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Now, it's become something of a ritual to debate the value of a college degree, but as current population survey data show, there has been a sharp decline in employment among men without college degrees compared with those who have them.
现在，讨论大学学位的价值已经成为一种习惯，但根据目前的人口调查数据显示，与拥有大学学位的男性相比，没有大学学位的男性的就业率急剧下降。
This decline began in the 1960s and has become more serious over time.
该数据从20世纪60年代就开始下降，并随着时间的推移变得更加严重。
What has actually caused this decline?
究竟是什么原因导致了该数据的下降？
Well, economists have been working to ascertain the roots of the decline for decades and have come up with several theories.
经济学家们几十年来一直在努力查明这一下降的根源，并提出了几种理论。
One popular theory is that it's a case of too low wages for jobs that don't require a degree.
其中一个较为普遍的理论是，这是因为不需要学位的工作工资太低。
An alternate theory is that there were more jobs not requiring a college degree in the past than now.
另一种理论是，过去不需要大学文凭的工作比现在多。
A recent working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research reviewed those theories and put forward additional hypotheses about the causes of the problem.
美国国家经济研究局最近发表的一篇工作论文审查了这些理论，并提出了有关这一问题产生原因的额外假设。
Let's look at that paper now.
让我们现在来看一下这篇论文。
First, the researchers considered the issue of wages.
首先，研究人员考虑了工资问题。
As the wage gap has grown between those with college degrees and those without, economists have suggested that men aren't as interested in taking some of the less lucrative jobs.
随着拥有大学学位和没有学位者之间的工资差距不断扩大，经济学家提出男性对一些收入较低的工作不太感兴趣。
While the authors of the paper found truth in this explanation, they assert that low wages can't be the only factor, as wages for men without college degrees, adjusting for inflation, haven't changed much since the 1960s, making it hard to see why fewer men seem willing to accept those wages.
虽然这篇论文的作者们能找到一些事实情况映证这一假设，他们断言低工资不能是唯一的因素，因为自1960年代以来，考虑通货膨胀后，没有大学学位的男性的工资并没有发生太大变化，这让人难以理解为什么愿意接受这样工资的男性越来越少。
This leads to the second theory, that more jobs require a college degree today than in the past.
这就引出了第二种理论，即与过去相比，现在更多的工作需要大学文凭。
Indeed, that theory seems valid, because in America today, 2/3 of jobs are filled by workers with at least some college education.
事实上，这个理论似乎是站得住脚的，因为在今天的美国，2/3的工作岗位是由至少受过大学教育的员工占据的。
However, the authors of the paper argue that there are other factors amplifying the problem.
然而，该论文的作者认为，还有其他因素加剧了这一问题。
They identified two new potential explanations.
他们发现了两种新的潜在原因。
The first being the tremendous decline in marriage among men without college degrees since the 1960s.
首先是自20世纪60年代以来，没有大学学历的男性结婚率大幅下降。
And the second, being the increase in women participating in the workforce that was concurrent with the decline in marriage.
第二个原因是，结婚人数在减少，但加入职场的女性在增加。
These two changes mean that men might not have families to support, or if they do, their wives might be doing more of the providing, both of which might remove the financial incentive to work.
这两个变化意味着男性可能没有家庭需要供养，或者即便有家庭，他们的妻子可能更多地提供经济支持，这两种情况都可能减少出于赚钱而工作的动力。
The authors of the paper concede that research on the subject isn't complete, but they argue that their work supports the value of a college education.
这篇论文的作者们承认对这个问题的研究并不完整，但他们认可大学教育的价值。
Questions 16 to 18 are based on the recording you have just heard.
请根据你刚刚听到的录音回答16 - 18题。
Question 16. What does the speaker say has become something of a ritual?
问题16.讲话者说什么已经成为一种惯例？
Question 17. What did the researchers of a recent working paper consider first?
问题17.最近一篇研究报告的研究人员首先考虑了什么？
Question 18.What did the recent paper identify as a new potential explanation ofthe problem concerning men's employment?
问题18.最近的论文认为，关于男性就业问题的一种新的可能的解释是什么？
