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2. How can emerging market economies prepare for potential market volatility?
2、新兴市场经济体如何做好准备应对潜在市场波动？
Which brings me to my second point: how can emerging markets prepare for potential market volatility? Let me highlight three steps.
我由此接着谈第二点：新兴市场如何做好准备应对潜在市场波动？我重点谈三个步骤。
First, emerging markets need to prepare well in advance. IMF research suggests that countries with better fundamentals were generally less affected by the 2013 taper tantrum and by other monetary policy spillovers from advanced economies.
第一，新兴市场需要提前做好充分准备。基金组织的研究显示，经济基本面较好的国家，受2013年的“缩减恐慌”以及先进经济体其他货币政策溢出效应的影响通常较小。
Second, emerging markets need to ensure that their financial systems are resilient to asset price swings and a sudden withdrawal of funding liquidity. Prudential policies should serve as a first line of defense. Much thinking has been devoted in recent years to the role that macroprudential tools can play, and it is now time to put this into action.
第二，新兴市场需要确保其金融体系能够经受住资产价格的大幅波动和融资流动性的突然撤离。审慎政策应作为第一道防线。近年来对宏观审慎工具的作用开展了大量研究，现在是付诸行动的时候了。
Third, if market volatility materializes, central banks need to be ready to act. Temporary –but aggressive – domestic liquidity support to some sectors or markets may be necessary. In certain conditions, foreign exchange interventions could also be used to dampen exchange rate volatility. These interventions should not be used as a substitute for needed macroeconomic adjustment. Moreover, foreign currency swap lines across countries have proven helpful in providing access to foreign exchange liquidity in times of market stress.
第三，如果市场确实出现动荡，中央银行需要随时准备采取行动。向一些部门或市场提供暂时但有力的国内流动性支持可能是必要的。在某些情况下，还可采取外汇干预，抑制汇率波动。这些干预措施不应取代必要的宏观经济调整。此外，各国间的外币互换额度已被证明有助于在市场面临压力时提供外汇流动性。
International coordination and safety nets can also play a crucial role. For example, central banks and financial supervisors may want to share their policy thinking and contingency plans. Closer cooperation between the IMF and Regional Financing Agreements – such as the BRICS Contingency Reserve Arrangement – would also be helpful.
国际协调和安全网也能发挥重要作用。例如，中央银行和金融监管机构可能希望分享其政策考虑和应急计划。基金组织与区域融资协定（如金砖五国应急储备安排）之间的更紧密合作也是有益的。
3. What is the nature of monetary policy in the “new normal”?
3、“新常态”下的货币政策具有什么性质？
This brings me to my third point – the nature of monetary policy in the “new normal”.
我下面就谈谈第三点——“新常态”下的货币政策的性质。
The question is: should monetary policy go beyond its traditional focus on price stability? One of the key lessons of the financial crisis is that price stability is necessary but not sufficient for financial stability. At times, low inflation actually coincides with brewing financial imbalances. This is why policymakers need to pay more attention to financial stability.
问题是：货币政策是否不应仅仅关注传统的价格稳定目标？金融危机的一个重要教训是，价格稳定是必要的，但不足以保证金融稳定。有时候，低通胀实际上伴随着金融失衡的酝酿。这就是为什么政策制定者需要更加关注金融稳定。
Does that mean that monetary policy should be responsible for price stability and financial stability? The short answer is “No”. Macro- and micro-prudential policies are the first choice to preserve financial stability. They can be better targeted, including to sectors in which risks are rising. Many countries are now adopting strong macroprudential frameworks with supporting institutions and a range of new tools.
这是不是意味着，货币政策应负责保证价格稳定和金融稳定呢？简短的回答是“否”。宏观和微观审慎政策是维护金融稳定的第一选择。这些政策可以有更强的针对性，包括针对那些风险正在增加的部门。许多国家目前正在采纳强有力的宏观审慎框架，这种框架有相关制度作为支撑，并具有一系列新工具。
Of course, prudential policies are not a panacea. Their effectiveness may be limited because of an incomplete policy toolkit or institutional shortcomings. They may also have negative side effects. This is why monetary policy may sometimes need to “lean against the wind” of rising financial imbalances – even as its primary focus remains on price stability.
当然，审慎政策不是“万能药”。这些政策的有效性可能因政策工具不完备或制度缺陷而受到限制。它们也可能产生不利的副作用。这就是为什么货币政策有时可能需要在金融失衡加剧的情况下“逆风而行”——即使其主要关注点仍是价格稳定。
Finally, as countries step up their macroprudential policies, worries are surfacing about central bank independence. If central banks receive broader mandates and use more instruments, will they come under greater political pressure? Could this undermine their independence in pursuing price stability?
最后，随着各国加强宏观审慎政策，对中央银行独立性的担心开始出现。如果中央银行被赋予更广泛的职能，并采用更多工具，那么它们会不会承受更大的政治压力？这会不会削弱它们维护价格稳定的独立性？
We have yet to learn more about this issue. One option is to assign both monetary and macroprudential policies to the central bank, as Ireland and New Zealand have done. Another option is to assign both to the central bank, but with governance that provides some separation between the two functions. The Bank of England was one of the first to adopt this model.
关于这一问题，我们还需要更多地学习和了解。一个选择是，将货币和宏观审慎政策都交给中央银行，像爱尔兰和新西兰的做法。另一个选择是，将这两项职能赋予中央银行，但需建立必要的治理结构，使这两项职能在一定程度上分离开来。英格兰银行是率先采用这种模式的中央银行之一。
There could also be a macroprudential council outside the central bank. This is essentially what the United States has done. As countries continue to experiment with different institutions, we are likely to gain important new insights into which arrangements work and which do not.
也可以在中央银行之外建立一个宏观审慎委员会。这正是美国采取的做法。随着各国继续探索不同的制度安排，我们会取得新的重要认识，了解哪些安排有效、哪些行不通。
Conclusion
结语
Let me conclude.
我来总结一下。
Monetary policy is entering a “new normal” – so too is the Chinese economy. China’s deep structural reforms will lead to slower, safer, and more sustainable growth. Macroprudential policies have already been playing a major role in this adjustment, and will continue to do so going forward. This is good for China and its people – and it is good for the world.
货币政策正在进入“新常态”，中国经济也是如此。中国的结构性深化改革将促成更慢但更安全、更可持续的经济增长。在这一调整过程中，宏观审慎政策已经发挥了重要作用，今后将继续发挥这种作用。这有利于中国及其人民，也有利于整个世界。
As China navigates the “new normal” to become the world’s largest economy, the IMF stands ready to help. I look forward to a fruitful discussion.
在中国驾驭“新常态”、成为世界最大经济体的过程中，基金组织随时准备提供帮助。我期待着富有成效的讨论。
Thank you. Xièxiè.
谢谢。
