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Conversation Two
对话二
M: Cathy, chaos theory seems to be a branch of physics or mathematics.
凯茜，混沌理论看着像是物理或数学的分支。
You are an economist, so how does it influence your work?
你是经济学家，所以它怎么影响你的工作的？
W: Well, in several ways.
以各种方式。
I'm responsible for financial development programs in many parts of the world, so forecasting long range trends and making predictions on the basis of present evidence is what I do.
我负责世界各地的金融发展项目，所以我的工作是基于现有迹象来预测长期趋势并做预报。
Chaos theory was developed by scientists trying to explain the movement of the planets and changes in environmental conditions.
科学家尝试解释星球运动以及环境变化，从而建立了混沌理论。
Both of these things are also about making long term predictions on the basis of present evidence.
这两者也是在现有迹象的基础上做长期预测。
M: Are many economists involved in this field?
有很多经济学家涉足这一领域吗？
W: An increasing number.
数量在增加。
In the 1990s, many economists began to look at chaos theory as a way of providing models for forecasting.
上个世纪九十年代，许多经济学家开始认为混沌理论可以建立预报模型。
M: What kind of "models" are we talking about here?
这里说的"模型"指的是什么？
W: Well, that's a good question.
问得好。
Because the basic idea of chaos theory is that there aren't any "models" as such—there aren't guaranteed forms, but rather patterns of change and development.
因为混沌理论的基本观点是不存在这样的"模型"，不存在确定的形式，而存在变化和发展的模式。
M: Doesn't that mean that forecasting is impossible?
这不是说预测是不可能的吗？
W: No, but it certainly makes it more of a challenge.
并不是，不过这确实让预测更难了。
Mandelbrot, who did the experiment with stock exchange prices, for example, noted that although the outcomes were variable, there were in fact certain constants.
曼德勃罗做过股票交易价格的实验，拿他举个例子，他指出尽管结果是变化的，但实际上存在某些常量。
What we have to do is make sure we know what these are and take into account all the possible valuables.
我们需要确定哪些是常量，并考虑到所有可能的重要因素。
M: But do economics and finance work in the same way as weather conditions or the movement of plants?
但是经济学和金融工作能和天气状况或植物运动一样吗？
W: Well, no, of course not.
不，当然不同。
There are certain underlying similarities.
有某些潜在的相似性。
But we have to leave them for another time.
但这个话题我们下次再谈。
Questions 5 to 8 are based on the conversation you have just heard.
请根据你刚刚听到的对话回答问题5至问题8。
5. What is the woman's profession?
问题5：女士的职业是什么？
6. What was chaos theory supposed to do when it was first formulated?
问题6：混沌理论建立之初是用来做什么的？
7. What does the woman say about the basic idea of chaos theory?
问题7：关于混沌理论的基本观点女士谈了些什么？
8. What are the speakers mainly talking about?
问题8：说话人主要谈论了什么？
