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Finance and economics
财经版块
America's economy
美国经济
Spent on rent
租房开支
The mysterious link between a tight housing market and stickier inflation.
供不应求的独栋住房市场和更为顽固的通胀之间的神秘关联。
During the past few years of inflation, sceptics have insisted that governments are undercounting price rises—usually without much evidence to support their claims.
在过去几年的通货膨胀里，怀疑论者坚持认为政府少算了物价上涨，但通常没有足够的证据支持他们的说法。
But a new controversy in American economics has highlighted the challenge of accurately measuring prices.
但美国经济学中的一个新争议凸显了准确衡量价格的挑战性。
Only this time the implication points in the opposite direction, suggesting that inflation may prove a more stubborn foe.
只是这一次的暗示指向了相反的方向，表明通货膨胀可能是一个更为顽固的敌人。
At issue is the manner in which housing fits into the consumer-price index.
争论的焦点是住房以什么方式纳入消费者价格指数。
To the surprise of many casual observers, statisticians typically do not include property prices in their inflation gauges since they view housing as an investment good, perhaps a once-in-a-lifetime purchase for homebuyers.
令许多马虎的观察家感到惊讶的是，统计学家通常不将房价纳入通胀衡量指标，因为他们认为住房是一种投资品，一辈子可能就只买一次房子。
However, statisticians do know that housing is a big part of personal budgets and want to track regular changes in the price of shelter, much as they do for other consumer products.
然而，统计学家也确实知道住房是个人收支中的很大一部分，他们希望跟踪住房价格的定期变化，就像他们跟踪其他消费品的价格一样。
So instead of measuring property prices outright, their inflation indices factor in how much people pay for rent—or would pay for rent if they leased their own homes.
因此，他们的通货膨胀指数不是直接衡量房地产价格，而是考虑人们支付多少租金，或者如果他们自己的房子是出租的，他们会支付多少租金。
The latter is known as owners’ equivalent rent (OER).
后者被称为业主等价租金（OER）。
In America OER accounts for about a quarter of the consumer-price index, making it the single biggest component.
在美国，业主等价租金约占消费者价格指数的四分之一，是占比最大的唯一一个部分。
Direct rent, by contrast, is just 8% of the index, because renting is less common: about two-thirds of American households own the homes they live in.
相比之下，直接租金仅占该指数的8%，因为租房并不常见：大约三分之二的美国家庭居住的房子都是他们自己的。
Where things get tricky is estimating the OER value.
棘手的地方在于估计业主等价租金的值。
It is not as simple as totting up all market rents and assuming that homeowners would pay the same.
这并不像把所有市场租金加起来，然后假设房主会支付同样的租金那么简单。
Rather, wonks assign a heavier weight to rental prices for single-family homes, which are similar to the kinds of houses that people own.
相反，抠细节的统计学家们对独栋住宅的租金赋予了更大的权重，而人们拥有的房屋类型也差不多就是这种独栋住宅。
The problem is that there is a relative dearth of single-family homes for rent, giving statisticians a small sample with which to work.
问题是，出租的独栋住宅相对较少，所以统计学家们能利用的样本较少。
These intricacies have come to the fore as concerns mount about the persistence of inflation in America.
随着人们越来越担忧美国持续不断的通货膨胀，这些错综复杂的问题又显现出来。
In January the consumer-price index rose by 0.3% from a month earlier, above forecasts for a 0.2% increase, suggesting that the Federal Reserve is struggling to tame inflation.
一月份消费者价格指数较前一个月上升了0.3%，超过了预期的0.2%，这表明美联储在抑制通货膨胀方面表现得很吃力。
But nearly half of the broader inflation increase was attributable to a rise in OER alone.
但近一半的通胀率增长仅仅是因为OER的上升。
And strikingly, the rise in OER was much higher than the rise in market rents.
引人注目的是，OER的涨幅远远高于市场租金的涨幅。
The question is whether OER is being estimated correctly.
问题是，对OER的估算是否过高。
It is true that single-family homes have commanded larger rent increases than flats recently, a reflection of the fact that few such homes are available to tenants.
确实，最近独栋住宅的租金涨幅比单元房更大，反映出租客可租的独栋住宅不多。
Moreover, the Bureau of Labour Statistics, which compiles the consumer-price index, tweaked its methodology in January, lifting the weight of detached single-family homes in OER by about five percentage points, part of its constant efforts to capture changes in how people live.
此外，编制消费者价格指数的劳工统计局在一月份调整了其计算方法，将独立式独栋住宅在OER中的比重提高了约5个百分点，这是劳工统计局一直在努力捕捉人们生活方式变化的一个办法。
The combination of higher rents plus a larger weighting does explain much of the rise in OER.
更高的租金加上更大的权重，确实解释了OER上升的大部分原因。
Added to that, though, is the inevitable volatility of extracting prices from the small sample of single-family homes for rent.
除此之外，从出租的独栋住宅的小样本中提取价格也不可避免地会出现波动。
This raises the possibility that at least some of the high OER reading was a fluke.
这就提出了一种可能性，即至少有一些OER高值的出现是偶然。
Still, the bigger picture is that OER inflation is running well above pure rent inflation.
不过，更宏观的情况是，OER通胀率远远高于纯租金通胀率。
Continued tightness in the market for single-family homes ensures the divergence will probably continue for some time, and this in turn will place upward pressure on general measures of inflation.
独栋住宅市场的持续供不应求表明这种差距很可能会持续一段时间，这继而又将对通胀的总体指标造成上行压力。
The details of how to calculate OER can seem abstruse.
如何计算OER的细节看起来很深奥。
But the conclusion is clear: by feeding into stickier inflation, it may well deter the Fed from cutting interest rates any time soon.
但结论是明确的：通过促使通胀变得更顽固，OER很可能会让美联储不敢在短期内降息。
