The economy remains vulnerable to outside shocks.
On October 29th America's House of Representatives voted to restrict arms sales to Turkey,
sanction the country over its purchase of a missile-defence system from Russia, and investigate Mr Erdogan's wealth.
Lawmakers also passed a motion recognising the Ottoman slaughter of Armenians in 1915 as genocide.
Though the sanctions package is unlikely to become law, relations with America are at their worst in decades.
Another source of anxiety is an investigation in New York into
whether Halkbank, a Turkish state lender, circumvented American sanctions against Iran.
In an indictment unsealed on October 15th,
prosecutors allege that senior Turkish officials took millions of dollars in bribes to keep the scheme running.
A former Halkbank executive who was convicted for playing a role in the operation returned to Turkey this summer after two years in prison.
On October 21st he was appointed head of the Istanbul stock exchange.
Turkey expects growth of 0.5% this year, and 5% in 2020.
If interest rates are cut further in pursuit of that goal, the country risks another currency crisis.
The central bank has already burned through billions of dollars in reserves to prop up the lira.
It may no longer have the means to defend the currency in the face of sanctions, or if global interest rates rise.
Turks have run to the dollar for safety. Foreign-currency deposits at Turkish banks have surged.
And lack of independence makes monetary policymakers' job harder. "They have a credibility issue," says Kerim Rota, a former banker.
Interest rates will need to be higher to control inflation than if the market believed the central bank was in charge, he says.
But no one now thinks it can raise rates without Mr Erdogan's say-so.