The Future Global Economy and the Future Fund

未来的全球经济和基金组织

Christine Lagarde, Managing Director, International Monetary Fund

克里斯蒂娜·拉加德，国际货币基金组织总裁

Washington DC, Friday, October 11, 2013

华盛顿特区，星期五，2013年10月11日

Chairman Frieden, President Kim, Governors, Excellencies:

弗里顿主席、金行长、各位理事、各位尊敬的来宾：

I am delighted to welcome you, on behalf of the IMF, to our Annual Meetings.

我非常高兴代表基金组织欢迎各位参加本届年会。

Coming into these Meetings, I spoke of the Great Transition underway in the global economy: the changing patterns of growth; the changing dynamics of monetary policy; and the changes taking place in the financial sector as well as in the real economy. These transitions will be with us for some time.

这次年会上，我谈及全球经济正在经历的大转型：不断变化的经济增长模式；不断变化的货币政策动态；以及金融业和实体经济正在发生的变革。这些转型将持续很长一段时间。

Even as we grapple with them, we have a responsibility to raise our eyes—and look toward some of the major changes that will transform the global economy over the next generation. I want to take the opportunity today to ask what this might mean for you, our member countries; and what it might mean for the Fund, your institution.

在处理这些转型时，我们有责任将目光放得更远，着眼于在今后二十多年里促使全球经济发生转变所需的重大变革。借此机会，我想问：这对我们的成员国意味着什么，对基金组织又意味着什么。

Our “constitution”—the Articles of Agreement that our founders devised nearly 70 years ago—have proven to be a feat of engineering: strong enough to stand the test of time, yet supple enough to respond to the many challenges that have faced our membership.

我们的“宪法”，即近70年前基金组织创立者制定的《基金组织协定》，是一项伟大的创举：它足够健全，能经受时间的考验；它也足够有弹性，能应对成员国面对的各种挑战。

I am reminded of a Greek proverb about how a society grows great when old people plant trees whose shade they know they shall never sit in.

我想到一则希腊格言，前人植树却不念荫庇，社会才会更好地发展。

Our founders planted the trees that shade us today. Together, we must plant the trees that will provide shade for the generations to come.

今天，前人栽的树为我们提供荫庇，而我们也必须一起栽下树苗，希冀为后代遮阳避雨。

Over the next generation, the rate and reach of change will be great. With that, the needs of our members will change. So too must the Fund.

在未来二十年，变革的速度可能相当快，范围可能相当广。成员国的需求会发生变化，基金组织也必须随之变革。

The IMF must be flexible in its approach and focused on its core goals to best serve you, our members. Flexibility, focus, service—those are our guiding principles.

基金组织必须采取灵活的方法，重点关注其核心目标，以便最有效地服务于你们，我们的成员国。保持灵活，突出重点，提供服务——这是我们的指导原则。

In that spirit, I would like to share with you my thoughts on:

i. The road we have taken;

ii. The road we are on; and

iii. The road ahead—some of the long-term trends that will shape our future.

本着这种精神，我要和大家分享几点想法：一、回首往昔；二、当前道路；三、展望未来——决定我们未来的一些长期趋势。

I. The Road We Have Taken

一、回首往昔

So, where have we come from? The IMF was forged from change. In the midst of the devastation of the Second World War, nations came together to find a solution for the times—and a vision for the future.

那那么，我们是从何处起步的？基金组织是在变革中创立的。面对二战带来的破坏，各国齐心协力找到了应对时局的解决方案，并达成对未来的愿景。

It was the original multilateral moment.

那是最初的多边时刻。

In the years since, the Fund’s mandate has endured: to promote global financial stability and help build a global economy in which all our members—and all people—can prosper.

自那以后，基金组织的使命一直是推动全球金融稳定，帮助构建一个所有成员国都能发展壮大、全人类成长进步的全球经济。

Time and again, this has required the IMF to respond to changes.

这要求基金组织不断地响应变化。

We began by helping Europe to rebuild after World War II. With the winds of change in Africa, and independence in many developing countries, there came a new wave of members—with a new wave of needs. In Latin America, the Fund responded to a major debt crisis. Another major financial crisis followed in Asia. When the Iron Curtain lifted, the Fund responded to another set of new members as they transformed themselves into market economies.

最初，我们协助欧洲进行二战后的重建。随着非洲的变革以及一些发展中国家的独立，一批新成员加入基金组织，也提出新的需求。基金组织对拉丁美洲的债务危机做出了积极应对。随后，亚洲爆发了另一次重大金融危机。当铁幕被打破时，基金组织又对新成员国的市场经济转型做出了回应。

Amidst all this, in the 1970s, the Bretton Woods exchange rate system itself collapsed—and the Fund adapted to support the new monetary system.

在此期间还发生了二十世纪七十年代布雷顿森林体系的汇率制度崩溃，基金组织进行了调整，从而支持新的货币体系。

We may not have always got it right, but we have always learned—mostly by listening to you, our members. And, even as we have adapted, we have always stayed true to our mission—and true to our membership.

我们不可能一直正确，但我们一直在努力吸取经验教训——主要是通过聆听你们，即全体成员国的意见。另外，在调整过程中，我们一直坚守着我们的使命，一直忠实于我们的成员国。

This proved to be an invaluable combination during the recent crisis. It is serving us well on the road we are now on.

最近的一次危机已经证明，这些是我们的宝贵特征。它们对于我们正在开展的事业有很多益处。

II. The Road We are On

二、当前道路

Indeed, the Great Recession generated unprecedented challenges—and the Fund responded in an unprecedented way. This was partly through the sheer scale of our financial support: we have provided more than $300 billion to help ease the burden of adjustment for our member countries in need. But that is far from the whole story.

大萧条给我们带来前所未有的挑战，而基金组织的应对方式也史无前例。仅从基金组织的金融支持就能看出这一点：我们提供了3000多亿美元，帮助减轻成员国的调整负担。但基金组织的努力远不止这些。

I think about the IMF’s early call for global fiscal stimulus—then, I was sitting where you are, now; our call for a stronger global firewall, including by increasing the Fund’s resources; and our consistent call to get the pace and mix of fiscal adjustment right. Now, as global growth dynamics are changing, it is critical that we continue to customize our advice to countries’ needs, always sensitive to the impact on growth and on people.

我想到了基金组织早期对全球财政刺激措施的呼吁——那时候我还坐在你们现在的位置；对加强全球防火墙的呼吁（其中包括增加基金组织资源）；以及一直以来的关于确保财政调整的适当速度和搭配的呼吁。现在，随着全球增长动态发生变化，我们必须继续根据各国的需要提供建议，并随时顾及其对增长和人们生活的影响。

Today, many of you are considering how to navigate the eventual exit from unconventional monetary policies in the advanced economies. Here, too, we are offering a neutral and tailored view of the challenges this may present—for all our members.

目前，大家都在考虑先进经济体如何最终退出非常规货币政策。在这方面，我们也针对这一过程可能带来的挑战，向所有成员国提供中立的、有针对性的分析。

This crisis leaves behind the legacy of too little growth and too few jobs. More of our work is focusing on reforms to promote competitiveness, and to create growth and jobs. This resonates, of course, with the first of our Articles—which embeds concern for employment in our mandate.

这次危机留下了增长过慢、失业过高的问题。我们越来越将侧重点放在能提升竞争力、推动增长并增加就业的改革上。这与《协定》的第一条相呼应——该条款内容将就业问题纳入基金组织的职责。

Another defining feature of this crisis has been its global scope—and the Fund has responded globally.

这次危机的另一个本质特征是它的全球性，基金组织一直在全球范围内做出应对。

Yes, Europe has received a lot of attention—not surprising since the Eurozone has been a focal point of the crisis. But over the past five years, we have made 150 new commitments to countries all around the globe.

我们的确非常关注欧洲，这并不奇怪，因为欧元区一直是危机的一个焦点。但在过去五年里，我们对遍及全球的许多国家做出了150项新的承诺。

This support has been delivered in new ways: zero-interest loans to help our low-income members—especially in Sub-Saharan Africa; crisis prevention insurance, including flexible credit lines for Colombia, Mexico and Poland; and capacity building and financial support for our Middle East members facing historic economic and political challenges.

基金组织采取多种新型方式提供支持：发放无息贷款，向低收入成员国，尤其是撒哈拉以南非洲国家提供帮助；通过灵活信贷额度等工具为哥伦比亚、墨西哥和波兰提供危机防范保险；为那些面临历史性经济和政策挑战的中东成员国提供能力建设支持和金融支持。

The crisis has also led us to rethink our macroeconomic analysis and to adapt our policy advice—reflecting, above all, that we operate in an increasingly interconnected world.

这次危机也促使我们反思宏观经济分析，并调整政策建议——毕竟，我们处在一个相互关联越来越紧密的世界。

This means placing even greater emphasis on spillovers—how policies in one country affect others—and doing even more to assess feedback loops and imbalances. We have pushed ahead on this over the past year, including through our Spillover Report; the pilot External Sector Report; and a new strategy for our work in the financial sector—which triggered the crisis in the first place.

这意味着要更加关注溢出效应——即，一个国家的政策如何对其他国家产生影响；这意味着进一步评估反馈回路和失衡。我们过去一年里在推进这方面的工作，包括《溢出效应报告》、试验性《对外部门报告》，以及我们对触发危机的金融部门的新工作战略。

Another innovation is what we call ‘cluster’ analysis—looking at groups of economies that have strong interlinkages or common concerns. We completed these for a group of countries in southern Africa and also for several Nordic countries.

另一个创新是我们所称的“群组”分析——分析具有紧密相互联系或共同问题的一组经济体。我们完成了对南部非洲的一组国家和几个北欧国家的这种分析。

These new ideas and approaches have infused our core business—surveillance, lending, and technical assistance—carried out by our world-class staff.

这些创新思维和方法贯穿于由世界顶级工作人员从事的基金组织各项核心业务——监督、贷款以及技术支持。

You see them when they visit your countries—for technical discussions, for Article IV discussions, for program discussions.

他们也往来于成员国，提供技术援助，开展第四条款措施，进行规划讨论。

I see them at work every day—long days, sometimes long nights as well, and many weekends. I am deeply impressed by their tireless dedication. I am very proud of them—and I hope you are proud of them too. I know that you share my appreciation for the superb people who work at the Fund.

我每天看到他们加班，有时甚至通宵达旦，周末也不休息。他们兢兢业业的不懈努力让我印象深刻，我为他们感到骄傲，我希望你们也为他们感到骄傲。我知道你们也与我一样感谢在基金组织工作的优秀人才。

Let me also express my deep gratitude to our Executive Board. Their guidance and insights have helped ensure that the IMF’s response during this crisis has been effective and timely.

我还想对执董会致以诚挚的谢意。是他们的指导和真知灼见确保基金组织在危机期间能作出了有效和及时的响应。

Our tradition of adapting, while staying focused has enabled us to better serve you, our members.

我们的不断调整、保持专注的传统使们能够更好地服务于你们，我们的成员国。

Again, flexibility, focus, service. These must remain our guideposts for the road ahead.

我再说一遍：保持灵活，突出重点，提供服务。在今后的道路上，我们必须继续沿着这些路标前进。

III. The Road Ahead

三、展望未来

Why venture into the future? Because the future is a promise that only time can deliver.

为什么要向未来行进？因为未来是一种希望，这种希望只有时间才能成就。

At the Fund—Management, staff, and your Executive Directors—we have been giving some thought to the long-term trends that might shape the next generation.

在基金组织，我们的管理层、工作人员和执董们一直在思考，塑造未来二十多年全球形态的长期趋势有哪些。

I will mention three: a more multipolar world; a more financially integrated world; and what I would describe as the “new frontiers of risk”.

我想谈下面三个趋势：更加多极化的世界；金融日益一体化的世界；以及我先前所提出的 “新风险领域”。

The first is a more multi-polar world.

首先是更加多极化的世界。

In just the next decade, the share of emerging and developing economies in global GDP will increase from about half to nearly two-thirds. Per capita incomes will converge across countries, with a rapidly expanding middle class in those nations.

下个十年，新兴经济体和发展中经济体占全球GDP的比例将从二分之一攀升至三分之二。世界各国人均收入将趋同，这些国家的中产阶级将迅速壮大。

So the stage is set for a world, 20 or 30 years from now, where economic power will be far less concentrated in the advanced economies—and more vastly dispersed across all regions.

我们已经预见到了20或30年后的世界格局，那时经济实力将不会聚集在先进经济体，而是广泛分散在世界各地。

What does this mean for the Fund?

这对基金组织来说意味着什么？

We must be even more representative and mirror these shifts—and we are already moving in this direction.

我们需要一个代表性更强的基金组织，以反映这些变化——我们正在朝这个方向努力。

We all know what is at stake with the 2010 governance reforms. Once implemented—I am hopeful it will happen, even if not as quickly as we all would have liked—the IMF will have a platform on which to build further.

我们都了解2010年治理改革的重要性。一旦实施这些改革——我对此持有信心，尽管目前的进展没有我们预期得那么快——基金组织将立于一个不断加筑平台之上。

Representation, of course, is not just about shares or chairs. It is also about how we engage with our members. To be their trusted advisor, our analysis and advice must meet important tests: it must be of the highest quality; it must be objective; it must be even-handed; and it must be of help to you.

当然，代表性并不仅限于投票权比重或席位，还关乎我们如何与成员国接触交流。要成为值得信赖的咨询顾问，我们的分析和建议必须满足一些重要的要求——高质量、客观性、公正性，以及对成员国的有用性。

We are committed to meet those tests.

我们将努力满足这些要求。

They will become even more relevant as our membership faces a world of increasing financial integration—that is my second long-term trend.

随着成员国面对着一个金融一体化程度越来越高的世界（这也是我要讲的第二个长期趋势），这些工作的重要性也越来越突出。

When the IMF was founded, private financial flows barely registered. By the time of the crisis, the degree of financial integration had increased by a multiple of ten or more.

基金组织成立时，私人资金流动很少。但到金融危机出现前夕，金融一体化的程度已经提高了不止十倍。

Today, the world economy is not simply connected, it is hyperconnected. This will propel financial integration on a scale not yet quantified, and to corners of the world not yet reached.

如今的世界经济不是简单地相互关联，而是超级互联。这将促使金融一体化以不可估量的规模推进到目前还未触及的世界各个角落。

As emerging and developing countries grow and converge, their financial interconnections will become deeper and more complex.

随着新兴市场和发展中国家的增长和收入的趋同，它们的金融互联性将进一步深化和复杂化。

Deeper integration will fuel growth, but not without risk. Experience teaches us an important lesson: greater financial integration raises the probability and size of financial crises.

深度的一体化将促进增长，但也会带来风险。历史经验告诉了我们一个重要的道理：金融一体化的加深加大了金融危机的概率，也放大了金融危机的影响范围。

What does it mean for the Fund? And for you?

这对基金组织来说意味着什么？对你们又意味着什么？

It means sharpening our tools for crisis prevention: strengthening our work on financial sector risks, repair, and reform; more thorough and timely analysis of interlinkages and spillovers between countries; and clearer early warning.

这意味着我们要增强危机防范工具：加强在金融部门风险、修复和改革方面的努力；更全面、及时地分析各国之间的相互联系和溢出效应；并提供更明确的预警。

It also means strengthening our support for crisis resolution: adapting our lending toolkit as needed; strengthening our cooperation, including with regional financial arrangements; and ensuring that the burden of adjustment is shared fairly.

它还意味着加大对危机处置机制的支持：根据需要调整我们的贷款工具；加强合作，包括与区域融资安排的合作；确保调整负担的公平分摊。

It also raises the question of ensuring that the Fund will have enough resources to help our members deal with future crises.

它还意味着，要确保基金组织拥有足够的资源来帮助成员国应对未来的危机。

I would also like to take this opportunity to thank all member countries who agreed to transfer gold profits to help meet the financing needs of the low-income countries in the years ahead.

我还想借此机会感谢所有成员国同意将出售黄金所得利润用于满足低收入国家未来融资需求的善举。

The capacity to prevent and resolve crises will be vital.

强化防范和处置风险的能力至关重要。

This is especially true given the “new frontiers of risk” that our membership will face—that is my final long-term trend.

尤其是考虑到成员国将要面临的新风险领域，更是如此。这也是我下面要谈的第三个也是最后一个长期主题。

These are challenges you are well aware of. We, at the Fund, are sharpening our focus on their economic effects. Let me mention a few.

这都是你们都十分关注的挑战领域。基金组织正在重点分析它们的经济影响。下面我具体讲几个。

Demographic shifts will affect growth and stability.

人口转型将影响增长和稳定。

By 2030, there will be 1.1 billion more people in the world than today—97 percent of them will be in emerging and developing countries. One billion people will be 65 years or older. These demographics—and their inter-generational costs—will dramatically affect education, healthcare, savings, pensions, public spending.

到2030年时，世界人口将比现在增加11亿，新增人口中新兴市场和发展中国家占据97%。此外，65岁以上老人将达到10亿。这种人口状况以及代际成本将极大地影响教育、医疗、储蓄、养老金和公共支出。

Income distribution will also affect growth and stability.

收入分配问题也将对增长和稳定造成影响。

Today, inequality stands at levels not seen since the Fund was created. In many countries, this has led to growing frustration and breakdowns in social and political cohesion. The current recovery is not reversing this trend. It remains too uneven—too many people are unemployed, too many people are left out.

目前，收入不平等已经达到基金组织成立以来的最高水平。在很多国家，这已经引发了越来越多的不满，并导致社会和政治凝聚力的失却。目前的经济复苏也未能扭转这个趋势。复苏也是严重失衡的——太多人失业，太多人被甩下。

Environmental sustainability will affect growth and stability.

环境可持续性问题也将影响增长和稳定。

Average temperatures are rising, and with it the risk of more frequent natural disasters, more volatile agricultural output, and more food and water insecurity. In many countries, particularly the poorest, it will exacerbate their already fragile state.

平均气温不断升高，带来更频繁的自然灾害、农业产出的波动加剧、食品和饮用水的愈发不安全。在很多国家，尤其是最贫困的国家，全球变暖将恶化其本已脆弱的局势。

What does this mean for the Fund? And for you?

那么，这些对基金组织来说意味着什么呢？对你们又意味着什么呢？

These issues threaten the macroeconomic health of our member countries. In that case, they must be a part of our work. There are a number of ways that we can help.

这些问题将威胁成员国的宏观经济稳健，因而它们也必须成为基金组织工作的一部分。我们可以通过多种方式提供帮助。

I am not suggesting we go into the territory of others, but we can and must cooperate more effectively, with the Bank and others, drawing on their expertise as needed—and offering ours. I am thinking, for instance, of our fiscal advice on carbon pricing.

我们不会染指其他机构的领地，但是我们能，也必须与世行和其他机构更有效地合作，吸取对我们有用的专业知识，同时分享我们的专长，例如在有关碳定价的财政建议方面。

For another, we can help focus global attention on specific issues. Take, for example, our recent research on energy subsidies. It showed how global savings of almost $2 trillion could be used to help better protect the environment and the poor. The same is true for our research demonstrating the linkage between income equality and sustained growth.

另一方面，我们能推动全球专注于特定问题。对能源补贴的最新研究就是一个例子。该研究分析了如何利用全球能源补贴改革节省下来的2万亿美元，更好地保护环境和贫困人口。其他有用的研究还包括关于收入平等和可持续增长之间的关联。

And, just a few weeks ago, a new IMF study showed that engaging women more fully in the labor market, could increase per capita incomes by almost 30 percent in some cases, but in most by a margin of 3 percent. This could be an economic game-changer. And given that today is The International Day of the Girl, there is no better time to convey this message!

几周之前，一份新的基金组织研究表明，积极支持女性加入劳动力市场能使有些国家的人均收入提高近30%，多数国家也可以提升3%。这个行动将打开世界各国的经济局面。今天正好是国际女孩节，在今天发出这样的讯息是最适当不过了！

In all these areas, the Fund’s comparative advantage, again, is to bring our macro-critical perspective to bear. Maintaining that focus and adapting our approach is what has made the IMF an effective institution in the past. Retaining that focus and adapting our approach will enable us to support our membership effectively in the future.

在这些新领域，基金组织的比较优势在于其宏观批判视角。对这一点的执着以及不断调整我们的工作方法，是基金组织多年来一直是一个高效组织的原因。继续秉承这一传统重点并保持调整，也是我们未来更有效地对成员国提供支持的保障。

Conclusion: Forging a New Future Together

总结：共同塑造美好明天

Mr. Chairman, Governors, Excellencies:

主席、各位理事、各位尊敬的来宾：

Almost 70 years ago, the IMF began with some 40 members. Today, there are 188 of you. Together we are the Fund. You are the Fund.

约70年前基金组织成立时只有40来个成员国。如今，已有188国之众。在一起，我们就是基金组织。你们就是基金组织。

As I stand here with you, I recognize an IMF that was founded on the spirit of international cooperation.

我和在座诸位都意识到，基金组织是建立在国际合作的精神基座之上的。

But, more than that, the principles I have talked about today—flexibility, focus, service—have helped us stand the test of time.

不仅如此，我今天谈到的几个原则——保持灵活，突出重点，提供服务——也帮助我们一同经历了时间的考验。

The philosopher Edmund Burke described society as “a partnership in every virtue, and in all perfection… a partnership not only between those who are living, but between those who are to be born.”

哲人埃德蒙德·柏克将社会形容为“寓于各种道德、一切完美意义上的合作关系??它不仅仅是当世者的合作，而且也是后来者的合作”。

This is how I see the IMF—as a partnership between its member countries. A partnership of the present—and for the future.

这也是我对基金组织的看法——它是我们成员国之间的合作，不论是现在，还是未来。

Thank you.

谢谢！

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