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[00:00.05]Economic experts and business owners in the United States say immigrant workers have helped keep the country from falling into a recession.
美国的经济专家和企业老板表示移民工人帮助了美国避免陷入衰退。
[00:09.72]Economists predicted the United States economy would suffer when the country's central bank started raising the baseline rate for lending money about two years ago.
在大约两年前，当美国中央银行开始提高贷款基准利率时, 经济学家就预测美国经济将受到影响。
[00:22.05]Instead, businesses have hired more workers.
相反，企业雇佣了更多的工人。
[00:25.97]The unemployment rate has gone down.
失业率已经下降了。
[00:28.95]But rates have continued to rise.
但利率仍在继续上升。
[00:32.17]The reason, experts say?
专家问道：究竟是为什么呢？
[00:35.17]People like Luisana Silva and Mariel Marrero, immigrants from Venezuela.
像路易萨娜·席尔瓦和玛丽埃尔·马雷罗这样的人是来自委内瑞拉的移民。
[00:41.60]Silva, who is 25, lives in South Carolina and works for a rug company.
席尔瓦现年25岁，住在南卡罗来纳州，在一家地毯公司工作。
[00:48.77]She loads heavy carpets onto trucks for delivery.
她把沉重的地毯装上卡车送货。
[00:52.95]Silva, her husband and their 7-year-old daughter left Venezuela, walked through dangerous lands before arriving at the United States border city of Brownsville, Texas.
席尔瓦、她的丈夫和他们7岁的女儿离开委内瑞拉，穿过危险的土地，到达美国边境城市德克萨斯州的布朗斯维尔。
[01:06.80]They asked for asylum from the United States, claiming the need to escape political and economic difficulties at home.
他们向美国寻求庇护，声称需要逃离国内的政治和经济困境。
[01:16.72]Silva and her husband received work permits last year and found jobs.
席尔瓦和她的丈夫去年获得了工作许可，并找到了工作。
[01:23.70]Silva earns enough to pay for a living space, buy food for her family, put fuel in her car and send money back to her parents in Venezuela.
席尔瓦赚的钱足够支付房租，为家人买食物，给汽车加油，并把钱寄回委内瑞拉的父母。
[01:35.12]She wants to help her family back home and build a life for herself in the U.S.
她想帮助她的家人来美国，并在美国建立自己的生活。
[01:40.95]Mariel Marrero, 32, left Venezuela in 2016 after receiving death threats for voicing opposition to President Nicolas Maduro.
32岁的玛丽埃尔·马雷罗于2016年离开委内瑞拉，此前她因反对总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗而收到死亡威胁。
[01:54.22]She lived in Panama and El Salvador before arriving in the U.S. and asking for asylum.
在抵达美国并寻求庇护之前，她曾在巴拿马和萨尔瓦多生活过。
[02:02.42]The U.S. is still considering her case.
美国仍在考虑她的情况。
[02:06.35]For now, Marrero has a short-term work permit.
目前，马雷罗有一份短期工作许可证。
[02:10.97]She lives in a small city outside of Miami, Florida, where many Venezuelan immigrants live.
她住在佛罗里达州迈阿密郊外的一个小城市，那里居住着许多委内瑞拉移民。
[02:17.82]Marrero has worked several small jobs.
马雷罗做过几份小工作。
[02:21.62]She is now able to save about $200 each month to send to her family back in Venezuela.
现在，她每个月可以攒下大约200美元寄给委内瑞拉的家人。
[02:29.62]Heidi Shierholz is president of the Economic Policy Institute in Washington, D. C.
海蒂·谢尔霍尔茨是华盛顿特区经济政策研究所所长。
[02:39.02]She is also a former chief economist at the U.S. Labor Department.
她也是美国劳工部的前首席经济学家。
[02:46.02]She said economic observers considered it "something of a mystery" that the U.S. had strong job growth but also saw inflation drop while interest rates rose.
她说，经济观察人士认为，美国就业增长强劲，但在利率上升的同时，通胀也有所下降，这“有点神秘”。
[03:02.52]Most believed the U.S. would see more unemployment.
大多数人认为美国会出现更多的失业。
[03:08.17]"The immigration numbers being higher than what we had thought — that really does pretty much solve that puzzle,'' Shierholz said.
谢尔霍尔茨说：“移民人数比我们预想的要多--这在很大程度上解决了这个难题。”
[03:19.30]Still, immigration is set to be a central issue of this year's U.S. presidential election.
尽管如此，移民问题仍将是今年美国总统大选的核心问题。
[03:29.20]Former President Donald Trump is the leading candidate opposing President Joe Biden in the race.
前总统唐纳·德特朗普是在竞选中与总统乔·拜登对垒的主要候选人。
[03:38.55]He is criticizing Biden over what he believes is a lack of control at the southern U.S. border.
他批评拜登缺乏对美国南部边境的控制。
[03:47.80]Trump has described migrants as criminals and has said they are "poisoning the blood" of America.
特朗普将移民描述为罪犯，并表示他们正在“污染美国血液。”
[03:56.55]Trump says he wants to finish building the border wall that was a big part of his presidential campaign in 2016.
特朗普表示，他希望完成边境墙的修建，这会是他2016年总统竞选的重要部分。
[04:07.62]Back in 2019, the Congressional Budget Office estimated net immigration – the number of new people minus those who left – would be about 1 million in the year 2023.
早在2019年，国会预算办公室便估计，到2023年，净移民——新移民人数减去离开人口的人数——将达到100万人左右。
[04:24.95]The actual number turned out to be 3.3 million.
实际数字则是330万。
[04:31.67]Many employers have welcomed the new arrivals.
许多雇主对新来的人表示欢迎。
[04:37.02]When the United States ended some of its COVID-19 restrictions and businesses re-opened, business owners found a changed workforce.
当美国结束了对新冠肺炎的一些限制，企业重新开张时，企业主们发现劳动力发生了变化。
[04:49.40]The number of native-born Americans in their "prime working years" – ages 25 to 54 -- had dropped.
年龄在25岁到54岁之间的“黄金工作年龄段”的美国本土出生人口数量有所下降。
[05:00.32]Many Americans had aged out of that group and were nearing retirement.
许多美国人已经不再属于这一群体，即将退休。
[05:08.12]This group's numbers have shrunk by 770,000 since February 2020, just before COVID-19 hit.
在2020年2月新冠疫情爆发前夕，这一群体的数量就已经减少了77万人。
[05:19.67]But over the past four years, immigrants have filled that gap.
但在过去的四年里，移民填补了这一空白。
[05:26.25]The number of "prime-age" workers has increased by 2.8 million.
“黄金年龄”劳动者增加了280万人。
[05:33.57]Ninety-six percent of those workers were born outside the United States.
这些工人中有96%出生在美国以外的地方。
[05:41.30]The Economic Policy Institute said immigrants accounted for almost 19 percent of the U.S. labor force in 2023.
经济政策研究所表示，2023年移民占美国劳动力的近19%。
[05:54.22]That is a record number.
这是一个创纪录的数字。
[05:57.67]Jan Gautam is the top leader of a hotel business in Orlando, Florida.
简·高塔姆是佛罗里达州奥兰多市一家酒店企业的最高领导人。
[06:03.62]He said most Americans do not want to take jobs cleaning hotel rooms in his company's 44 hotels.
他说，大多数美国人不想担任在他的公司44家酒店打扫房间的工作。
[06:13.72]He said 85 percent of his 3,500 employees are immigrants.
他说，他的3500名员工中有85%是移民。
[06:21.00]"Without employees, you are broken," said Gautam, who is an immigrant from India.
“没有员工，你就完蛋了，”来自印度的移民高塔姆说。
[06:27.17]In the northeastern American state of Maine, half of the workers at the Flood Brothers dairy farm are immigrants.
在美国东北部的缅因州，弗拉德兄弟奶牛场的工人中有一半是移民。
[06:36.05]Jenni Tilton-Flood is a partner in the farm.
珍妮·蒂尔顿-弗拉德是农场的合伙人。
[06:40.12]She said immigrant workers are skilled at feeding cows and collecting milk – almost 70,000 liters per day.
她说，移民工人擅长饲养奶牛和收集牛奶-每天近7万升。
[06:50.37]"We would not have an economy, in Maine or in the U.S., if we did not have highly skilled labor that comes from outside of this country," Tilton-Flood said.
蒂尔顿-弗拉德说：“如果我们没有来自国外的高技能劳动力，我们缅因州或美国的经济就不会发展。”
[07:02.67]Wendy Edelberg and Tara Watson are economists at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.
温迪·埃德尔伯格和塔拉·沃森是华盛顿布鲁金斯学会的经济学家。
[07:12.75]They wrote in a study that over the past two years, immigrants permitted the U.S. to generate jobs without pushing inflation higher and causing a recession.
他们在一项研究中写道，在过去两年里，移民使得美国在不提高通胀和导致经济衰退的情况下创造就业机会。
[07:27.57]They added that the U.S. can now absorb up to 200,000 new jobs per month without pushing up inflation.
他们补充说，美国现在每月可以吸收多达20万个新工作岗位，而不会推高通胀。
[07:38.90]In the past, economists said the number of new workers could not go higher than 100,000 per month without causing an inflation increase.
过去，经济学家们曾说过，每月新增工人的数量不能超过 10 万，否则就会导致通胀上升。
[07:53.12]Douglas Holtz-Eakin once led the Congressional Budget Office.
道格拉斯·霍尔茨-埃金曾领导国会预算办公室。
[07:58.92]He said: "The way to solve an inflation crisis is to endure an immigration crisis."
他说：“解决通胀危机的方法是忍受移民危机。
[08:08.25]Observers agree that immigration as it stands in the United States can be difficult for state and local governments, even if it has helped the economy.
观察人士一致认为，美国目前的移民状况即使帮助了经济，对各州和地方政府来说可能仍造成困难。
[08:22.95]About 27 percent of the 3.3 million immigrants who came to the United States last year did so as "lawful permanent residents.
去年来到美国的330万移民中，约有27%的人是以“合法永久居民”的身份进入美国的。
[08:36.82]" The rest – 2.4 million – either came without permission, overstayed their visas, are waiting for their cases to be heard in immigration court or are part of a program that lets them stay temporarily and sometimes work in the country.
其余的240万人要么是未经许可来的，要么是签证过期，要么是在等待移民法庭审理他们的案件，要么是一个项目的一部分，该项目允许他们暂时居留，有时还会在美国工作。
[08:59.62]Some experts say immigrants who come to the U.S. do important work that many Americans will not do.
一些专家说，来到美国的移民做了许多美国人不会做的重要工作。
[09:09.22]They are also likely to start new businesses.
他们还可能开始新的业务。
[09:14.47]While the experts debate what to do, Marrero, the Venezuelan immigrant living in Florida, said she feels lucky to be in the country.
就在专家们争论不休的时候，居住在佛罗里达州的委内瑞拉移民马雷罗说，她觉得能在这个国家生活很幸运。
[09:27.55]"I imagine having my own company, my house, helping my family in a more comfortable way," Marrero said.
“我想象拥有自己的公司、自己的房子，以更舒适的方式帮助我的家人，”马雷罗说。
[09:38.22]I'm Caty Weaver.
我是凯蒂·韦弗。
[09:39.82]And I'm Dan Friedell.
我是丹·弗里德尔。
