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A recent study says African countries are less likely to follow East Asia's development model of expanding manufacturing to reduce poverty.
最近的一项研究表明，非洲国家不太可能效仿东亚通过扩大制造业来减轻贫困的发展模式。
The study predicts a decreasing share of factory jobs for most countries by 2050.
这项研究预测，到2050年，大多数国家的工厂岗位比例将会下降。
The Center for Global Development (CGD) released the study this week.
全球发展中心本周发布了这篇研究论文。
It said there will be fewer factory workers around the world in 2050.
该研究表明，到2050年，世界各地的工厂工人数量将会减少。
And the paper predicts that, even in poor countries with a lot of low-cost labor, manufacturing job growth will slow down.
该研究论文预测，即使在拥有大量低廉劳动力的贫穷国家，制造业岗位数量增长速度也将会放缓。
China may be an exception out of the 59 countries modeled in the study.
在这项研究涉及的59个国家中，中国可能是个例外。
The study said that China will continue to expand its share of manufacturing to 43.8 percent in 2050 from 30 percent in 2018 and 10.5 percent in 1975.
该研究称，中国的制造业份额将从2018年的30%和1975年的10.5%继续增加到2050年的43.8%。
The study's writers said that China will continue its strong manufacturing performance, producing higher-valued products.
该研究论文的作者表示，中国将会继续保持其强劲的制造业表现，生产更高价值的产品。
This might create some space for developing countries in Africa, Southeast Asia, and South and Central America to start producing the products China will no longer produce.
这可能会为非洲、东南亚、南美和中美洲的发展中国家创造一些空间，让他们开始生产中国不再生产的产品。
However, it will not be enough for other countries to follow the same development path taken by East Asia in expanding manufacturing.
然而，其他国家在扩大制造业方面走东亚相同的发展道路是不够的。
Charles Kenny and Ranil Dissanayake of CGD said that many countries will move straight from agriculture to services.
全球发展中心的查尔斯·肯尼和拉尼尔·迪萨纳亚克表示，许多国家将直接从农业转向服务业。
They say jobs will greatly expand in services because of new technologies – even in countries such as Bangladesh and Ethiopia.
他们表示，由于新技术的出现，服务业的岗位数量将会大大增加，甚至在孟加拉国和埃塞俄比亚等国也是如此。
"There's still a popular idea that low-income countries will progress naturally from being dominated by agriculture to manufacturing-led growth, but mounting evidence suggests that's not going to happen," said Kenny.
肯尼说：“仍有一种流行的观点认为，低收入国家将自然而然地从以农业为主导的经济增长转向以制造业为主导的经济增长，但越来越多的证据表明，这是不可能的。”
He said people think that farms are going to empty out across Africa and Asia in the coming years, but he said, people are likely to flood into offices and stores, not factories.
他说，人们认为非洲和亚洲的农场在未来几年将会空无一人，但他说，人们可能会涌入办公室和商店，而不是工厂。
The study projects worldwide growth through the year 2050.
这项研究预测，到2050年，全球经济将会增长。
It aims to predict changes in the economies of 59 countries that make up about three quarters of the world's GDP and population.
它旨在预测59个国家的经济变化，这些国家的国内生产总值和人口约占世界的四分之三。
GDP, or gross domestic product, measures all the goods and services produced in a country in a year.
国内生产总值衡量一个国家在一年内生产的所有商品和服务。
GDP is considered a good measure of the size of a nation's economy.
国内生产总值被认为是衡量一个国家经济规模的一个很好的指标。
The study projects that even for the lowest-income countries, the number of factory jobs will just keep up with population growth over the next 30 years.
这项研究预测，在未来30年里，即使在收入最低的国家里，工厂岗位的数量也将刚好赶上人口增长的步伐。
And it projects manufacturing will likely stay a small part of most of these countries' economies.
它还预计，制造业在其中大部分国家的经济增长量中可能只占一小部分。
Across all low-income countries, manufacturing jobs are projected to remain below eight percent of total employment.
在所有低收入国家，制造业岗位数量预计将保持在总就业人数的8%以下。
The study projects the share of manufacturing jobs in high-income countries will continue to fall, to 8.3 percent by 2050 from 11.4 percent currently.
该研究预测，高收入国家制造业岗位比例将会继续下降，到2050年将从目前的11.4%降至8.3%。
Jobs in private service industries are expected to make up 37 percent of worldwide jobs by 2050, and 26 percent in low-income countries.
到2050年，私营服务业的岗位数量预计将占全球岗位数量的37%，低收入国家将占26%。
That is up from about 12 percent currently.
高于目前的约12%。
I'm Gregory Stachel.
格雷戈里·施塔赫尔为您播报。
译文为可可英语翻译，未经授权请勿转载！
