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Prediction is powerful. For as long as people have been thinking about the future, we’ve also been trying to predict it.
预测的力量是强大的。自人们开始思考未来起，就一直在试图预测未来。
And, in some areas, we’ve gotten pretty good (think, like, meteorology and climate modeling).
在某些领域，我们已经做得很好了(比如，气象预测和气候建模)。
But scientifically-speaking — we’re still pretty far from the stuff of crystal balls and oracles.
但从科学角度讲，我们离水晶球和神谕还很远。
There’s lots of things people have no reliable way to forecast, despite what your horoscope may suggest.
尽管星象可以进行暗示，但很多事情我们还没法用可靠的方法进行预测。
Absolutely. But… what if artificial intelligence could get us closer to that fantasy/supernatural realm of divination than ever before?
绝对正确。但是, 如果人工智能能让我们比以往任何时候都更接近超自然的(幻想的)占卜境界呢？
What if, for instance, an AI model could accurately forecast a person’s death?
比如说，如果人工智能模型可以准确预测一个人的死亡呢？
Wait, what?!
等等，什么？！
Yeah. It sounds really scary, right?
是的。听起来很可怕，对吗？
Uh, yeah.
嗯，是的。
— and it might be, but probably not for the reasons you expect.
——可能会很可怕，但可能不是你料想的原因。
I’m Lauren Leffer, tech reporting fellow at Scientific American.
我是《科学美国人》的科技报道编辑劳伦·莱弗。
And I’m Tulika Bose, senior multimedia editor.
我是高级多媒体编辑图利卡·博斯。
And you’re listening to Scientific American's Science, Quickly podcast.
你正在收听《科学美国人》的科学快播栏目。
So Tulika, death– we’re all going to do it one day, but if you could know when you’re going to die, would you want to?
图利卡，我们总有一天会死亡，但如果你能知道你什么时候会死，你会想知道吗？
No, no, no.
呃，不想。
You didn't even let me finish the question.
你甚至都没让我把问题问完。
No, I don't wanna know.
是的，我不想知道。
Yeah, me either– it seems like an obvious case of TMI.
是的，我也不想知道。很明显，这似乎是一个信息量过大(TMI代表Too much information)的案例。
Yeah! For sure.
是的！当然。
But the inherently unsettling nature of “an AI calculator that spits out death predictions” didn’t stop researchers from developing just that.
能预测死亡的人工智能计算器本身就会让人心神不安，但这并没有阻止研究人员成功对它进行开发。
The tool is called life2vec, and was described in a study published late last year.
这个预测死亡的工具被命名为life2vec。去年年底发表的一项研究对life2vec进行了描述。
And it’s really an AI widget that says when you’re gonna die?
这真的是一个能预测死亡时间的人工智能小工具吗？
Yes and no. Life2vec isn’t just a death predictor. It’s way more general than that. It can offer more than just mortality forecasts.
不好说。life2vec不仅仅是一个死亡预测器，它的用途更广泛，它能提供更多的服务, 远不止可以预测死亡率。
One big caveat right up from those: it’s hard to know exactly how accurate any of its predictions are at the moment– no one is claiming the tool can definitively predict an individual person’s death.
但有一点必须提醒：目前很难确切知道life2vec的预测有多准确，也没有人声称这个工具可以明确预测某个人的死亡。
It’s also trained on a very specific data set, namely one that contains information on residents of Denmark?
life2vec的训练是基于一个非常具体的数据集，即包含丹麦居民信息的数据集。
So it can’t offer meaningful predictions about anyone who isn’t Danish.
因此，这个工具无法对任何非丹麦人提供有意义的预测。
Ok, so that’s a relief. But can we go back to the “more general thing”? Like, what else can it predict?
好，这让人如释重负。但我们能回到“更广泛的功能”上吗？ 比如，它还能预测什么？
Yeah, so you know, maybe it's a big deal for Danes.
是的，它可能对丹麦人来说这是一件大事。
But on top of forecasting mortality over a four year period, the developers also tested their tool’s ability to predict peoples’ answers to a personality questionnaire and to forecast if someone would make an international move.
但是除了预测四年内的死亡率外，开发人员还测试了这种工具预测人们回答个性问卷的能力, 以及预测某人是否会进行国际搬家的能力。
Interesting —
有趣——
In all three of these tests, life2vec seemed to perform pretty well. It had higher accuracy than other prediction methods the researchers compared it to.
在这三项测试中，life2vec似乎表现出色，准确率高于研究人员比较的其他预测方法。
For the death test, that meant about 78% accurate, and moving abroad, with about 73%.
在死亡测试中，准确率约为78%；在移居国外的测试中，准确率约为73%。
