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经济学人:印度银行进入Kotak时代

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Finance and Economics;Indian banking;Kotak moment;

财经;印度银行;Kotak的时代

At last, a bank that didn't fall victim to Goldman envy;

一家最终没有沦为“嫉妒高盛”的受害者的银行;

In 1993 two Goldman Sachs partners, Jon Corzine and Hank Paulson, who both later ran the bank, were hosting a dinner in Hong Kong and needed a guest who could talk about India. They invited a relative unknown, Uday Kotak, whose firm financed cars and discounted bills there. Three years later the two firms formed an Indian investment-banking joint venture.

1993年,高盛的两大合作者乔恩·科尔津和汉克·鲍尔森在香港举办了一场餐会,来应宴者须有能力探讨印度的情况。举办餐会的二人后来都开了银行。彼时他们邀请来了当时相对没名气的Uday Kotak。后者的公司在印度为轿车和折扣订单提供资助。三年后,两家公司合资成立了印度投资银行。

In March of this year Goldman's board met in India for the first time. Invited to the shindig were the big beasts of India Inc. Among them was Mr Kotak, now boss of a leading bank and a multibillionaire. “My objective is to build something sustainable that lasts 100 years,” says Mr Kotak, who is upbeat without being hyperbolic, not a trick all Indian tycoons manage.

今年三月,高盛的董事会在印度首次会面。受邀来到舞会的都是印企中的弄潮儿,其中就包括目前身家几十亿,掌管印度顶尖银行的Kotak先生。Kotak先生的说法虽然乐观但并不夸夸其谈:“我的目标是创立的东西能够长存百年”,这个目标可不是每个印度大亨都能做到的。

Kotak Mahindra Group's rise mirrors that of India. The bank was born in 1985, and although it thrived in the insular India of that time it was quick to seek foreign expertise as the economy opened up after 1991. As well as befriending Goldman, it also struck a car-financing pact with Ford. Kotak bought out the partners in both these ventures in 2005-06 as the India boom took off. By that point its investment bank had become a powerhouse capable of taking on the bulge-bracket firms (indeed, Goldman has never hit its stride in India since the venture ended). By March 2007, before the global crisis struck, investment banking made up 60% of earnings.

Kotak Mahindra的企业成长反映出了印度国家实力的增强。1985年成立以来该企业不仅在封闭的印度中繁荣发展,更在1991年经济开放后迅速搜寻外国的专家,与高盛交好、与福特签订汽车资助协议。在印度开始高速增长以后,Kotak买下了高盛两个合伙人的全部股权。完成收购后的Kotak投资银行有实力将全球知名企业的股份收入囊中。(事实上,合资企业终结后,高盛就再也没能很好的在印度发展)。截止到2007年3月全球金融危机爆发前,该行利润的60%都来自投资业务。

There has been a startling change of colours since then. Kotak correctly judged that India's investment-banking scene would slump as too many firms chased a smallish and shrinking revenue pot. And it chose not to go global. Although some emerging-market firms, such as BTG Pactual of Brazil, harbour such ambitions, Kotak lacked muscle and in any case, says Mr Kotak, “the jury is still out” on the Anglo-Saxon style of capital-markets-led banking. Instead Kotak focused on India and on lending. In the year to March 2012, four-fifths of pre-tax profits came from lending. Profits have more than tripled since 2007.

此后的形式发生了惊人的变化。Kotak正确判断出大量的公司会将正在缩水的小型业务发展为收入支柱,进而印度投行业务将会下滑。他决定避免全球化经营。尽管巴西百达等新兴市场的企业怀揣这种宏图大志,但Kotak公司尚且实力不足,Kotak先生说:无论如何,在盎格鲁-撒克逊式资本市场主导下的银行中,“此事还需再议”。相反,Kotak公司将重点放在了印度境内业务和放贷业务上。2012年3月,放贷业务利润高达税前总利润的五分之四,总利润额比07年高出三倍还多。

The shift was not all luck, the bank says. Its roots are in small-ticket lending to middle India, not supping with too-big-to-fail types. The firm's co-managing directors, C. Jayaram and Dipak Gupta, have both spent two decades at the bank and predate the investment-banking adventure. Retail loans are mainly collateralised, and used to finance purchases of cars and houses. Wholesale loans are aimed at semi-rural bits of India and skewed towards purchases of vehicles and equipment. Kotak has shied away from the big infrastructure projects that are hurting other banks. Gross bad debts and restructured loans are a low 1.2% of the total, despite fast growth.

银行提到也不是每次环境变化都是有利的。公司的根基建立在向印度的中产阶级提供小额贷款上,那些大而不倒的客户可不是它的菜。企业的联席董事C. Jayaram和Dipak Gupta在运营投资银行之前都已做了二十年的银行业务。零售类贷款业务大部分是有抵押的,并且被用来买车买房。批发型贷款的目标是半城镇化的印度居民,用途也是买机车和设备。Kotak公司避免了让其他公司受害的大型基建性项目。尽管高速增长,但净坏账和重组贷款占总贷款比率处于低水平的1.2%。

As well as a weak economy, there are potential sources of disruption. New banking licences may be awarded to politically connected industrialists. And Indian banking is due for a bout of consolidation. Both events may be a year or two away, but will still probably come under the watch of Mr Kotak, who owns 41% of the firm. At 53 he has no plans to retire, and wants his family to retain a chunky stake in the long term. That may be no bad thing. Continuity is part of the magic formula. And, unlike some well-known Wall Street firms, there is little sign of hubris. “All of us have middle-class values,” says Mr Kotak. “We never wanted to be grandiose.”

除经济疲软意外,还有其他的潜在不利因素。比如有政治背景的企业家或将更容易得到新的银行协议,而印度银行也将掀起一阵合并潮。这两大事件很可能在一、二年后发生,但也可能发生在控制公司41%股权的Kotak先生眼皮底下。现年53岁的他不仅当下没有任何理由退休,更在长期希望他的家庭能够保留相当的股份。这也许不是坏事。魔法配方中就有一个环节叫做“持续性”。并且,不同于华尔街知名企业的是,这里没有狂妄自大的苗头。Kotak先生说:“我们所有人都有中产阶级价值,而且从没想过自吹自擂。”

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