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Longevity risk
长寿风险
My money or your life
我的钱，或者，你的人生
New financial instruments may help to make pension schemes safer
新的金融工具或许有助于养老金计划更加稳妥
OVER the past 50 years, every forecast of how long people will live has fallen short. Despite fears that obesity and global warming would reverse the trend, life expectancy in rich countries has grown steadily, by about 2.5 years a decade, or 15 minutes every hour. That is good news for health-care providers, cruise companies and humanity. It is most unwelcome for those paying the bills to finance this extended lease on life.
在过去的的五十年间，关于任何人类能活多久的预测相较之前都变短了。尽管人们对于肥胖症以及全球变暖的担心将要扭转这一趋势，在发达国家的平均寿命正在稳步增长—大约每过十年便增长2.5岁，或每过一小时增长15分钟。这对卫生保健的供应商、邮轮公司以及人类确实是个好事。不过这对于那些为这个拓展生命的长度而支付账单的人来说却绝对不是什么受欢迎的事情。
Longevity risk, the chance that people will live longer than expected, is potentially very expensive. Never mind the dramatic impact of a cure for cancer: adding an extra year to the average lifespan increases the world's pension bill by 4%, or around 1 trillion, according to the IMF.
长寿风险，这是使人比预期活的更加久远的机会，可能是非常昂贵的。更别说是癌症治愈的巨大冲击：根据国际货币基金组织的报告：人类的平均寿命每增加一年便会增加4%的养老金账单，大约一万亿美元。
Firms that have sold annuities are the most obvious victims of living longer, as they keep on writing cheques to oldies they expected would have passed on by now. But the most severe risk lies with defined-benefit pension schemes, in which participants are promised an annual payment throughout their retirement, however long it may last. Globally private defined-benefit schemes already have 23 trillion of liabilities—the amount they owe current and future pensioners. Many are grossly underfunded as it is.
那些出售养老金的企业明显是那些平均寿命增长的受害者，因为他们还得继续为那些寿命超过他们预期的的人开支票。但是最严峻的风险取决于分期给付固定型养老金计划，使得参与者承诺每年付款直到她们退休，无论这要持续多久。全球的私人分期固定型养老金计划已经有高达23万亿美元的负债—他们对于是现在以及将来的养老金领取者的负债。他们许多对此都负担不起。
Such statistics are enough to send a pension trustee to an early grave. Yet there is an apparent cure, in the form of “longevity swaps”, which pension schemes can use to insure against the risk that their members will live longer than expected. In July, the pension scheme of BT, Britain's former telecoms monopoly, which is wrestling with a deficit of 7 billion, offloaded the longevity risk on over a quarter of its liabilities to Prudential Financial, an American insurer. BT will pay Prudential a monthly fee and it in turn will pay the extra pension costs if the shuffleboarders in question live longer than forecast.
这些数据都足以让养老金受托人一只脚都踏进坟墓了。但是但表面上还有有治疗方案的，以“长寿互换”的形式，也就是养老金计划免除了他们要承受的成员寿命超过预期的风险。在七月的时候，英国前电信垄断行业—英国电信的养老金计划正在设法解决高达七十亿英镑的赤字，他们已经出售了四分之一的长寿风险给保德信金融集团—一家美国的保险公司。英国电信将每月向保德信支付固定的费用，如果讨论中的老人们苟延残喘的活过了他们的预期保德信将会反过来向英国电信支付额外的费用。
Such arrangements have become increasingly common, with 2014 already setting a record for liabilities offloaded in Britain, the centre of the market. BT's deal, which covered pension debt worth 16 billion, was the biggest yet. Most of the 20-odd deals so far have been between big pension schemes and insurers such as Prudential and Swiss Re. The deals should help them hedge a risk they already have through their other businesses, which pay out if clients die unexpectedly early.
以上的形式已经变得越来越普遍，截至2014年在英国这样世界市场的中心地区，出售负债的记录达到了一个新的高潮。英国电信高达一百六十亿英镑养老金的交易是迄今为止最大的一笔。到目前为止在这20笔奇怪的交易都是在养老金计划以及保险商诸如保诚集团瑞士再保险之间进行的。这些交易将有助于他们对冲通因其他业务所获得的风险—因客户过早意外死亡所带来的支出。
But the potential liabilities that need to be neutralised far exceed what insurers might want to take on. So new investors are being sought to take on risks associated with ever-older clients through “longevity” bonds, whereby outsiders take on the unwanted risks. Bondholders get paid a coupon, but start to lose money if life expectancy pushes beyond a pre-agreed rate.
但是那些需要中和的潜在债务远胜于保险公司想要承担的那部分。因此都在试图争取新的投资人来承担因为“长寿”债券而由那些永远长寿的客户所带来的风险，即由外界来承担那些不必要的风险。债券持有人获得了一张联票，但是如果预期寿命超过了原先率他们就要开始赔钱了。
In 2012 Aegon, a Dutch insurer, passed the longevity risk associated with 12 billion of pension liabilities to investors looking for an asset that does not move in tandem with wider financial markets. Chris Madsen, a managing director there, hopes they will follow the trajectory of “catastrophe bonds”, which pay out if there are no hurricanes or earthquakes in a defined period. These have recently become popular with large investors looking to diversify away from stocks and bonds.
在2012年荷兰全球人寿保险公司，一家荷兰的保险公司，与那些寻找不动资产与更广泛金融市场的投资者们达成了一项关于养老金债务的高达一百二十亿欧元的协议。Chris Madsen，一位常务董事，希望他们能够追随“灾难债券”的轨道，即对于在固定时期内对于没有发生飓风或者地震的偿付。这在大的投资者们正在寻求摆脱股票以及债券的近期变得非常流行。
But whereas protection against natural catastrophes tends to be offered for a year or two, longevity bonds are only useful over longer periods—enough time needs to pass for past projections to have been proved wrong. This does not suit the average investor, particularly in the absence of a liquid secondary market. So far, only a tiny fraction of the 23 trillion in liabilities in private defined-benefit plans have been protected. Whoever hits on the right formula will do a brisk trade.
但是鉴于防范自然灾害往往是限于一至两年，而长寿债券只是在长时间见内有用—需要足够的时间来验证过去预测正确与否。这并不适合普通的投资者，特别是在缺乏流动性的二级市场。到目前为止，只有二十三万亿美元这一小部分的私人养老金固定收益债务得到了保护。任何想到正确方案的人都将能够生意兴隆。
