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经济学人:气候变化 应对争议

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Climate change

气候变化
Dealing with denial
应对争议
America's concessions are more real than China's
较之中国,美国作出更大让步
FIVE years ago next month, disagreement between America and China, the world's biggest greenhouse-gas emitters, scuppered the UN's Copenhagen climate-change conference. On November 11th Presidents Barack Obama and Xi Jinping announced a deal on carbon emissions. This is welcome, with two caveats: China has not conceded much, and Congress will do its best to prevent America from delivering what the president has promised.
五年前的十二月,世界最大的温室气体排放国—美国和中国,两国的分歧使联合国气候变化大会无果而终。11月11日,奥巴马总统与习近平总书记就碳排放问题宣布了一项协议。协议不可否认受到欢迎,但也存在两个隐患:中国并没有做出多大让步,同样美国国会将尽其所能阻止总统奥巴马兑现承诺。

Because America is responsible for a far larger share of the greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere than China, it was bound to accept sharper cuts. Even so, it has made big concessions. America had previously signed up to a cut of 17% below 2005 levels by 2020. This looks achievable because emissions are already falling. The new agreement is for a 26-28% cut by 2025, which would require a doubling in the pace of cuts after 2020.

由于大气中美国所排放的温室气体要远大于中国,它负有更多的责任,因而必定要承受更多的减排任务。即便如此,美国还是做出了重大让步。此前美国就签订协议在2020年前在2005年减排指标的基础上再减排17%。这不是无稽之谈,因为现在美国的碳排放已经在下降。新的减排协议要求在2025年前实现26%-28%的减排任务,这将要求美国在2020年之后加速减排的步伐,估计是以前减排步伐的两倍。
China has agreed that its emissions will peak in 2030, and that the percentage of non-fossil fuels in its energy consumption will rise to 20% by 2030. Just getting a date out of the Chinese is an achievement, but American negotiators had been aiming for 2025. More important, the date the Chinese have agreed to may not be so different from what would have happened without a deal. Earlier this year He Jiankun of Tsinghua University reckoned that China's carbon emissions would peak by “around 2030”, as economic growth is slowing and urbanisation will have mostly run its course by then.
中国同一在2030年其减排行动将达到顶峰,截止2030年,中国非化石燃料能源占能源消费比重的百分比将增至20%。中国能给出一个具体的时间就是一场胜利,然而美国谈判专家想要中国将时间提前至2025年。更重要的是,中国所同意的时间表在没有协议的情况下基本可以说形同虚设。今年年初,清华大学的专家何建坤称中国的碳减排将在2030年达到顶峰,那时候中国的经济增长已经趋缓,城市化进程也趋于完善。
The agreement gives both sides plenty of wriggle room, referring to the countries' “best efforts” and their intentions to reach their targets. Because it is not a treaty, it does not have to be ratified by Congress. But for America to meet its new targets, both Congress and the Supreme Court would have to leave the federal government's current efforts to cut carbon emissions, which involve issuing regulations under the Clean Air Act, well alone.
就两国会尽最大的努力以及他们达成减排目标的意愿来看,该协议为两国都留有较大余地。因为这仅仅只是一份协议而不是公约,它不需要经过国会的批准。但是美国要想达成其新目标,国会和最高法院就必须不管联邦政府现在对碳排放所作出的努力,这包括在清洁空气法案之下制定相关法规。
Those efforts are in the hands of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), which many Republicans would like to abolish altogether. The Republican majority in the House of Representatives has already made it clear that it would like to roll back greenhouse-gas regulations issued by the EPA; the new Republican Senate will probably agree.
而实现这些努力措施的决定权掌握在环境保护局手中,但是共和党人却都想废止这些行动。众议院中共和党中的绝大多数人明确表示将会退回换将保护局发行的温室气体规定,新的共和党众议员很可能会同意。
Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader in the Senate, comes from Kentucky, a coal-producing state, and has already attacked the deal. “This unrealistic plan, that the president would dump on his successor, would ensure higher utility rates and far fewer jobs,” he said. Senator Jim Inhofe, who is likely to head the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, has called climate change “the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people”, and compared the EPA to the Gestapo.
参议院的共和党领导人明奇·麦康奈尔,来自产煤之州肯塔基,已经在攻击该协议。他宣称:“这是一个不切实际的计划,是奥巴马甩给继任者的烂摊子,将会增加公共事业费率而大大减少就业岗位”。参议院吉姆·英霍夫,很有可能会成为参议院环境与公共事业委员会的一把手,称气候变化是“降临到美国人民身上最大的骗局”,并将环境保护局比作盖世太保。译者:占文英
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