评论
打印
Finance and economics
财经版块
Fighting inflation
抗击通胀
Interesting times
有趣的利率时代
Japan ends the world’s greatest monetary-policy experiment.
日本结束了世界上最大型的货币政策实验。
On March 19th officials at the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced that, with sustainable inflation of 2% “in sight”, they would scrap a suite of measures instituted to pull the economy out of its deflationary doldrums—marking the end of a radical experiment.
3月19日，日本央行的官员宣布，随着2%的可保持通胀率“近在眼前”，将取消一系列旨在将经济从通货紧缩的低迷状态中拉出来的措施，这标志着一项激进实验的结束。
The bank raised its interest-rate target on overnight loans for the first time since 2007, from between minus 0.1% and zero to between zero and 0.1%, becoming the last central bank to scrap its negative-interest-rate policy.
日本央行自2007年以来首次上调隔夜贷款利率目标，从负0.1%—0上调到0—0.1%，成为最后一家取消负利率政策的央行。
It will also stop buying exchange-traded funds and abolish its yield-curve-control framework, a tool to cap long-term bond yields.
日本央行还将停止购买交易所交易的基金，并废除其收益率曲线控制框架（一种限制长期债券收益率的工具）。
Even so, the BOJ stressed that its stance would remain accommodative: the withdrawal of its most unconventional policies does not augur the beginning of a tightening cycle.
即便如此，日本央行强调其仍将保持宽松的政策：其最为非常规政策的退出并不预示着紧缩周期的开始。
This shift reflects changes in the underlying condition of the Japanese economy.
这一转变反映了日本经济底层情况的变化。
Inflation has been above the bank’s 2% target for 22 months.
22个月来，通货膨胀率一直高于银行2%的目标。
Recent annual negotiations between trade unions and large companies suggest wage growth of more than 5% for the first time in 33 years.
最近工会和大公司之间的年度谈判表明，工资增长将在33年来首次超过5%。
“The BOJ has confirmed what many people have been suspecting: the Japanese economy has changed, it has gotten out of deflation,” says Hoshi Takeo of the University of Tokyo.
东京大学的竹尾保志说：“日本央行证实了许多人一直在怀疑的事情：日本经济已经发生了变化，已经摆脱了通货紧缩。”
That hardly means Japan is booming—consumption is weak and growth is anaemic.
这并不意味着日本步入了繁荣：日本的消费依然疲软，增长依然乏力。
But the economy no longer requires an entire armoury of policies designed to raise inflation.
但日本经济不再需要一整套提高通胀率的政策。
When Ueda Kazuo, the BOJ’s governor, was asked what he would call his new framework, he said it did not require a special name.
当日本央行行长植田和男被问及他将如何命名这一新的政策框架时，他说不需要一个特定的名称。
It was “normal” monetary policy.
这就是“正常”的货币政策。
Japan’s economy slid into deflation in the 1990s, following the bursting of an asset bubble and the failure of several financial institutions.
日本经历了资产泡沫破裂、数家金融机构倒闭后，经济在20世纪90年代陷入通货紧缩。
The BOJ began trying new tools, cautiously at first.
于是日本央行开始尝试新的工具，一开始是谨慎地使用。
Although in 1999 the bank cut interest rates to zero, it raised them the next year, only to see prices fall again (one of two board members opposed to the decision at the time was Mr Ueda).
虽然1999年日本央行将利率降至零，但第二年又提高了利率，结果是价格再次下跌（当时反对提高利率的两名董事之一就是植田）。
The BOJ then went further, becoming the first post-war central bank to implement quantitative easing—the buying of bonds with newly created money—in 2001.
日本央行随后采取了进一步的措施，在2001年成为二战后第一个实施量化宽松政策的央行，量化宽松即用新印的钱购买债券。
Yet it did not fully embrace the wild side of monetary policy until the arrival of Kuroda Haruhiko as governor in 2013.
然而，直到2013年黑田东彦出任行长，日本央行才开始完全拥抱疯狂的货币政策。
Backed by then-prime minister Abe Shinzo, Mr Kuroda embarked on a programme of vast monetary easing, vowing to unleash a “bazooka” of stimulus.
在当时的首相安倍晋三的支持下，黑田东彦开始了一项大规模的货币宽松计划，誓言要发射一个刺激经济的“巴祖卡炮”。
The bank adopted a 2% inflation target and began “quantitative and qualitative easing”, which saw enormous government-bond purchases coupled with aggressive forward guidance (promises to keep policy loose).
央行采纳了2%的通胀目标，并开始了“量化宽松和质化宽松”，即大量购买政府债券，并积极地对未来进行引导（承诺保持宽松政策）。
In 2016 the bank set its key overnight rate at minus 0.1%, meaning that commercial banks were in effect charged for depositing with it, and then implemented yield-curve control in order to restrain longer-term interest rates, too.
2016年，日本央行将其关键隔夜利率设定为负0.1%，这意味着商业银行存钱实际要被扣钱，然后实施了收益率曲线控制，以抑制长期利率。
Although inflation picked up a bit, it never consistently reached the central bank’s target during Mr Kuroda’s term, which ended nearly a year ago.
尽管通胀率略有回升，但在黑田东彦的任期内（任期在一年前结束），它从未持续地达到央行的目标。
Officials are now confident that inflation has at last become embedded.
官员们现在确信，通胀率终于已经稳固下来了。
Supply-chain snags and rising import costs pushed up inflation at first, but price rises have since become widespread.
起初供应链的麻烦和进口成本的上升推高了通货膨胀率，但此后价格上涨变得更普遍。
GDP growth figures for the last quarter of 2023 were recently revised into positive territory owing to an uptick in capital expenditure.
由于资本支出小幅上升，2023年最后一季度的GDP增长数据最近被修正为正值。
