的项目。
And we brought in a number of interesting, outside people.
我们还引进了一些有趣的外部人士。
One of those was Peter Gabriel, the British rockstar.
英国摇滚明星彼得·加布里尔就是其中之一。
He brilliantly used technology to make his music.
他巧妙地利用了技术来制作他的音乐。
And one of the AT&T executives said, "Peter, look they're just starting to do digital CDs, "which means you can get perfect copies of your music.
AT&T的一位高管说：“彼得，看，他们才刚刚开始制作数字CD。”这意味着人们可以完美复制你的音乐。
"And now we're gonna have lots of piracy around the world."
这样世界各地都会出现大量的盗版行为。
And he said, "Look, I can't stop it.
他说：“听着，我不能停下来。”
"I know they're gonna do that.
我知道他们会盗版。
"So what I'm gonna do is treat that pirate CD "as free advertising.
所以我要把那些盗版CD当作免费广告。
"And I'm gonna follow it with a concert.
然后我会举办一场演唱会。
"I'll make my money on the concerts, not the CDs."
“我要靠演唱会赚钱，而不是靠CD赚钱。
And that became the model in the music industry within about five years.
在大约五年的时间里，这就成为了音乐行业的模式。
Peter saw that before everybody else 'cause he understood the implications of the technology and how to compete with this rather dramatic change.
彼得比其他人更早地看到了这一点，因为他知道这项技术的含义，以及如何与这一相当戏剧性的变化竞争。
And so can you have a thoughtful dialogue and learn and adapt your thinking from other people?
因此，你能进行一次深思熟虑的对话，并从其他人那里学习和调整你的想法吗？
So are you curious and gather lots of information?
你是否很好奇，并收集了很多信息呢？
Are you imaginative? And are you collaborative?
你的想象力丰富吗？你愿意合作吗？
If you have those three skills then you're gonna be a pretty good scenario planner.
如果你具备这三项技能，那么你将会是一个很好的场景规划师。
I think fear of the future is one of the worst problems that we have today.
我认为对未来的恐惧是我们今天面临的最严重的问题之一。
We live so much better today than any time in human history.
人类如今的生活比历史上任何时候都要好得多。
Yes, there are ups and downs.
没错，是有一些跌宕起伏。
There'll be setbacks, there'll be wars and panics, and pandemics and so on.
会有挫折，会有战争和恐慌，会有流行病等等。
That will happen.
这些难以避免。
But the great arc of human progress and the gain of prosperity and a better life for all, that will continue.
但人类进步的伟大弧线，以及所有人获得繁荣和更美好生活的努力，将继续下去。
I like to think about the next 50 years, 100 years, even a thousand years or more.
我喜欢想象下一个50年，100年，甚至一千年甚至更久。
What happens in the development of human evolution, of human societies?
在人类进化和人类社会的发展中发生了什么？
Will we be able, for example, to build star drives that allow us to explore the stars as in "Star Trek."
例如，我们是否能够建造星际驱动器，让我们像《星际迷航》中那样去探索恒星。
Could we reinvent physics so that we can go faster than the speed of light?
我们能否重塑物理学，让人类的速度超过光速？
So for me, the interesting questions are based on an understanding of history on the one hand, and on the possibilities created by science.
所以对我来说，这些有趣的问题一方面是基于对历史的理解，另一方面是基于科学创造的可能性。
And these two combine together to give me a kind of long arc of human history, from the last few hundred years to the next few hundred years.
这两者结合在一起，形成了一种人类历史的漫长弧线，从过去的几百年到未来的几百年。
I think the really big thing is gonna be genetic engineering.
我认为真正重要的事情将是基因工程。
And what we're gonna start doing is getting rid of genetic diseases, for example, sickle cell anemia, diabetes, all these things that have genetic roots, new forms of cancer treatment.
我们要开始做的是消除遗传性疾病，例如，镰状细胞性贫血、糖尿病，所有这些都有基因根源，新的癌症治疗形式。
But beyond that, which I'm excited about, is improving people, smarter, stronger, longer lives.
但除此之外，让我兴奋的是改良人们，使他们变得更聪明、更强壮、更长寿。
I believe people being born today will have the option of living many centuries, and that will obviously change life rather fundamentally.
我相信今天出生的人将可以选择活很多个世纪，这显然会从根本上改变生活。
So if you have a young child today, make sure you tell them to choose their spouse wisely because a couple hundred years with the same person, I love my wife, but I'm not sure about centuries.
所以，如果你的孩子还小，一定要告诉他们明智地选择自己的配偶，因为几百年都要和同一个人生活在一起，我爱我的妻子，但我也不确定能否和她生活几个世纪。
