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There's an idea in this field, in trying to explain the Fermi Paradox, called the 'Great Filter.'
在这个领域，有一种试图解答费米悖论而提出的观点，叫做“大过滤器”。
So let's think about what it would mean for a great filter to lie in our future.
我们来想想，如果我们的未来存在一个大过滤器，意味着什么。
That would mean that civilizations do arise in the Milky Way galaxy, and get to somewhere like the position that we are at now; so they develop rocketry, they develop nuclear power, nuclear weapons, for example.
这意味着银河系中确实有文明存在，并且会发展到比如我们现在这个阶段；他们研发出了火箭、核能、核武器等。
They industrialize.
他们会工业化。
But then there's a filter in the future that stops them becoming true spacefaring civilizations, so stops them becoming multi-planetary species, and stops them ultimately traveling between solar systems to begin to colonize a galaxy.
但是未来有一个过滤器，让他们无法变成真正的宇宙飞行文明，让他们无法变成跨行星的物种，并且让他们无法在太阳系中穿梭，无法殖民一个星系。
So why might that be?
为什么要这样呢？
Why might there be a filter waiting for us in our not too distant future that's gonna stop us from becoming an interplanetary species, and ultimately traveling out beyond our solar system?
为什么在不久的未来，会有一个过滤器让我们无法变成跨行星的物种，最终也无法旅行到太阳系以外呢？
I don't think it's technology.
我觉得这并不符合技术发展规律。
As far as I can see, I don't see anything in the laws of nature, in principle, that would stop us from becoming an interstellar species.
在我看来，自然界中并不存在任何规律会阻止我们变成星际物种。
It could be that our knowledge, our scientific prowess exceeds our wisdom, exceeds our political skill.
出现这种情况可能的原因是，我们的知识，我们的科研实力，可能会超过我们的智慧，超过我们的政治技能。
It could be that once a civilization develops the means to destroy itself in the form, for example, of nuclear weapons or biological weapons, or maybe some kind of a lack of control of AI, who knows?
也可能是一种文明发展出了自我毁灭的方式，比如核武器、生物武器，或者是某种对人工智能的失控，谁知道呢？
If you look back through our recent history, there have been several occasions that we know about where we came very close to destroying ourselves, or at least setting us back to the Stone Age.
看一看近代史，有几次我们差点就自我毁灭了，或者至少能让我们倒退到石器时代。
For example, where there could have been nuclear launches and weren't.
比如，我们本来可以发射核武器的，但实际并没有这么做。
I'm sure there are many others that we don't know about.
我相信肯定还有一些其他我们不了解的情况。
There's the challenge of climate change.
还有气候变化这个挑战。
We're completely incapable of coming together at the moment as a global civilization to address that challenge- that could set our civilization back.
目前，我们完全无法团结成一个星球文明，去解决这项挑战--它可能会让我们的文明倒退。
So it might just be almost a law of nature.
所以，一切也许就只是自然法则。
I think my favorite's the other ones, so I'll do the other great filter.
我最喜欢的是其他理论，所以我会解释另一种大过滤器。
If I was to guess why we see no evidence of other civilizations out there, the so-called 'great silence' is what astronomers call it, is because there aren't any and there never have been any.
如果要我猜为什么找不到其他文明存在的证据，也就是天文学家们所说的“大寂静”，我觉得是因为其他文明根本就不存在，也从未存在过。
The reason I guess that, and I emphasize it's a guess, is biology.
我觉得原因在于生物学，我强调一下，这只是个猜测。
So if you look at the history of life on Earth, then we see that life began 3.8 billion years ago, let's say.
看一下地球上的生命发展史，生命在38亿年前出现，先假设是这样。
But then we see for the best part of three billion years on this planet that there's nothing more complex than a single cell.
但后来，在这个星球上30亿年的大部分时间里，只有单个细胞这样简单的生物存在。
And there could be good biological reasons for that: One that springs to mind is the evolution of what's called the 'eukaryotic cell,' which form all multicellular living things on the planet.
这背后是有生物学原因的：我首先想到的就是所谓的“真核细胞”的进化，它构成了地球上所有的多细胞生物。
Those cells, which seem to be prerequisite for complex multicellular life, evolved once on this planet as far as we can tell.
这些细胞似乎是复杂多细胞生命的先决条件，据我们所知，它们曾经在这个星球上进化过很长一段时间。
Pretty widely accepted. It's called the 'Fateful encounter hypothesis.'
这种说法被广泛接受。它被称为“命运相遇假说”。
And so it seems that there is a very unusual evolutionary event at some point that lead the foundations for us.
所以，在某个时期，出现了一种不同寻常的进化事件，为我们的诞生奠定了基础。
If it typically is the case that it takes four billion years from cell to civilization, then I think there may be very few planets in a typical galaxy which are stable enough for long enough for that process to proceed.
如果一般来说，从细胞到文明需要40亿年，那么我认为在一个普通的星系中，可能很少有行星能够稳定这么长时间，让这个过程得以发生。
I think there's one civilization in the Milky Way galaxy, and there only has ever been one, and there might only ever be one-and that's us.
我觉得在银河系中只有一个文明，曾经也只有一个文明，并且永远也只有一个文明--那就是我们。
Which, by the way, means that we have a tremendous responsibility not to mess this up.
这意味着，我们肩负着巨大的责任，不要毁了这一切。
That means the Earth is the only island of meaning in a sea of 400 billion suns.
这意味着在4千亿颗恒星的海洋中，地球是唯一的一座有意义的小岛。
And so if we destroy this, we might destroy meaning in a galaxy forever.
如果我们把它毁了，可能意味着永远毁掉了这个星系的意义。
However, that's a hypothesis.
不过，那都只是假设。
I will be delighted if it turns out that's not true.
如果事实并非如此，我会很开心。
And that's not just because it removes some responsibility from me, and you, and everybody else, but also every scientist should be delighted if they are shown to be wrong.
不只是因为那样会让我们每个人身上的责任少一点，而且如果事实证明科学家们错了，他们每个人都应该开心。
Because the moment you are shown to be wrong, it means you've learned something, and that's the way that knowledge progresses.
因为当事实证明你错了的时候，你就学到了一些新东西，知识就是这样进步的。
So nobody should be worried about making a guess, advancing a hypothesis, an educated guess.
所以任何人都可以大胆猜想，提出假设，做出一些合乎道理的猜想。
And me being wrong, by the way, would constitute a flying saucer landing and some aliens coming out like ET and saying "Hello."
顺便说一下，如果我真的错了，就意味着会有外星人从飞碟上下来，跟我们说“你好”。
So that would be brilliant.
那就太棒了。
But it would be doubly brilliant because it would turn out that I'd learnt something about the Universe, which is that complex civilizations are not as rare as I think they are, or civilizations aren't as rare, so that would be a good thing.
而且它会更棒，因为那将说明我对宇宙又有了新的认知，即复杂的文明并不像我以为的那样稀少，或者文明并不那么罕见，这是好事。
So there's a lesson.
我们总会学到教训的。
