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经济学人:乌克兰东部 战争持续伤亡增多

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Eastern Ukraine

乌克兰东部
Fighting on
坚持战斗
As the battle continues and the death toll mounts, the West imposes more sanctions
战争持续,伤亡增多,西方国家加强制裁
THE two presidents could not have offered a greater contrast. Announcing new sanctions against Russia on July 16th, America's Barack Obama read a prepared statement and took no questions. Minutes later, Russia's Vladimir Putin staged an off-the-cuff press conference in Brazil to assail the sanctions' legitimacy. He let emotion take hold, reaching a crescendo during a riff about the “tears of mothers, widows and orphans” in Ukraine.
两位总统都无法达成更好的协议。7月16日美国总统巴拉克·奥巴马宣读了准备好了的声明,宣布对俄罗斯的新制裁并不回应任何问题。几分钟之后,俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京在巴西举行了即席记者招待会来质疑制裁的合法性。他在说到乌克兰“母亲、遗孀和孤儿的眼泪”等反复出现的字节时被情绪影响,音量逐渐加强。

The new sanctions come at a crucial juncture in Ukraine's war. The death toll, both civilian and military, is rising as the fighting creeps into Donetsk and Luhansk, eastern Ukraine's two biggest cities. Russia has not stopped its support for rebel forces, and has even ramped up equipment transfers following the fall of rebel-held Sloviansk two weeks ago. Kiev has implicated Moscow in the recent downing of two Ukrainian military aircraft. After an air strike demolished an apartment block in the city of Snizhne on July 15th, Ukrainian officials called it a Russian provocation, saying none of their planes took off that day. That would imply Russia sending a jet more than 20 kilometres (12 miles) across the border to bomb a residential neighbourhood and poison opinion against Kiev, a cynical notion even for Mr Putin. But to blame Ukraine is to accept that the country's armed forces are dangerously incompetent or stunningly cruel. Neither version suggests the conflict will abate soon.

新的制裁正好出现在乌克兰战争的关键点上。平民和军方的死亡总人数因为乌克兰东部两个最大的城市顿涅茨克和卢汉斯克战火蔓延而不断增加。俄罗斯并没有停止对乌克兰叛军的支持,甚至在两周前叛军控制的斯洛伐克沦陷后,将转让的装备提升了。基辅因最近两家乌克兰军用飞机的坠毁与莫斯科纠缠不清。在7月15日一架飞机撞毁了一栋位于斯尼日内的公寓楼后,乌克兰官方称之为俄罗斯的挑衅,并称乌克兰的飞机在那天均没有起飞。这就意味着俄罗斯派遣了一架飞机越过边境线至少20千米(约合12里),向邻国住宅区投放炮弹,并且刻意抹黑基辅,这即使对普京来讲也过于愤世嫉俗。但是怪罪乌克兰就是承认这个国家的武装力量过于不称职或者惊人的残忍。不论是哪个版本的说法都表明矛盾不会很快结束。
The main targets of the new sanctions are two prominent banks (Vneshekonombank and Gazprombank ) and two energy firms (Novatek and Rosneft). The sanctions do not yet cut the companies off from international business or block their assets. Instead, they restrict access to American debt and equity markets, barring loans of more than 90 days' maturity. Eight defence firms, a few individuals and a Crimean shipping firm face more traditional asset freezes. The European Union has promised to follow suit, with the names of “entities and persons” affected to be released shortly.
新制裁的主要目标是两个主要的银行(Vneshekonombank和 Gazprombank)和两个能源公司(Novatek和Rosneft)。但制裁并没有切断这些公司与国际商务的关系,也没有冻结它们的资产。相反,它们只是限制进入美国债券和股票市场,禁止借贷超过90天的贷款。八家防务公司,少数个体公司和一家克里米亚半岛的船运公司面临着更加传统的资产冻结问题。欧盟承诺也会跟着美国做,取名为“实体与个人”并且会很快产生影响。
The sanctions' effect will depend on whether Mr Putin finds that another blow to his country's wobbly economy hurts more than one to his pride. So far he has bridled, saying the decision would have a “boomerang effect” and that American-Russian relations were being driven to a “dead end”. In any case the fighting in eastern Ukraine has taken on a momentum beyond his control. Kiev's “anti-terrorist operation” is alienating locals. Since the fighting began three months ago, 478 civilians killed, and 1,392 have been wounded. The anger on the ground may be creating conditions for what Alexander Golts, an independent Moscow-based defence analyst, calls “a long partisan war”.
制裁的效果取决于普京能否对俄罗斯摇摇欲坠的经济伤害甚于对他本人骄傲的打击。到目前为止他对此表示不屑一顾,并称决议将会产生“回旋效果”,并且美俄关系将会进入“死胡同”。无论如何乌克兰东部的战争已经超出它的控制范围了。基辅的“反恐作战”正使当地人疏远。自从3个月前战争开始,478名平民死亡,1392名平民受伤。现场的愤怒可能会将情形变为莫斯科国防分析师亚历山大·高斯所说的“长期党派战争”。
The rebels' attitude is “victory or death”. At one militia's base on the edge of Donetsk, where shelling has ravaged residential areas, three weary soldiers take cover in a bomb shelter. “People don't fully comprehend what is happening,” says one, referring to stunned locals who peek out of their windows when they hear the sounds of battle. He might have been speaking of the outside world. At another base, away from the fighting, few think it will stop soon. “It's not fucked up,” says Maksim, giving a soldier's assessment. “It's completely fucked up.” A brawny ex-paratrooper, he once served in the same Ukrainian army he now fights against. He promises to stand till the end.
叛军的态度是“不成功便成仁”。在一个民兵组织驻扎的顿涅茨克的边境,那里的炮击已经摧毁了居民区,3名疲惫不堪的士兵躲在一个防空洞里。“人们并不能完全明白繁盛了什么。”一名士兵说道,指的是震惊的当地人在听到战争的声音时还透过窗子偷看。他或许一直都在说外面的世界。在另一个远离战争的基地中,几乎没人认为这会很快结束。“这还没到一团糟的地步。”马克西姆在给一位士兵做评估时说。“这已经是一团糟了。”一位强壮的前任伞兵说,他曾服役于他现在攻击的同一支乌克兰军队。他保证不到最后一刻绝不倒下。译者:邵夏沁 校对:邵灵玲

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