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Finance and Economics
财经版块
Follow the money
跟着钱走
The only thing that proved transitory about inflation in America in 2021 was the consensus that it would subside.
事实证明，关于美国2021年的通货膨胀，唯一短暂的是人们认为它会逐渐下降的共识。
The left-hand chart shows that analysts consistently revised up their predictions, trailing reality.
左边的图表显示，分析师不断向上修正他们的预测，还是落后于现实。
Consumer prices are now rising by nearly 7% compared with a year earlier, the fastest pace since 1982.
与去年同期相比，消费者价格上涨了近7%，这是自1982年以来的最快增速。
What does the future hold?
未来是什么样子？
The right-hand chart presents two scenarios.
右边的图表显示了两种情况。
In the first, month-on-month inflation immediately falls back to its pre-pandemic trajectory.
第一种情况，月度环比通胀率立即回落至疫情前的水平。
Even so, it would take until the end of 2022 for annual inflation to slow to the 2% pace that used to be the norm.
即便如此，年通胀率要到2022年底才能降至2%，这在过去是常态。
In the second case, consumer prices rise at the same monthly clip seen over the past year.
第二种情况，消费者价格指数月度增幅与去年持平。
Annual inflation would soar to nearly 8% in February, and stay elevated.
2月份，年通货膨胀率将飙升至近8%，并保持在较高水平。
Either way, one prediction seems rock-solid: the Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates in 2022, as the central bank itself indicated on December 15th.
无论哪种情况，有一种预测似乎已成定局：美联储将在2022年开始加息，正如央行自己在12月15日表示的那样。
