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经济学人:德国社会抚恤金 方向错误

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Germany's public pensions

德国社会抚恤金
In the wrong direction
方向错误
The government is reversing some of its predecessor's sensible pension reforms
政府正在颠覆之前明智的抚恤金改革政策
AS THE country with the European Union's fastest-ageing population, Germany has repeatedly tweaked its pension system to avert a slow-motion demographic disaster. The biggest reform came during Angela Merkel's first term as chancellor. Then, as now, her centre-right Christian Democrats were yoked with the centre-left Social Democrats in a “grand coalition”. In 2007 the coalition decided that the normal retirement age should gradually rise from 65 to 67.
作为欧盟人口老龄化最快的国家,德国一再调整养老金体系以避免人口增长缓慢带来的人口灾难。最大的改革是在安吉拉·默克尔第一次担任总理期间。而现在,她的中右倾基社党与中左倾社民党联手组成“大联盟”。在2007年联盟决定退休标准年龄应该逐步由65提升到67岁。

Mrs Merkel has since preached similar demographic and economic sanity to most of her EU partners, criticising France in particular for straying off the right path. So it comes as something of a shock that Mrs Merkel, now in her third term and running another grand coalition, is reversing course. On the campaign trail for last September's election, she promised to raise pensions for older mothers. The Social Democrats countered with promises to let certain workers retire at 63 instead of 65 (not to mention 67). As coalition partners, they will do both at once.

默克尔自此便一直向她的大多欧盟伙伴们鼓吹类似人口和经济健康发展的体系,同时特别批评法国偏离了正确的道路。所以默克尔现如今正处于第三个任期中,又在组织另一个大联盟,并且完全颠覆了之前的道路,这多多少少让人感到震惊。在去年九月选举的竞选游说中,她承诺会提高高龄产妇的抚恤金。社民党立刻还击承诺让一些工人在63岁退休而非65岁(期间并未提到67岁)。如今作为联盟伙伴,他们想两项都立时进行。
It falls to Andrea Nahles, the labour minister and a Social Democrat who likes to wave the banner of “social justice”, to push the pension package through parliament by the summer so that it can take effect on July 1st. A previous reform let women with children born after 1992 treat three of their stay-at-home maternity years as if they had worked and paid full pension contributions. The new “mother pension” will be for the 8m-9m women (and very few men) who took time off for children before 1992. They will be allowed to count two of those years, instead of just one, as working years for pension purposes.
这发生在劳工部长及社民党党员安德里亚·那勒思身上。她热衷于高举“社会公正”的旗帜。她想推动国会在夏天便通过养老金方案。这样新政策就可在7月1日生效。先前的改革让子女于92年之后出生的妇女享有三年离岗休养孕假,只要他们曾经工作过,并缴纳了全额的抚恤金。而这项新的“母亲年金”将造福于在1992年前为了子女而离职的800万至900万妇女(和极少数男人)。她们将被允许将离职中的两年而非一年当作养老金要计算的工龄。
The second part of Mrs Nahles's reforms, retirement at 63, is aimed at people who have contributed to the pension system for at least 45 years. But Mrs Nahles wants to count not only years spent working or caring for children or other family members but also periods of short-term unemployment. Separately, she will also boost the pensions of people who cannot work due to disability, and spend more money to rehabilitate them.
那勒思改革的第二部分是63岁退休。这是针对那些至少缴纳了45年养老金的群体。但那勒思希望不要仅仅关注工龄或离职照顾孩子或者其他家庭成员的时间,而且要把短期失业的时间也计算在内。另外,她将推动提高那些因残疾而不能工作的人的养老金,并且她将花更多钱用于帮助这些人康复。
Individually, these proposals may seem noble-minded. But as a package, the plan is “short-sighted and one-sided,” thinks Axel B?rsch-Supan, a pension adviser at the Munich Centre for the Economics of Ageing. It benefits the older generation, which is already well looked after, at the expense of younger people who will have to pay higher contributions or taxes. “The financial and psychological costs of the pension at 63 are disastrous,” Mr B?rsch-Supan says. There will no longer be any incentive to keep working longer. In some cases, people may, in effect, retire at 61, register as unemployed for two years, and then draw their full pensions.
单独来看,这些提议或许看上去很高尚,但作为一个计划,却是“目光短浅并且片面”,慕尼黑人口老龄化经济学研究中心的抚恤金顾问阿克塞尔·博斯克·祖潘如是认为。这个计划是让年轻人缴更多的费用或纳更多的税使已经受到了良好照顾的老年人受益。“63岁为退休年龄让年金体系在金钱和社会心理方面都难以维系。”博斯克·祖潘说。因此人们也没有什么动力在这个年纪继续工作。有的人事实上在61岁就退休了,登记为失业状态,两年之后便可以领取他们的抚恤金了。
Criticism of the pension changes straddles German politics. Social Democrats who were involved in previous reforms, such as Franz Müntefering, a former party boss, are against. So are members of the business-friendly wing of Mrs Merkel's own party. Employers are opposed, because they face labour shortages and are trying to persuade older workers to stay in their jobs longer, not leave sooner. Even the churches are critical, on the grounds that the plan violates “generational justice”. Germany's EU partners are especially upset. Olli Rehn, the European economics commissioner, has said that the commission may even sue Germany if it goes ahead with the plans.
德国政坛无论哪个派别都对这样的年金体系改革批评有加。曾参与了之前改革的社民党党员比如前任主席弗朗茨·明特费林就提出了反对。默克尔自己党派的亲商派也表示反对。雇主们反对是因为他们面临劳工短缺,因此正试图力劝老工人们留下工作尽可能久一些,而非尽早离开。甚至教会也发出了批评声,因为这个计划违反了“世代公正”。德国的欧盟伙伴尤其泄气。欧盟经济专员奥利·雷恩曾说过如果德国率先推行类似计划这些计划,那么委员会甚至可能起诉德国。
It is not only the details of the measures that are disturbing but also the overall signal they send, argues Thomas Straubhaar, director of the Hamburg Institute of International Economics. Germany's “sandwich generation”—those in their 30s and 40s who must pay ever more to support their elders and will get ever less in their own old age—will sulk and might even emigrate. The pension package, he says, is testimony only to “the power of the grey hairs”, as the grand coalition cynically doles out political gifts to a few favoured groups of voters.
令人烦扰的不仅仅是这些措施的细节,还有改革者所发出的整体信号,汉堡国际经济研究所主任托马斯·斯特劳伯哈尔争论到。德国的“三明治一代”在三四十岁是必须花费更多来照顾他们的老一辈,但在他们自己老了之后却只会得到的更少,这使他们感到气愤甚至会移民国外。托马斯称,抚恤金计划只是“老人掌权”的见证,不无讽刺的是,这正如大联盟向其偏爱的少数选民提供政治好处一般。译者:邵夏沁 校对:王化起,周晓婷

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