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Finance and economics
财经版块
Buttonwood
梧桐树专栏
A history of meltdowns
崩溃的历史
Uranium prices are soaring. Investors should be careful.
铀的价格正在飙升。投资者应该谨慎行事。
It is, by now, a familiar story.
到目前为止，这是一个耳熟能详的故事。
A metal previously only traded in a sleepy corner of commodity markets becomes vital for the energy transition.
一种以前只在大宗商品市场的沉睡角落里进行交易的金属，现在对能源转型至关重要。
Constrained supply and geopolitical jockeying meet forecasts for ever-rising demand.
供应受限和地缘政治角力符合需求不断上升的预期。
Prices surge as investors foresee a crunch.
投资者预见到未来将供应短缺，于是价格飙升。
The only wrinkle in the story is that this time the metal is not used in electric vehicles or solar panels; it is used in the decades-old technology of nuclear reactors.
故事中唯一的破绽是，这一次这种金属不是用于电动汽车或太阳能电池板，而是用于数十年前的核反应堆技术。
Uranium prices are blowing up.
铀价正在暴涨。
Hoarding uranium oxide—which, once processed and enriched, is the main fuel for nuclear bombs and reactors—might seem like a strategy more suitable for supervillains than investors.
氧化铀经过加工和浓缩后，就是制造核弹和反应堆的主要燃料，囤积氧化铀可能看起来是一种更适合超级反派而非投资者的策略。
But speculators now have a number of ways to gain exposure.
但投机者现在有许多方法来获得参与机会。
Stockmarket darlings include Yellow Cake, a firm that buys and stores the stuff, whose share price is up by 160% over the past five years, and Sprott Physical Uranium Trust, a fund that does the same and has enjoyed returns of 119% since its launch in 2021.
股票市场的宠儿包括黄饼和Sprott物理铀信托，黄饼是一家购买和储存铀的公司，其股价在过去五年中上涨了160%，Sprott物理铀信托是做同样事情的基金，自2021年成立以来获得了119%的回报。
Hedge funds have got in on the action, too, reportedly stockpiling the metal and buying options on uranium from banks.
对冲基金也参与了铀交易，据说主要是囤积铀，并从银行购买铀的期权。
According to UxC, a consultancy, prices on the spot market have more than tripled from $30 a pound in January 2021 to a recent peak of over $100, the highest in 16 years.
根据咨询公司UxC的数据，铀在现货市场的价格已经从2021年1月的每磅30美元上涨了两倍多，最近达到了每磅100美元以上的峰值，这是16年来的最高水平。
An initial rise was spurred by speculation that Western governments would impose sanctions on Rosatam, a Russian firm.
最初出现涨幅是因为人们猜测西方政府将对俄罗斯国家原子能公司实施制裁。
A coup in Niger in July prompted another rise.
尼日尔7月份的一次政变引发了另一次上涨。
Then in September Kazatomprom, the world’s biggest supplier, warned that a shortage of sulphuric acid would reduce production.
然后在9月份，世界上最大的铀供应商哈萨克斯坦国家原子能公司警告说，硫酸短缺将减少铀的产量。
At the same time, Western countries are trying to build their own supply chains, since Rosatom currently has more than half the world’s enrichment capacity.
与此同时，西方国家正试图建立自己的供应链，因为俄罗斯国家原子能公司目前拥有全球一半以上的浓缩能力。
In December America, Britain, France and Japan together committed $4.2bn to build facilities to separate uranium-235 isotopes, the only naturally occurring material that can undergo fission, from the more common uranium-238.
去年12月，美国、英国、法国和日本总共承诺投资42亿美元，用于建设将铀235同位素从更常见的铀238中分离出来的设施，铀235是唯一一种可以发生裂变的天然物质。
The world needs reliable low-carbon electricity and nuclear power is one of the few options available.
世界需要可靠的低碳电力，核电是为数不多的可用选择之一。
Governments have announced plans to expand capacity: Sweden has pledged another two reactors by 2035 and the equivalent of ten more by 2045; last year Japan restarted three that had been mothballed; America recently connected its first new reactor in eight years.
各国政府已经宣布了扩大核电产能的计划：瑞典承诺到2035年再增加两个反应堆，以及到2045年产能相当于再增加10个反应堆；去年日本重新启动了三个被闲置的反应堆；美国最近连接了它八年来的第一个新反应堆。
All of this is small-bore compared with China, which plans to build another 150 reactors over the next decade.
所有这些与中国相比都不值一提，中国计划在未来十年再建造150座反应堆。
Little wonder that investors are pouring in.
难怪投资者蜂拥而至。
Yet there are reasons for caution, which start with the supply crunch.
然而，有理由保持谨慎，首先就是供应的短缺。
Although Niger’s coup was dramatic, the country is only the seventh-largest uranium supplier and it is not clear that there will be a permanent reduction in output.
尽管尼日尔的政变是戏剧性的，但该国只是第七大铀供应国，而且目前还不清楚产量是否会永久减少。
Moreover, many governments have stockpiles, often acquired for defence purposes, which can be released for civilian use.
此外，许多国家的政府有库存，通常是出于国防目的，但也可以释放出来用于民用。
Investors can only guess how much policymakers will be willing to let out.
投资者只能猜测政策制定者会愿意释放多少铀库存。
And energy firms have stockpiles of their own, which are often sufficient to keep them going for a few years.
能源公司也有自己的库存，这些库存通常足以用好几年。
Then consider demand.
然后再考虑需求。
Nuclear’s history is one of false starts: it has never delivered the too-cheap-to-meter power once promised.
核能的历史一开始就不成功：它从来没有提供曾经承诺的便宜到不需要安电表的电力。
During oil shocks in the 1970s uranium prices rose more than sixfold, reaching a peak of $44 in 1979, equivalent to $198 today.
在20世纪70年代的石油危机期间，铀价上涨了6倍多，在1979年达到44美元的峰值，相当于现在的198美元。
Owing to subsequent falls in oil prices, uranium prices had halved by 1981.
由于随后的石油价格下跌，到1981年，铀价已减半。
Later, in the 2000s, a bubble grew.
后来，在本世纪头十年，泡沫增长了。
Prices jumped from $10 in 2003 to $136 in 2007 as investors forecast a nuclear renaissance thanks to “peak oil”, a supply crunch and dwindling Russian stockpiles.
铀价从2003年的10美元跃升至2007年的136美元，原因是投资者预测，由于“石油开采峰值”、供应紧缩和俄罗斯石油库存不断减少，核能将会迎来复兴。
Things went wrong during the global financial crisis of 2007-09; Japan’s Fukushima accident in 2011 appeared to be the final nail in the coffin.
但在2007-09年全球金融危机期间情况出了问题，2011年日本福岛事故似乎给核能的棺材上钉下了最后一颗钉子。
For a happy ending this time, nuclear power must finally come good.
为了这一次能有圆满结局，核电必须最终逆风翻盘。
Demand—from energy firms, not just speculators—must rise, which will require someone to pay nuclear’s colossal upfront costs or make the power source cheaper.
对核电的需求--来自能源公司，而不仅仅是投机者--必须上升，这将需要有人支付核电前期的巨额成本，或者让核电的来源变得更便宜。
Both are plausible: net-zero targets might mean governments are willing to spend big; a number of startups are working on small modular reactors, which would lower construction costs if successful.
两者都可行：碳净零目标可能意味着政府愿意投入巨资；一些初创公司正在研究小型模块化反应堆，如果成功，这将降低建设成本。
China, which has the most ambitious plans to build capacity, has so far managed to contain costs.
中国的产能建设计划最为宏大，目前已设法控制住了成本。
But return to the example of other metals.
但回到其他金属的例子上来。
When prices surge, more supply is almost always found and customers discover cheaper alternatives.
当价格飙升时，几乎总是能找到更多的供应，客户也会找到更便宜的替代品。
That is what happened with cobalt, lithium and nickel.
这就是钴、锂和镍曾经经历的情况。
High prices are the solution to high prices, goes the saying in commodity markets.
大宗商品市场上有一句话说，高价格就是解决高价格的办法。
How confident can investors really be that uranium is different?
投资者到底能有多大的信心去相信铀是不一样的？
