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When Rupert Murdoch sees beams of light in the American advertising market, it is not necessarily time to reach for the sunglasses. Last October, when the impact of September 11th was only beginning to tell, the boss of NewsCorp, a media group, had already identified “strong rays of sunshine”. With ad sales still languishing, Mr. Murdoch declared last month that “there are some hints of a modest upswing in the U.S. advertising markets.” His early optimism turned out to be misplaced. Now, however, other industry observers are beginning to agree with him.
Advertising usually exaggerates the economic cycle: falling sharply and early in a downturn, and rebounding strongly once the economy has begun to recover. This is because most managers prefer to trim their ad budgets rather than their payrolls, and restore such spending only once they feel sure that things are looking up. Last year, America's ad market shrank by 9.8%, according to CMR, a research firm. Although ad spending has not yet recovered across all media, some analysts now expect overall ad spending to start to grow in the third quarter.
The signs of improvement are patchy, however. Ad spending on radio and television seems to be inching up—advertising on American national radio was up 2% in January on the same period last year, according to Aegis—while spending on magazines and newspapers is still weak. Even within any one market, there are huge differences; just pick up a copy of one of the now-slimline high-tech magazines that once bulged with ads, and compare it with the hefty celebrity or women's titles. Advertisers in some categories, such as the travel industry, are still reluctant to buy space or airtime, while others, such as the car and movie businesses, have been bolder. The winter Olympics, held last month in Salt Lake City, has also distorted the spending on broadcast advertising in the first quarter.
Nonetheless, there is an underlying pattern. One measure is the booking of ad spots for national brands on local television. By early March, according to Mr. Westerfield's analysis, such bookings were growing fast across eight out of the top ten advertising sectors, led by the financial and motor industries. UBS Warburg now expects the “upfront” market, which starts in May when advertisers book advance ad spots on the TV networks for the new season in September, to be up 4% on last year. On some estimates, even online advertising could pick up by the end of the year.［419 words］
11. What does the author mean by “it is not necessarily time to reach for the sun glasses” (Para.1)?
［A］ The sunshine is not terribly strong.
［B］ It is not good time to develop advertising.
［C］ There is no need to worry about economy now.
［D］ The real economic recovery has yet to take place.
12. Mr. Murdoch's early market estimation seems to be_________ .
［A］ exaggerating the situation ［B］ being too cautious
［C］ underestimating the development ［D］ probably describing the reality
13. Which of the following is true according to the text?
［A］ Advertising is a sensitive marker of economic change.
［B］ Managers will first cut salary during economic downturn.
［C］ CMR was wrong about last year's U.S. ad market.
［D］ Advertising spending has started overal growing.
14. Signs of improvement are visible in the advertising of______.
［A］ high-tech magazines and sports industry
［B］ celebrity magazines and travel industry
［C］ women's magazines and car industry
［D］ movie industry and high-tech magazines
15. What is the author's view of the prospect of U.S. advertising market?
［A］ Recovery will be slow but sure. ［B］ There will be a big jump.
［C］ Patchy improvement will occur. ［D］ The situation will remain pessimistic.
