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Finance and economics
财经版块
The world economy
世界经济
Putting out fires
灭火
War, high interest rates and financial strife are yet to bring down growth.
战争、高利率和金融冲突尚未拖累经济增长。
Central banks have embarked on austere monetary policy to crush inflation.
各国央行已开始实施紧缩的货币政策以抑制通货膨胀。
Worries about the financial system, from bond markets to commercial property to the health of the banks, are ever-present.
从债券市场到商业地产，再到银行的健康状况，对金融体系的担忧无处不在。
Some 4bn people will head to the polls this year, with unpredictable consequences.
今年将有约40亿人前往投票站，投票结果难以预料。
Most concerning of all, the world is on fire, with conflicts from Ukraine to Israel and the Red Sea.
最令人担忧的是，世界战火纷飞，从乌克兰到以色列和红海都有冲突发生。
Little wonder that analysts speak of “polycrisis”, “hellscapes” and a “new world disorder”.
难怪分析家们都在说“多重危机”“地狱般的景象”和“新世界的混乱”。
And yet, for the moment at least, the world economy is laughing in the face of these fears.
然而，至少就目前而言，世界经济正在笑对这些担忧。
At the start of 2023 almost all economists reckoned that a global recession was due that year.
在2023年初，几乎所有经济学家都认为全球经济衰退将在这一年到来。
Instead, global GDP grew by about 3%.
相反，全球GDP增长了约3%。
The early signs suggest progress is continuing at the same rate this year.
早期迹象表明，今年的经济增长仍在以同样的速度继续。
Data from Goldman Sachs, a bank, indicate that global economic activity is about as lively as it was in 2019.
高盛银行的数据显示，全球经济活动与2019年一样活跃。
A measure of weekly GDP produced by the OECD, a club of mostly rich countries, finds similar results.
经合组织（主要由富裕国家组成）对每周GDP的测量数据也发现了类似的结果。
And a measure of global activity produced from surveys of purchasing managers (so-called PMI data) points to strongish growth across the world.
由采购经理人调查（也叫PMI数据）得出的关于全球经济活动的一项指标显示，全球经济增长较为强劲。
Labour markets are even stronger.
劳动力市场更加强劲。
The unemployment rate across the OECD remains comfortably below 5%.
整个经合组织的失业率仍然保持在5%以下。
The share of working-age folk actually in a job, a better measure of labour-market strength, is at an all-time high.
劳动年龄人口的实际就业比例处于历史最高水平，这是衡量劳动力市场实力的一个更好的指标。
Healthy job markets are boosting family finances, which have been hit by inflation.
健康的就业市场正在提振受到通胀打击的家庭财务状况。
Real household disposable incomes across the G7 shrank by 4% in 2022, but are now growing once again.
G7集团的实际家庭可支配收入在2022年缩水了4%，但现在又开始增长。
True, some countries are doing less well.
诚然，一些国家的表现不那么好。
Some of those coming out of Europe are concerning.
一些欧洲国家的表现令人担忧。
Germany, facing fallout from recent high energy prices and competition in its car industry from Chinese electric-vehicle exports, may be in recession.
德国由于受到近期能源价格居高不下的影响，以及中国电动汽车出口给德国汽车行业带来的竞争，可能正处于衰退之中。
But there are also stronger showings.
但也有一些更强劲的表现。
In January total nonfarm payroll employment in America rose by 353,000—a blowout figure, surpassing almost all expectations.
1月份，美国非农就业总人数增加了35.3万人，这是一个井喷式的数字，几乎超出了所有人的预期。
In Brazil, a country that has faced a number of years of weak growth, the latest PMI data are encouraging.
在经历了多年疲弱增长的巴西，最新的PMI数据令人鼓舞。
So far there does not seem to be much evidence that attacks on shipping in the Red Sea are capsizing the economy.
到目前为止，似乎没有太多证据表明，针对红海航运的袭击让世界经济翻了船。
PMI data suggest that manufacturers face longer delivery times.
采购经理数据表明，制造商面临更长的交货时间。
This is consistent with ships rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, which increases the length of a trip between Shanghai and Rotterdam to 23,000km, from 18,000km.
这与船只从好望角绕行的结果是一致的，绕行将上海和鹿特丹之间的航程从1.8万公里增加到2.3万公里。
However in almost all economies shipping costs are just a tiny fraction of the overall price of a good.
然而，在几乎所有经济体中，运输成本只占商品总价格的一小部分。
Even the most pessimistic wonks are pencilling in a rise in inflation, because of the Red Sea disruption, that amounts to little more than a rounding error.
即使是最悲观死抠细节的书呆子也只会写下一个相当于四舍五入误差的通货膨胀率上升（由于红海的扰乱造成的）。
Why is the global economy so oblivious to the new world disorder?
为什么全球经济对世界范围的新的无序如此视而不见？
High interest rates have managed to bring down inflation from a peak of more than 10% across the rich world to about 6%.
高利率已经成功地将发达国家的通货膨胀率从10%以上的峰值降至6%左右。
This not only raises households’ purchasing power; it also raises their spirits.
这不仅提高了家庭的购买力，还提振了他们的士气。
Indeed, having hit an all-time low in 2022, rich-world consumer confidence has risen sharply.
事实上，富裕国家的消费者信心在2022年跌至历史最低点后，现在又大幅上升了。
Higher borrowing costs have been muted by the fact that a lot of household and corporate debt is on fixed interest rates.
由于许多家庭和企业的债务都是固定利率，因此升高的借贷成本得到了抑制。
There is also a more intriguing possibility: after so many shocking global developments, the world no longer minds chaos as much as it once did.
还有一种更耐人寻味的可能性：在经历了如此多令人震惊的全球事态发展之后，世界不再像以前那样担心混乱。
This is consistent with academic evidence, including a recent paper by two researchers at the Federal Reserve, which suggests that the hit to output from a spike in economic uncertainty fades after a few months.
这与学术发现一致，比如美联储的两名研究人员最近发表了一篇论文，该论文提出，经济不确定性飙升对产出的影响在几个月后就会消退。
Good economists remain vigilant.
优秀的经济学家仍然保持警惕。
Higher interest rates may have a delayed impact on growth.
更高的利率可能会对经济增长产生延迟影响。
Escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war or the Red Sea could provoke another round of shocks to energy supply, feeding into inflation.
俄乌战争或红海局势的升级，可能会对能源供应造成新一轮冲击，从而加剧通胀。
Yet on the flipside, falling inflation and a potential boost to productivity from generative artificial intelligence could prompt GDP to accelerate.
然而，另一方面，不断下降的通胀和生成式人工智能对生产力的潜在提振，可能会促使GDP加速增长。
Moreover, the global economy has already demonstrated its resilience.
此外，全球经济已经显示出其韧性。
Polycrisis, what polycrisis?
多重危机，哪里有什么多重危机？
