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All right. So now let's move on to cryptocurrency.
好，我们来聊聊加密货币。
You need to drink water or anything before we switch topics?
换话题之前，您需要喝口水之类的吗？
Let's try crypto without water- but we'll see.
我们试试不喝水直接聊加密货币吧--一会儿再看。
'Crypto.' 'Crypto.' 'Crypto.' 'Cryptocurrency becomes more popular, we're starting to see signs that it could become part of our financial future.'
‘加密货币’‘加密货币’‘加密货币’‘加密货币越来越受欢迎，有迹象表明它可能成为我们未来金融的一部分。’
Cryptocurrency is a truly new idea, and it's rare that we have truly, fundamentally new ideas.
加密货币是个很新的概念，我们产生一些真正基础的观念并不常见。
Think of Bitcoin as a kind of recordkeeping system, and you pay people in Bitcoin to validate the records, and you move on to the next day and every day, every moment, you have a new set of records- and this process is self-enforcing.
把比特币想象成一种记录保存系统，你用比特币付钱给人来验证记录，然后到第二天，每一天，每一刻，都会有新的记录——这个过程是自我执行的。
It cannot easily be overruled by an outside authority or central authority.
它不容易被外部权威或中央权威推翻。
So it's like you have, at the same time, potentially a new kind of money, a new kind of investment asset, and also, actually, a new kind of computer.
就好比你同时拥有了一种潜在的新型货币，一种新型的投资资产，实际上，还有一种新型的计算机。
So when I talk to people who are deeply into crypto, I often feel quite skeptical.
因此，当我与那些深入研究加密货币的人交谈时，经常会产生严重的怀疑。
They have such bold, grand plans, and I'm not convinced they've thought through how to carry it all out.
他们的计划过于大胆、宏伟，我不相信他们已经考虑好如何实施这些计划。
At the same time, I know many people who dismiss crypto altogether.
与此同时，我知道很多人对加密货币完全不屑一顾。
They think it's a scam or a bubble or a fraud.
他们觉得这是一场骗局或是泡沫。
And when I talk to them, I feel quite bullish about crypto.
跟他们交谈的时候，我又会对加密货币很乐观。
I see a lot of potential in the ideas, but I don't think we know yet how useful crypto will be.
我在这些想法中看到了很多潜力，我觉得我们还不知道加密货币会有多大的用处。
Here are some reasons why the crypto-skeptics are skeptical: People use crypto to pay off ransoms.
以下是一些人怀疑加密货币的原因：人们使用加密货币来支付赎金。
Let's say hackers will go into the medical records of a hospital, pull out or lock or freeze that information, and they won't give it back until they're paid off in crypto.
我们假设黑客侵入医院的医疗记录，取出、锁定或冻结这些信息，除非用加密货币支付赎金，否则他们不归还这些信息。
You can't ever get your money back.
你连自己的钱都取不出来。
It's an irreversible transaction done on the blockchain.
这是在区块链上进行的不可逆交易。
That's the end of it. Crypto itself, in most of its current forms, it consumes a lot of energy.
就这样。在目前的大多数形式中，加密货币会消耗很多能量。
You have computers racing to make calculations to crack different kindsof cryptographic problems.
你让计算机竞相计算，以破解不同类型的密码问题。
And those computers use so much energy that it damages the environment through carbon emissions in a way that we understand pretty well now.
这些电脑消耗了大量的能源，通过碳排放来破坏环境，这一点现在已经很清楚了。
But maybe the biggest reason to be crypto-skeptical is simply that a lot of the promised benefits haven't happened yet.
但人们对加密货币持怀疑态度的最大原因可能只是，许多承诺的好处还没有兑现。
"Well, it's gonna make banking cheaper." "It's gonna make finance cheaper."
“它能让银行业更便宜。”“它能让金融更便宜。”
"It's gonna make lending cheaper."
“它能让借贷更便宜。”
Maybe those dreams are just impossible, or impossible anytime soon.
也许这些想法根本不可能，或者说近期不可能。
And if people are skeptical about the promised benefits of crypto, they have some good reasons to be skeptical.
如果人们怀疑加密货币的好处，那他们完全有理由对加密货币持怀疑态度。
Here's a way to think about 'the bullish case' for crypto: Imagine that the internet becomes more and more its own economy with its own series of rules, and that economy is a global one.
有一种方式来思考加密货币的“看涨理由”：想象一下，互联网越来越成为自己的经济体，拥有自己的一系列规则，而且这个经济体是全球性的。
It will need its own systems of recordkeeping, its own systems of property rights, its own way of consummating transactions.
它需要自己的记录系统，自己的产权系统，自己完成交易的方式。
We'll need a new institution to do all those things, and crypto is actually the best bet that we have.
这些事情需要一个新的机构来完成，而加密货币实际上是我们拥有的最佳选择。
If that occurs, and many people think it will, it probably would be possible for me, say, to take part of my checking account and just by sending a single message, lend some of it out to say, farmers in Kenya.
如果这种情况发生了（很多人都认为会发生），我也许就能拿出自己的一部分支票账户，通过发送一条信息，把一部分借给肯尼亚的农民。
The world would be more global. I would be better off. They would be better off.
世界会变得更加全球化。我会过得更好。他们会过得更好。
There'd be this new system, some call it the 'Metaverse,' others just call it the 'expanded internet,' where we would own more things on the internet, have these secure property rights validated by the blockchain, have new investment assets, and moving resources around the world would be much easier, cheaper.
会有一个新的系统，有人称之为“元宇宙”，也有人称之为“扩展的互联网”，我们将在互联网上拥有更多东西，有这些区块链验证的安全产权，有新的投资资产，在世界各地转移资源也会更容易、更便宜。
That is speculative, but it is not what I would call "crazy speculative."
这是一种猜测，但不是我所说的“疯狂的猜测”。
It's a possibility, and we're going to see if that's what's going to happen.
它是一种可能性，我们要看看会不会发生这种情况。
