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外星人在哪里?(上)

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Enrico Fermi is one of the great physicists, legendary Italian physicists, who laid many of the foundations of modern 20th-century physics.

恩里科·费米是伟大的物理学家之一,是一位传奇的意大利物理学家,他为20世纪的现代物理学奠定了许多基础。

The Fermi Paradox is probably the thing he spent least time on, actually.

其实,费米悖论可能是他花了最少时间就提出来的理论。

It's almost one throwaway remark.

它就像是随口一说的一句话。

The question is: "Where are they?" By "they," I mean aliens.

问题是:他们在哪里?这里的“他们”指的是外星人。

We know that we live in a big old galaxy, in a big old Universe.

我们知道人类生活在一个古老又庞大的星系中,一个古老又浩瀚的宇宙中。

The Milky Way galaxy we now know has something like 400 billion suns, and we now know that most of those suns have planetary systems around them.

现在我们知道银河系里有大约4千亿颗恒星,而且我们知道大多数恒星周围都有自己的行星系。

And so there's a lot of real estate, and there's been plenty of time for civilizations to develop.

所以是存在着很多地面的,也有大量的时间让文明发展。

The Fermi Paradox at its heart is the statement that: not withstanding the fact that there have been billions of years on billions of worlds for civilizations to arise, we see no evidence of any of them in the galaxy at all.

费米悖论的核心是一个这样的论述:尽管在数十亿个星球上有数十亿年的时间让文明出现,但我们在银河系中根本没有看到任何文明存在的证据。

So the paradox is: Why?

所以这个悖论是:为什么会这样?

A possible answer to the Fermi Paradox, the question of why there are no civilizations, is because the Earth is pretty much unique in the Milky Way galaxy, in that the climate, the conditions on Earth were stable enough for long enough for life to go from cell to civilization.

关于费米悖论,关于为什么没有文明存在,一个可能的答案是,地球在银河系中是一个非常独特的存在,地球上稳定的环境持续得足够漫长,能够让生命有机会从细胞进化成文明。

If you think about that, that's a big ask.

仔细想想,这个要求非常高。

We know that we live in a violent Universe.

我们知道,宇宙很暴力。

We know there are supernova explosions all over the place.

我们知道太空中到处都在发生着超新星爆炸。

We know that there have been impacts on the Earth, the famous impact that wipes out the large dinosaurs.

我们知道地球上曾经发生过的巨大事件,把恐龙都给灭绝了。

There's been no impact big enough to break the unbroken chain of life for four billion years.

但是,40亿年来,却没有大到足以破坏完整的生命链的撞击事件。

So maybe, maybe it's the case that whilst there are billions of planets, which may have liquid water on the surface, may have oceans that can support life, it may be that none of those planets in the Milky Way galaxy have been stable enough for long enough to produce civilizations.

所以也许,有几十亿颗行星,它们的表面也有液态水,也有能够孕育生命的海洋,但是银河系中没有一颗行星能够稳定足够长的时间来让文明诞生。

So that will be a property of the planet itself; the so-called 'Rare earth hypothesis.'

这就是行星本身的特质;所谓的“稀有地球假说”。

Another explanation for the Fermi Paradox might be that civilizations live and die.

另一种能够解释费米悖论的观点是文明会存在也会死亡。

They rise and then they fall.

它们诞生然后陨落。

And because of the sheer timescales involved, and the sheer size of the galaxy, no two civilizations ever overlap.

因为这里面涉及到的时间尺度和银河系的规模,从来没有两种文明重叠存在过。

I once had the great pleasure of meeting Frank Drake, the Drake equation, a legend, and he also grows orchids.

我曾经有幸见到过弗兰克·德雷克,德雷克方程,也是一个传奇,他也种兰花。

And I arrived at his house just coincidentally on the day that this rare orchid flowers, and it flowers for I think one or two days and then goes away again for the year, and then flowers again the next year- and he used it as an analogy.

我去他家的时候正好碰上一种罕见的兰花开花的那天,我想它的花期只有一两天,然后一年都不再开花,第二年的时候会再次开花--他拿这个当比喻。

He said, "Well, maybe civilizations are like that."

他说,“也许文明就是这样的。”

So maybe civilizations are like rare orchids.

所以也许文明就像罕见的兰花。

And so they flower and die, and flower and die.

它们开花,凋谢,开花,再凋谢。

And just because of the sheer timescales involved, none of them ever overlap.

就是因为存在时间差,所以两种花从未同时出现过。

And so there could be the wreckage, the ashes, the fossils of civilizations out there, but of course we'd have no way of knowing until we explore the galaxy and maybe find the ruins of these other civilizations.

按照这种说法,可能会存在文明的残骸、灰烬、化石,当然,除非我们去探索银河系,并找到其他文明留下的痕迹,否则我们没法知道。

Who knows?

谁知道呢?

Another possibility is that it's not a paradox. They are here.

还有一种可能性是它不是悖论,其他文明也存在着。

So there are intelligent civilizations out there, and they are present in the solar system.

其他地方有高等文明,他们存在在太阳系中。

Let's think, for example, what such an intelligence might look like.

比如,我们想想这样的文明长什么样子。

Well, who knows? They could have sent nano-machines to our solar system.

谁知道呢?他们可能已经往太阳系中发射了纳米机器。

There could be probes all over the place, but if they're the size of an iPhone then we'd have no way of detecting them.

可能到处都是探测器,但如果它们像苹果手机那样大小,那我们肯定无法探测到。

So it could be that the technology of a sufficiently advanced alien species, a civilization, is so beyond anything we can comprehend or detect that we haven't seen it- and that's certainly, entirely possible.

所以,有可能存在一个极其先进的外星物种,一种文明的技术,远远超出了我们所能理解或探测到的任何东西,所以我们看不到它--这当然是完全可能的。

Another possibility is just that the Galaxy is so big.

另一种可能性是星系太大了。

The distances between stars are so great that if you imagine there's another civilization, let's say on the other side of our Galaxy, even if they had the most powerful radio transmitters you could imagine, then it may just be that the distances are so great that the signals are diluted, that we can't detect them because they're too weak.

恒星之间的距离是如此之远,即便我们想象存在着另一种文明,即便他们拥有你能想象到的最强大的无线电发射器,但是因为距离太远,信号被稀释了,我们无法探测到,因为信号太弱了。

Now, perhaps you can build a spacecraft that can hop a few light years away to the nearby solar system, but you can't build a spacecraft that can traverse a galaxy.

也许你可以建造一艘宇宙飞船,它可以跳跃到几光年外的太阳系附近,但你无法建造一艘可以穿越星系的宇宙飞船。

Now, it's possible that there are many civilizations out there, but the advanced civilizations choose to remain hidden, sometimes called the 'Dark forest hypothesis,' the 'Quarantine hypothesis.'

宇宙中也许存在着很多文明,但先进的文明选择隐藏自己,这种说法有时被称为“黑暗森林假说”,“隔离假说”,

Let's imagine that civilizations, when they get technologically advanced also get intellectually, morally advanced.

我们假设这种文明在技术上取得进步时,他们的智力和道德也会进步。

And let's say that they choose, perhaps for good reason, let's say they choose to remain hidden because they don't want to draw attention to themselves.

我们假设,他们是出于善意,选择隐藏自己,因为他们不希望引起任何人的注意。

Let's say it's inevitable that if you think about it carefully, and you think there are other advanced civilizations out there, then you choose to remain silent.

假设这是不可避免的,仔细想想,你认为外面存在着其他先进文明,你选择保持静默。

You hide yourself as best you can. Maybe that's a logical thing to do.

你尽最大的努力隐藏自己。这是个合理的选择。

I find it difficult to believe, given human history, that that's the way that intelligent civilizations behave.

鉴于人类发展史,我很难相信智慧文明会这么做。

We certainly haven't made any attempt to remain hidden so far.

到目前为止,我们没有任何想要隐藏自己的意思。

We broadcast radio signals out to the stars.

我们往恒星上发射无线电信号。

We've launched on our space probes, like Voyager, pulsar maps, in that case, which shows the location of our solar system should any other civilization find it.

我们发射了“旅行者号”这样的太空探测器,发射了脉冲星地图,如果任何文明能找到它,就能知道我们在太阳系中的位置。

We've tried at every opportunity to broadcast our existence.

我们无所不用其极地将自己的存在广而告之。

Carl Sagan argued that a sufficiently advanced civilization, a civilization that can build interstellar spacecraft and communicate across interstellar distances, perhaps is is wise enough to have overcome those primitive instincts: the instinct to cause trouble, to fight wars, to colonize, to walk over other civilizations.

卡尔·萨根认为,一个足够先进的文明,一个能够建造星际飞船并跨越星际距离进行交流的文明,也许它已经聪明到可以克制住那些原始的本能:制造麻烦、发动战争、殖民、凌驾于其他文明之上的本能。

Perhaps it's inevitable that with technological advance ultimately comes wisdom.

也许科技的先进最终必会带来智慧。

Maybe it's like Star Trek. Maybe it's the "Prime Directive."

也许就像《星际迷航》一样。也许是“最高指导原则”(注:要求星际舰队不得干涉有正常文化发展的外星种族生活与文化发展)。

'Animals who happen to look like us. Still thank the Prime directives for this planet?

‘碰巧长的像我们的动物,还在为这个星球感谢主指令吗?

I don't think we have a right or the wisdom to interfere, however a planet is evolving.'

我觉得我们没有权利或智慧去干涉一个星球的进化’

Maybe it's morally certain that if you're sufficiently advanced, you decide to take the position that you will never introduce yourself or interfere with another civilization- but it's a hypothesis.

也许如果你足够先进,你会决定永远不告知他人自己的存在,也不干涉其他文明,这在道德上是肯定的--但这是一个假设。

重点单词   查看全部解释    
explore [iks'plɔ:]

想一想再看

v. 探险,探测,探究

联想记忆
drake [dreik]

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n. 公鸭;蜉蝣类(等于drake fly)

 
unique [ju:'ni:k]

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adj. 独一无二的,独特的,稀罕的

联想记忆
primitive ['primitiv]

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adj. 原始的
n. 原始人,文艺复兴前的艺

联想记忆
intelligent [in'telidʒənt]

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adj. 聪明的,智能的

 
produce [prə'dju:s]

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n. 产品,农作物
vt. 生产,提出,引起,

联想记忆
prime [praim]

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adj. 最初的,首要的,最好的,典型的
n.

联想记忆
frank [fræŋk]

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adj. 坦白的,直率的,真诚的
vt. 免费

 
sheer [ʃiə]

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adj. 纯粹的,全然的,陡峭的
adv. 完

 
explanation [.eksplə'neiʃən]

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n. 解释,说明

 

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